Time Warner Cable Reports: Still No Evidence of Cord Cutting

Time Warner Cable first quarter results are in, and, so far, nothing unexpected seems to be happening, relative to financial or subscriber behavior attributable directly to the economy. Comcast reports tomorrow, so we should be in fairly good shape as far as analyzing whether reported or claimed consumer intent to drop video subscriptions, or even scale them back dramatically, is happening.

So far, with results in from Time Warner, AT&T and Verizon, we can note that, despite what people might say, or what observers might believe, the business remains quite stable. We'll have to wait for several other reports from major satellite and wireless providers to assess what is happening with wireless, and to flesh out the video numbers.

But, so far, nothing unusual can be seen. Share shifts continue. Consumers might be scaling back on premium services or discretionary purchases such as video on demand. All of that is typical for a recession. But there is so far no serious evidence of any significant shift in behavior, compared to past recessions, in the video or fixed broadband segments.

Wireless might be a different matter, as the two major providers one suspects will show market share pressure have not yet reported. The issue is whether total postpaid wireless subscriptions have declined. Some shift to prepaid is expected, which potentially could lower average revenue per user, if new data service revenue does not grow faster than the slippage to prepaid voice. So far, data revenue growth remains brisk, so ARPU has not fallen. In fact, it has grown at AT&T and Verizon Communications, the two major wireless companies to report so far.

Time Warner Cable revenues for the first quarter of 2009 increased five percent ($204 million) over the same quarter of 2008,  to $4.4 billion. Subscription revenues grew six percent ($256 million) to $4.2 billion. Video revenues rose two percent ($64 million) to $2.7 billion, driven by video price increases and continued growth in digital video subscriptions partially offset by a year-over-year decrease in basic video subscribers and premium channel and transactional video-on-demand revenues.

High-speed data revenues increased 11 percent ($107 million) to $1.1 billion while voice revenues were up 23 percent ($85 million) to $451 million. Advertising revenues declined 26 percent ($52 million) to $145 million.

Customer relationships were 14.7 million as of March 31, 2009. Primary service units, which represent the total of all video, high-speed data and voice subscribers, reached 26 million with net additions of 435,000 during the first quarter of 2009.

Revenue generating units (“RGUs”) totaled 34.8 million – reflecting net additions of 556,000 during the first quarter of 2009.

Triple Play subscribers exceeded 3.2 million (or 22 percent of total customer relationships), benefiting from 146,000 net additions during the first quarter of 2009.

Video penetration now is at 48.7 percent while high-speed data penetration of the customer base now is at 33.5 percent. Phone penetration is at 15.1 percent of the customer base.

Some 55.2 percent of households buy a bundle of some sort. A third of households buy a triple-play package, while about 22.1 percent of those bundle buyers take a double play.

Perhaps the most shocking number for anybody who has followed the cable industry over the past couple of decades is customer penetration of homes passed. Time Warner Cable today sells a service to 54.5 percent of locations the network passes. But looking just at multi-channel video, Time Warner sells video services to just 48.7 percent of households passed, down sharply from the nearly-70-percent levels operators used to have in many markets.

Industrywide, cable penetration now is at 51 percent, according to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association.

Mobile and Social Network Ad Revenue Hot Through 2014

Mobile and social networks are the hottest areas of online advertising growth, say researchers at Forrester Research.
The cumulative average growth rate for the six-year period from 2008 through 2014 is 17 percent, Forrester Researchers say. However, the growth rate for mobile advertising is much higher, at 27 percent per year, and the growth rate for social network advertising is 34 percent per year.
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Advertising Down, Internet Advertising Up, ZenithOptimedia Says

Consumers are saving money by spending more time at home, so media consumption is increasing, particularly of television and the Internet, says ZenithOptimedia Group. That might explain what appears to be consistent performance by providers of multi-channel video entertainment, though there are share shifts occurring.

And though overall advertising will decline globally in 2009 by about seven percent, Internet ad spending should increase 8.6 percent in 2009, down from 20.9 percent in 2008, ZenithOptimedia Group says.

Most of this growth will come from search advertising. The firm predicts U.S.search advertising to grow nine percent in 2009, while classified grows just 1.8 percent and traditional display shrinks 1.8 percent.

Internet video and rich media advertising is growing about 30 percent annually, while Internet radio advertising is growing 29.7 percent. Podcast ad revenue is growing 11.9 percent, but each from relatively small bases. Internet video, Internet radio and podcasting revenues represent about 12 percent of overall U.S. Internet ad spending.

Internet ad growth is predicted to grow at 11.3 percent in 2010 and 15.3 percent in 2011, ZenithOptimedia Group says. The Internet's share of total advertising will grow to 14.6 percent in 2011, up from 10.4 percent in 2008.

http://www.zenithoptimedia.com/about/news/pdf/Adspend%20forecasts%20April%202009.pdf

Triple Play Future for Web Business Models

Where are Web business models headed? Towards a mix of advertising, subscription and transaction models, says Bernard Lunn ReadWriteWeb COO. There are some obvious implications.

Advertisers will adopt a barbell approach: where they will buy media on a traditional cost-per-thousand basis for branding and cost-per-action for direct-revenue generation, he says. Cost per click will still be dominated by Google but will become less dominant as CPA gains traction, Lunn argues.

The big issue, though, is that Google so dominates the CPC business that it makes tough any other third party CPA model. Lunn thinks ad-suported media will be a mix of CPM and CPA models, but must deal with CPC to achieve a workable balance.

Content increasingly will be dominated by user-generated sources, if only because the amount of professionally-created content is not going to keep up with the amount of UGC. To make UGC consumable, more human editing will be required.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/mapping_the_current_web_transition.php

Small Business Sees Web Site Investments as "Advertising"

In 2008 small and medium-sized organizations spent $6.7 billion on online advertising and will increase that spending relatively slowly between now and 2013, according to researchers at Borrell Associates.

By 2013, SMEs will be spending about $7.4 billion on online advertising, representing relatively slowish growth of nine percent over a five-year period, an annual growth rate of a bit more than 1.5 percent annually.

That might surprise you, if only because the rate of growth is slow slow it might be considered "flat." But Borrell suggests something else is happening. SME spending on Web sites will grow about eight percent a year.

You might not consider Web site spending as advertising, but Borrell Associates says this is precisely how SMEs think about the matter. It isn't so much a shift of advertising from traditional methods, including telephone directory listings and direct mail, to the Internet. It is that small businesses see their own Web sites as a form of "advertising," perhaps a functional substitute.

Consider this a sort of shift to "earned media" (awareness gained through promotional efforts rather than paid advertising). The other angle is that small businesses rightly see their Web efforts as partly a direct sales channel, partly direct marketing and partly a substitute for other sales activities such as printing and distributing flyers, postcards and other direct marketing messages.

60% of Twitter Users Do Not Return the Following Month

Twitter’s unique audience exploded over 100 percent in March 2009, meaning it likely has reached an inflection point of some sort. But there are issues: Currently, more than 60 percent of Twitter users fail to return the following month, says David Martin, Nielsen Online VP.

That means Twitter’s audience retention rate, the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is about 40 percent.

To put that in perspective, it is roughly the equivalent of turning over 100 percent of the user base every three months. Such a churn rate is unsustainable.

"It is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure," says Martin. "A high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite."

There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones, at some point.

When Facebook and MySpace were emerging networks like Twitter is now, their retention rates were twice as high, says Martin. When they went through their explosive growth phases, that retention only went up, and both sit at nearly 70 percent today.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/twitter-quitters-post-roadblock-to-long-term-growth/

CableVision to Offer 101 Mbps, Claims Blagging Rights

Cablevision Systems Corp. plans to sell a new 101 Mbps service (with 15 Mbps upstream) for $99.95 a month. The service also will include free access to Cablevision's metro Wi-Fi service, beginning May 11, 2009.

These days, such really-fast services are more a matter of marketing rights than revenue. Earlier this year, Tom Rutledge, Cablevision COO said the company didn't expect much financial impact from any of the really-high speed services in 2009, at least where the consumer market is concerned.

To the extent actual sales will be happen, they are more likely to be generated by small business users. 

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/cablevision-goes-for-us-broadband-speed-record/