Whatever else might happen with the broadband stimulus program, odds are that the spending of those funds will increase the amount of competition in rural markets. The reason is simple enough: cable, mobile and fixed wireless service providers are likely to apply for grants under the programs, and it is likely some will receive funding.
The American Cable Association, an industry group for small independent cable operators, probably will make a fairly significant play for funds. To be sure, many rural telcos also run separate cable system operations. But even where an in-region telco gets funds to support its in-region cable operation, increased broadband access from the cable unit will dampen demand for telco-provided broadband.
It isn't clear whether fixed wireless providers will apply, but there are many hundreds of small Internet service providers using fixed wireless to provide broadband in rural and thinly-settled areas. Also, depending on the final language adopted, larger mobile providers might be able to apply as well.
The impact might not be felt immediately. It is possible many competitive networks will get funding to support operations in nearby communities, if not directly in rural areas.
But we all know what happens when an incumbent in one area looks for growth. The answer in rural areas tends to be expanding service into adjacent or nearby communities. So stimulus funds might allow providers to fortify their backhaul and other assets enough that later access operations in nearby communities are more feasible.
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