Advice for NTIA Broadband Stimulus Applicants

Some would argue "partnerships" are going to be key for winners of broadband stimulus grants under the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's program.

You might think this a simple matter of taste or fashion. It isn't. The statutory language favors non-profit groups. But non-profit groups typically do not have the ability to create sustainable communication networks.

There are some possible exceptions. Municipalities might dust off older business plans for municipal Wi-Fi networks. Even there, partnerships would likely be helpful.

http://www.successful.com/msp/snapshot-4-09.pdf

Telcos, Airlines, Newspapers: Structurally Incapable of Making a Profit?

Some businesses, some would argue, are structurally incapable of making a sustained profit. Airlines are the typical example. Others seem to make money only if operated as monopolies. Electrical, water and natural gas services are examples.

This year, we have started to see major U.S. newspapers going out of business. So you would think advertising, a key pillar of the newspaper business model, has migrated elsewhere; to TV or the Internet. Clearly, some has. But migration to Internet venues has slowed.

You might attribute some of that to the recession. But there's a bigger problem right now. As advertising tends to follow eyeballs, you'd think Twitter, Facebook and YouTube would be getting more ad revenue. They aren't getting as much as you might think, or any at all. In fact, some online properties are faring better than print assets, but not by much.

In the first quarter, Yahoo's revenue dropped 13 percent while New York Times Company revenue fell 18 percent, and advertising dropped 27 percent.

So far, nobody has successfully replicated the two-sided revenue stream characteristic of so much of the "old" media in the "new" media space. It has proven largely impossible to monetize content directly.Nor has it proven easy to create stable and large advertising streams.

This is a bigger problem than some realize, as it is not confined to the media, new or old. In telecommunications, all the new fundamental services, IP voice, broadband access and video, are less profitable than older voice services.

Mobility has been key in enabling a transition away from long distance revenue as an industry mainstay. But even that will be under increasing pressure as mobility becomes a broadband access service, with similar margin issues faced by wired network providers.

That's one reason why some of us spend so much time writing about, and thinking about, business models. Right now, some models don't work, while others don't work well.

http://247wallst.com/2009/04/22/the-end-of-%E2%80%9Cnew-media%E2%80%9D-yhoonytgoog/

4.3 Billion Mobile Subscribers This Year

With mobile subscriptions expected to reach 4.3 billion in 2009 and to grow to nearly 5.4 billion by 2013, mobile communications have evolved from “nice-to-have,” to providing utility-like services, say researchers at ABI Research.

The trends driving these capabilities are evolving and include changing distribution models, greater choice of connected devices, faster networks and proliferation of mobile applications. All these choices highlight one of the biggest challenges facing the industry today: mobile services personalization.

“Customers increasingly want a personalized experience with their mobile device and service," says ABI Research Mobile Services practice director Dan Shey. Service personalization involves not only allowing them to find and select the right mobile services and applications but also to control, monitor, and pay for mobile services in a way that best suits their needs."

RCN Rate Hike Raises Ire

I have yet to meet or hear from a video customer who actually was happy about a rate increase, so it is no surprise RCN customers are sqwaking about the latest rate increase they are facing.

Up to this point there have not been many options. The favorite channels most of us watch (a different package for every single viewer) are not available a la carte. In truth, for a package of 10 to 15 channels, especially featuring sports content,  it is doubtful a consumer can save much over current packaged rates.

But it is unlikely distributors can "forever" expect rates to be hiked without something breaking, somewhere.

In my case, two channels plus occasional use of a couple others, justify the entire basic package. But as rates continue to climb, so does the level of irritation.

So far, those two essential channels are not available online, or a la carte.

Of course, distributors aren't dumb. They can assume lots of viewers will be sorely tempted to opt for packages that deliver several channels of most interest, possibly with a "casual viewing" video on demand feature, that might satisfy many current customers.

Nobody knows whether a la carte or expanded VOD options would be revenue neutral. Distributors and networks have reason to fear any change in that direction would not be revenue neutral.

But I don't think some move in the direction of flexibility is avoidable forever. It might be fine positioning for a distributor to say the fees are higher, but so are the variety of channels.

That does not correspond with the way most people watch linear TV, though. Most people do not watch, or even want, most of those channels. And there lies the rub.

There are some precedents, however. Premium channels such as HBO always have been offered a la carte.  But the movie channels, pay per view and VOD always have been fully subscriber-funded formats.

Ad-supported channels have reason to fear the economics of a la carte choice, though. Still, if you look at your on-screen guide, you can see some "natural" packages based around sports, news or entertainment that suggest logical packages that are more targeted than what is possible today. That might be a half step that could work, if most customers do not choose those options.

The system isn't seriously broken yet. But each rate hike increases customer dissatisfaction just a bit more. Someday, it will break.

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/RCN-Raises-Rates-Adds-Downgrade-Fee-102035

AT&T Reports Ap 22: What to Look For

AT&T reports first quarter results on April 22. I suspect most of us will be watching for any weakness in wireless net additions or average revenue per user. Everybody expects residential voice lines to decline, so the issue there might be a slowing of the rate of loss. Business customer revenues likely will be considered a success if growth essentially is flat.

A consumer landline loss in the 10 to 12 percent range is probably to be expected, while enterprise segment revenue likely will be off a couple to several points. None of that would be unexpected.

Video entertainment subscribers should grow, but will not likely have a material effect. Broadband net additions will be less robust than in the first quarter of 2008.

Canadians Heavy Online Video Consumers

In February 2009 21 million Canadians viewed more than 3.1 billion videos online, says comScore. The average Canadian online video viewer spent 10 hours viewing videos in February, up 53 percent from their average viewing time last year.

Shift in Unified Communications Value?

By the end of the year, or at least within the next couple of years, we all might have a different perspective on unified communications, traditionally viewed as something involving business phone systems, instant messaging and conferencing apps.

There are several reasons, among them a view that the "value of traditional desk phone and desktop PC is diminishing." Remote workers and mobility might become the lead value proposition for some buyers. For others, there might be an equally strong shift to IP-based conferencing as the lead application, based on "economic uncertainty as companies look to cut cost" in areas such as travel.

Integration of communication functions directly with business applications is an on-going and underlying trend that likewise could shift attention on UC value.

http://horizonwatching.typepad.com/horizonwatching/2009/04/primer-on-unified-communications.html