59% of WiMAX Providers Expect to Offer VoIP By 2011

Some 59 percent of respondents to a recent Infonetics Research survey globally plan to offer VoIP over WiMAX services by 2011.

As always is the case, market considerations are key. Attackers, with no legacy voice revenues to cannibalize, will be more eager to do so. Providers with large revenue streams to protect will be less likely to do so.

Of the operators surveyed, 41 percent are from Asia Pacific, 36 percent from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), 18 percent from North America, and five percent from Central and Latin America (CALA).

Generation Z: Shift Happens

Though there's a bit of imprecision about the terms Generation X, Y and Z, their behavior is closely watched for obvious reasons: at some point relatively soon, they will start to represent the center of gravity for most products and services.

Generation Z, people roughly born between 1995 and through 2000s, have some characteristics in common with Generations X (roughly born between 1965 and 1980) and Y (roughly born between 1980 and 1994). We perhaps make too much of the precise delineations. But some behavioral trends seem common to all three "generations."

They don't read newspapers.

They tend not to watch scheduled TV, and some would note that even when TV is available, it isn't being "watched," as users are multitasking. They also often have access to digital video recorders and Internet video so "appointment television" doesn't make as much sense to them as it might for older viewers.

They tend to rely on mobiles for voice communications, and in any case texting is an equally dominant behavior.

They tend to trust their peers, even unknown peers, more than they trust experts.

They are used to iTunes, so paying for digital content, or watching some ads to get content at a reduced rate, or for free, might not strike them as unusual.

They are social in a digital way. Communication with “friends” is a primary activity.

Though they might not admit it, brands are important.

To a greater extent than older consumers, they expect to be able to move digital content from platform to platform. In part, that is simply because they know digital content can be moved from device to device.

They use instant messaging or text messaging for communications, they think that email is for their parents.

In part because they have grown up with Web media, mobiles and the Internet, sharing content seems natural.

Most of those behavioral traits have implications for marketing in general, and for Internet and mobile marketing in particular. For starters, new media require new rules and tactics. Each new medium has characteristics that are not well understood at first. That is why early movies essentially were filmed versions of stage plays.

Over time, each media becomes better understood, production values and marketing opportunities change.

Even traditional TV ads do not work as well as they used to, in part because, as media become more personalized, non-relevant messages become ever more annoying.

Also, perceptions of honesty are more important. All three generations have been bombarded from birth with marketing messages and they are fairly adept at tuning them out.

And since social values are strong, advertisers, for example, will have to truly commit to becoming a members of the communities. As a practical matter, that means brands essentially have lost control of their brands, which in many ways are defined by users.

That will be scary, in part because in the new social context, people will criticize what they don't like. Worse, they may simply indicate, by lack of interest, that a particular product is not interesting or relevant.

It's all about "pull," rather than "push," in other words. But since nobody really knows what will work in the new formats, experimentation is required. It will be a big shift.

But as has been said before, "shift happens."

Mobiles More Important than PCs, Study Finds

One reason lots of observers expect mobile broadband to grow in importance is that younger users rely on their mobiles more than PCs.

Or so suggests a new study by Toronto-based SRG. In that study, the mobile device was ranked the most important device by females between the ages of 12 to 24.

That doesn't mean women in other demographics rank mobiles the same way: they don't, yet.

But as some of us have noted for a while, it is important to follow the "youth" demographic because it isn't just a market segment.

Younger users represent 100 percent of the future market. And if younger users behave differently than older users, one has to pay attention. At some point, those younger users will move into different age groups, but likely will retain their behaviors.

Online Usage: Social Networking Grows Most

Users spend more time using social networking sites, less time on communications and more time on content sites in early 2009, compared to 2003, according to the Online Publishers Association.

Users also spend slightly more time using search and slightly less time on commerce sites.

It isn't yet clear how mobile Internet time spent matches up, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the trends should roughly match.

Not many of us would be surprised if use of social networking sites was higher on mobile devices, as a percentage of total mobile Internet time spent.

Click the image to see a larger view.

Network Services Generally Safe, But Only if Economy Does Not Worsen

Consumers say they are least likely to cut or reduce spending on Internet access and most likely to cut back on buying pay-per-view movies downloaded over the Internet, according to a new survey by Alcatel-Lucent.

Consumers also indicate they are likely to maintain spending on VoIP and multi-channel TV services.

They also indicate some other services, including mobile service and landline voice are less likely to be cut than other discretionary spending.

The findings are in line with past behavior during recessions. People say they are highly likely to reduce spending on such things as going out to bars and clubs, eating at restaurants, going to sporting events or renting movies.

But they are resistant to the idea of eliminating communication or entertainment video services. All that depends on the recession not growing worse, though. Should the economy deteriorate further, even network services will get a harder look.

About 29 percent say they will increase spending on communications when the economy improves. But 13 percent say they plan to reduce communications spending even when the recession is past.

At least at the margin, it appears there is some potential for permanent changes in communications spending even after the recession ends. And that always is a concern. People might change behavior during a recession as a temporary measure, but then discover the new behavior suits them, and not return to their pre-recession behaviors.

There's no way to tell, yet, how much that will happen this time. But it would not be unreasonable to predict some permanent changes.

Ads Won't Support Online TV Business

Too many media-related companies mistakenly believe their conventional advertising, subscription or even free business models will simply transfer over to a connected marketplace. They won't, says Diane Mermigas, Mediapost columnist.

But that's a mistake common to other industries buffeted by IP technology, such as the telecommunications, wireless and music industries, for example. The entire global telelcommunications business, for example, is finding itself facing a nearly-complete replacement of its underlying voice revenue model.

Media firms face something similar. Advertising has been 37 percent of all content revenues, and nearly half of all video revenue.

But advertising is expected to comprise only one quarter of domestic online video revenue by 2012. "The economics are simply not there for advertising to support online video, given rising variable costs and limited scale," says UBS analyst Matthieu Coppet.

There are some other, less quantifiable potential issues as well. Most believe online distribution will be more important in the future. The only issue is how important, and how long the change takes.

At the same time, cable TV's key value proposition--more choice--now is running into potential exhaustion. "Choice" is easier on the Internet.

Also, since most viewers watch a handful of channels (possibly seven to 16), adding more channels, and raising prices to match, is going to run out of gas. It seems to me the only issue is when.

There's a reason so many of us spend so much time thinking about evolving business models. If IP technology affects your core business, it also means your core business is going to face huge business model change.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/145967-media-must-start-anew-mine-connectivity?source=feed

Dumb Ideas for Saving Newspapers

Be worried, very worried, when attorneys supposedly quite familiar with the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (free speech, freedom of the press, he right to assembly, the right to petition the government, no prohibition on free exercise of religion) actually propose legally restricting free speech.

First Judge Richard Posner proposes rewriting copyright law to outlaw linking to and summarizing news stories. No summarizing? It's hard to talk about an idea without at least mentioning what the idea is.

Now we have "First Amendment" attorneys seriously proposing that copyright law be changed so that a newspaper’s story could appear only on its own Web site for the first 24 hours before it can be aggregated or retold. So a story about protesters on the streets of Tehran could not be summarized for full 24 hours.

Muddle-headed thinking will not save an old media form that is being supplanted by other new forms. Were it just muddle-headed, it wouldn't be so bad.

It's evil in banal disguise.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/145926-newspapers-vs-aggregators-understanding-the-economics-of-the-internet?source=feed