U.S. communications carrier capital spending will dip 7.3 percent in 2009, Yankee Group analysts now predict. That's less than the 10 percent figure some of us have speculated about, purely on a non-scientific “gut feeling” basis.
Actual declines will vary based on industry segment. Wireless investment is going to continue at healthier levels, as will broadband investments related to IPTV rollouts and broadband access generally. As you would predict, investments in legacy voice are going to be starved, by comparison.
Telecommunications carriers globally will chop about $12 billion from their capital budgets, decreasing their spending from $284 billion in 2008 to $272 billion in 2009.
Some observers will find that figure relatively heartening news, as it represents a bit more than a four percent dip, at least globally. And some regions and countries actually will increase spending, the Asia Pacific region in particular.
Globally, capex, as a percentage of revenue, will decline from 15.2 percent of revenues in 2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
U.S. Telecom Capex to Drop 7% in 2009
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
U.S. IT Forecasts Revised: Down in 2009 (no surprise)
Gartner and Forrester have both lowered their expectations of U.S.technology spending this year.
Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.
Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.
Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.
All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.
Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.
Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.
Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.
All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Ribbit Announces KillerApp Winners
Ribbit has announced the winners of its "KillerApps" challenge, a contest for developers of new applications using the Ribbit voice platform.
Lucid Viewer won the "Media, Advertising, Entertainment" category for its authoring tool that allows developers to create immersive experiences. The tool allows users to call up stores directly from a Flash interface, such as a three-dimensional view of a street in Rome, Italy. Lucid Viewer also won the Grand Prize in Ribbit's KillerApps contest.
Sugared Frog won the "Business" category, with an app that integrates SugarCRM's open source solution with Ribbit voice apps. Sugared Frog allows users to organize their voicemail, and dictate notes and memos right from their mobile phones.
Save A Life won the "Social Networking and Communication" prize by creating an Adobe AIR app that allows you to quickly reach a group of friends or community members by phone. Currently, the application focuses on blood donations, though the program could be used for other donation campaigns or emergency services as well.
CYHAA won the "Breakthrough" category. CYHAA, which stands for Control Your Home, Anytime, Anywhere allows users to control their smart home devices with their voice right from their phones.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Verizon and AT&T: No, Thank You, to Stimulus Funds
Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T might very well pass on applying for any of the "broadband stimulus" programs, at least in part because of "strings" attached to the money.
Neither company is well placed to apply for the Rural Utilities Service portion of the funds targeted at rural areas, and access provisions might be unpalatable for the National Telecommunications & Information Administration grants.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
More Wireless Broadband Substitution Coming?
It is no idle speculation to consider that more users will look at wireless broadband substitution as downlink speeds rise into the 50 to 60 Mbps range in the near future. And Verizon might be thinking along those lines itself, though mobile providers without wired assets to cannibalize have been more aggressive, so far.
There is speculation Verizon will introduce such a router at CTIA this week.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Zer01 Plays the "Interconnecting Carrier" Angle
Some observers might wonder how the new mobile service created by Zer01 is different from existing applications that provide VoIP calling over a mobile handset. Recently, Skype for Apple iPhones has gotten lots of attention, for example.
“I do not really see any comparison to the Zer01 value add here,” says Mark Richards, Pervasip CIO. Pervasip provides the underlying network, billing and customer care for the Zer01 effort.
The Skype calling feature uses a Wi-Fi connection, not the AT&T data network, and can require per-minute calling charges, where Zer01 uses an IP wide area network and a GSM wireless network for access.
And Richards argues there is a difference between an downloaded application running on top of a mobile operating system, and a native application. “To run VoIP over GSM is stodgy,” Richards says. “It is not simple.”
One problem is that the downloaded app is always contending for processor resources. To run a VoIP path on top of the OS, rather than natively on the phone, compression and decompression is required, and that uses processor resources.
Calling gateways is more complex, so there is some kind of inconvenience, he argues. “I have not yet seen a seamless desktop process that really changes habits,” says Richards.
United Technologies Group has developed a mobile application that seamlessly sits on the cell phone and takes over a phone’s dial pad by replacing it with its own, Richards notes.
The other great confusion is over the business model. To date, many firms that do not own their own mobile networks have operated as mobile virtual network operators, leasing wireless capacity and services on a wholesale basis, and then selling at retail.
Those of you familiar with the “unbundled network element-provisioned” (UNE-P) model will see the similarity. An MVNO or UNE-P reseller essentially is engaging in price arbitrage.
The difference here is that Pervasip is a licensed carrier. It has the legal right of interconnection with other carriers. So Zer01 essentially and simply interconnects with GSM mobile providers around the world. It is not a reseller of their services.
“I do not really see any comparison to the Zer01 value add here,” says Mark Richards, Pervasip CIO. Pervasip provides the underlying network, billing and customer care for the Zer01 effort.
The Skype calling feature uses a Wi-Fi connection, not the AT&T data network, and can require per-minute calling charges, where Zer01 uses an IP wide area network and a GSM wireless network for access.
And Richards argues there is a difference between an downloaded application running on top of a mobile operating system, and a native application. “To run VoIP over GSM is stodgy,” Richards says. “It is not simple.”
One problem is that the downloaded app is always contending for processor resources. To run a VoIP path on top of the OS, rather than natively on the phone, compression and decompression is required, and that uses processor resources.
Calling gateways is more complex, so there is some kind of inconvenience, he argues. “I have not yet seen a seamless desktop process that really changes habits,” says Richards.
United Technologies Group has developed a mobile application that seamlessly sits on the cell phone and takes over a phone’s dial pad by replacing it with its own, Richards notes.
The other great confusion is over the business model. To date, many firms that do not own their own mobile networks have operated as mobile virtual network operators, leasing wireless capacity and services on a wholesale basis, and then selling at retail.
Those of you familiar with the “unbundled network element-provisioned” (UNE-P) model will see the similarity. An MVNO or UNE-P reseller essentially is engaging in price arbitrage.
The difference here is that Pervasip is a licensed carrier. It has the legal right of interconnection with other carriers. So Zer01 essentially and simply interconnects with GSM mobile providers around the world. It is not a reseller of their services.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Private Interests, Public Purposes
For every public purpose, there is a corresponding private interest.
http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2009/03/microsoft-broadband-stimulus-should-help-hospital-schools.ars
http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2009/03/microsoft-broadband-stimulus-should-help-hospital-schools.ars
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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