Is Cable's WiMAX Business Model Anything Like Wi-Fi?

Cable operators continue to have more questions about wireless services than they do about any other products delivered over their wired broadband plant. They should. Wireless would be the first service not delivered over networks they fully control, and which build relatively logically on what their existing networks offer, in terms of value.

Wireless wouldn't be the first service they've ever offered that must take share from other providers in a saturated market. Cable digital voice clearly has had to take share from incumbent telcos. But core video entertainment and cable modem services essentially were "green field" services that only had to grab attention, not steal market share.

Wireless voice and data are not businesses where cable has existing core competence, and a price "race to the bottom" is not where cable traditionally is most comfortable.

Everybody seems to think mobile video and content is where cable might leverage its formidable assets in a more-logical way. But no killer app yet has emerged.

Should that tack succeed, the business model for WiMAX might be along the lines of how Cablevision Systems Corp. positions it own metro Wi-Fi offerings. Essentially wireless access drives the value and profitability of cable modem service.

So if "cable modem services" provide the business model for providing free metro Wi-Fi, perhaps wired video entertainment will provide the ultimate business model for WiMAX.

Thinking About Absconding with a Netbook Under Contract?

LM Ericsson has developed a new modem, intended for use in netbooks sold at a discount by wireless providers, that will remotely disable the computer if a customer on a contract stops paying his or her bills. Of course, there are other applications as well. An enterprise information technology manager dealing with a stolen laptop could lock down data on the machine to ensure security.

Lenovo Group, which makes the enterprise-oriented IBM ThinkPad line of PCs, has said it will build this sort of feature into its laptops.

The new Ericsson modem also is said to have the ability to remain active even when a PC is turned off, perhaps listening for messages such as email or Skype calls.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090331/ap_on_hi_te/tec_techbit_laptop_modems

Opera for Virgin Mobile

Opera Software will be available on some Virgin Mobile USA handsets as part of a deal that makes Virgin Mobile USA a distributor of the mobile browser. Helio was the first U.S. carrier to sign a deal with Opera Mini in the United States.

Open Range to Bring WiMAX to 6 Million Rural Homes

For those of you who might be wondering, high-speed broadband in rural America is not in as dire straights as you might think. There's a problem, but it is being solved. Consider that estimates of rural un-served or underserved households range from six million to 10 million.

Then consider that just one company--Open Range Communications--has raised enough money to bring fourth-generation wireless to about six million U.S. households in rural U.S. areas. And construction is about to begin.

Level 3 Communications has announced an agreement with Open Range Communications, which intends to deliver wireless broadband using WiMAX to 500 rural communities in 17 states, reaching an audience of six million potential subscribers.

Open Range will leverage Level 3’s extended on-net services to offer high-speed Internet and voice services to millions of previously un-served or underserved communities across North America.

Open Range has gotten a $100 million investment by One Equity Partners, the private equity arm of JPMorgan Chase and a loan provided by the United States Department of Agriculture's Rural Development Utilities Program (RDUP) for $267 million.

Personally, I'd argue Open Range is going to build more broadband facilities, reaching more potential customers, than every single project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ("broadband stimulus"). And for a lot less money.

U.S. Telecom Capex to Drop 7% in 2009

U.S. communications carrier capital spending will dip 7.3 percent in 2009, Yankee Group analysts now predict. That's less than the 10 percent figure some of us have speculated about, purely on a non-scientific “gut feeling” basis.

Actual declines will vary based on industry segment. Wireless investment is going to continue at healthier levels, as will broadband investments related to IPTV rollouts and broadband access generally. As you would predict, investments in legacy voice are going to be starved, by comparison.

Telecommunications carriers globally will chop about $12 billion from their capital budgets, decreasing their spending from $284 billion in 2008 to $272 billion in 2009.

Some observers will find that figure relatively heartening news, as it represents a bit more than a four percent dip, at least globally. And some regions and countries actually will increase spending, the Asia Pacific region in particular.

Globally, capex, as a percentage of revenue, will decline from 15.2 percent of revenues in 2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009.

U.S. IT Forecasts Revised: Down in 2009 (no surprise)

Gartner and Forrester have both lowered their expectations of U.S.technology spending this year.

Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.

Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.

Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.

All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.

Ribbit Announces KillerApp Winners

Ribbit has announced the winners of its "KillerApps" challenge, a contest for developers of new applications using the Ribbit voice platform.

Lucid Viewer won the "Media, Advertising, Entertainment" category for its authoring tool that allows developers to create immersive experiences. The tool allows users to call up stores directly from a Flash interface, such as a three-dimensional view of a street in Rome, Italy. Lucid Viewer also won the Grand Prize in Ribbit's KillerApps contest.

Sugared Frog won the "Business" category, with an app that integrates SugarCRM's open source solution with Ribbit voice apps. Sugared Frog allows users to organize their voicemail, and dictate notes and memos right from their mobile phones.

Save A Life won the "Social Networking and Communication" prize by creating an Adobe AIR app that allows you to quickly reach a group of friends or community members by phone. Currently, the application focuses on blood donations, though the program could be used for other donation campaigns or emergency services as well.

CYHAA won the "Breakthrough" category. CYHAA, which stands for Control Your Home, Anytime, Anywhere allows users to control their smart home devices with their voice right from their phones.