Hybrid Mobile Plans Gain Traction

MetroPCS and Leap Wireless both reported annual double-digit connections growth in the first quarter of 2009 and in some geographic areas are claiming a greater share of net additions than the big four mobile providers. 

Both are doing so on the strength of  unlimited prepaid plans, a strategy Sprint’s prepaid affiliate Boost Mobile also has adopted. Boost offers a $50 per month unlimited usage plan. 

MetroPCS and Leap Wireless also are pioneers of the "hybrid" mobile plans that offer a monthly allowance of voice and data but is paid for upfront and does not require a contract. 

"In the current economic climate, customers are finding their unlimited hybrid plans attractive, particularly as the plans are free from any long-term contract or credit checks," says Will Croft, Wireless Intelligence analyst. 

Video Consumption Climbs on All Screens

Online video consumption grew 13 percent in the first quarter while mobile video viewing grew 52 percent year over year. So you might think linear TV viewing decreased. Not so, says Nielsen.

(click image to expand chart)

In fact, linear TV viewing grew 1.2 percent year over year, even as consumption of other forms of video, on different platforms, grew.

The average American watches approximately 153 hours of TV every month at home. In addition, the 131 million Americans who watch video on the Internet watch on average about 3 hours of video online each month at home and work.

The 13.4 million Americans who watch video on mobile phones watch on average about 3.5 hours of mobile video each month.

Out of all different age groups, 18-24 year olds show signs of watching DVR and online video the same amount of time - timeshifting 5 hrs, 47 minutes per month, and watching video online 5 hrs, 3 minutes each month.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/nielsen-news/americans-watching-more-tv-than-ever/

Videoconferencing as Lead Unified Communications App

Video-based conferencing services are not the only unified communications service business customers are looking to buy, but they seem to assumed a "lead" application status recently.

That, at least, is what respondents to a recent Yankee Group survey indicate.

Carrier Ethernet will be Driven by Consumer Services

You might think the carrier Ethernet market is a product category driven by business customers.

But Yankee Group analysts predict that most of the market will be driven by services sold to consumers, not businesses, beginning this year.

That is evidence of the new role for Ethernet used to support broadband access and digital video services.

TIA Forecasts "Unprecedented" ICT Industry Revenue

For the first time in its 23 years of forecasting for the information and communications technology industry, the Telecommunications Industry Association is projecting a 3.1 percent decline in revenue for the overall global ICT market in 2009. In the United States, revenue will suffer a 5.5 percent decline in 2009.

Some will read the numbers and translate that into a dip in telecommunications spending, but that is not what the headline number indicates.

The TIA is talking about the ICT industry, not the telecom service provider industry. In fact, roughly 70 percent of the ICT data refers to things such as sales of computers, information technology consulting, PC and other software and services related to creating, modifying or maintaining data networks, on the premises.

For example, the TIA forecasts a dip in U.S. revenue from about $1.1 trillion in 2008, dipping to about $1 trillion in 2009, falling to $990 billion in 2010.

But according to the Federal Communications Commission, total U.S. communications service provider revenue in 2008 was about $300 billion. So roughly $700 billion of total ICT revenue is from hardware, software and services related to computing.

The data I have access to does not break out forecasts for the U.S. communications service provider industry. But I would be very surprised if industry revenues failed to grow in 2009, compared to 2008.

VoIP, WANs, IPTV, Mobility Will be Supplier Bright Spots in 2009 and 2010

It now appears 2009 and 2010 will not be happy years for suppliers of equipment and software to many segments of the global telecom industry, though investments in backbone capacity, IPTV, mobility and VoIP will be salient exceptions. 

Releasing its latest market forecast, the Telecommunications Industry Association predicts U.S. carrier capex spending will be down 13 percent in 2009, compared to 2008. 

Global capex spending will dip about 3.1 percent, TIA says. 

A recovery in spending will occur in 2010 and 2011, TIA now projects, and U.S. capex will climb about 14.4 percent when the rebound happens. 

As you might expect, spending will vary by segment and by growth prospects in each segment. U.S. landline infrastructure spending will decline about 11 percent in 2009, but there also will be a 15 percent growth in backbone spending. Operators will spend about 27 percent less on access. 

Spending on wireless infrastructure and broadband will climb, however. Indeed, spending on IPTV and VoIP will grow 42 percent in 2009. 

None of these projections address service provider revenues, though, and are limited to capital spending programs by service providers. So far, first quarter 2009 service provider reports suggest service providers, as an industry, are on track to grow revenue in 2009, compared to 2008.

More Competition in Rural Markets Likely

Whatever else might happen with the broadband stimulus program, odds are that the spending of those funds will increase the amount of competition in rural markets. The reason is simple enough: cable, mobile and fixed wireless service providers are likely to apply for grants under the programs, and it is likely some will receive funding.

The American Cable Association, an industry group for small independent cable operators, probably will make a fairly significant play for funds. To be sure, many rural telcos also run separate cable system operations. But even where an in-region telco gets funds to support its in-region cable operation, increased broadband access from the cable unit will dampen demand for telco-provided broadband.

It isn't clear whether fixed wireless providers will apply, but there are many hundreds of small Internet service providers using fixed wireless to provide broadband in rural and thinly-settled areas. Also, depending on the final language adopted, larger mobile providers might be able to apply as well.

The impact might not be felt immediately. It is possible many competitive networks will get funding to support operations in nearby communities, if not directly in rural areas.

But we all know what happens when an incumbent in one area looks for growth. The answer in rural areas tends to be expanding service into adjacent or nearby communities. So stimulus funds might allow providers to fortify their backhaul and other assets enough that later access operations in nearby communities are more feasible.