What Are New Satellite Phone Operators Up To?

New satellite communications operators TerreStar Networks and SkyTerra Communications plan to offer dual-mode (satellite and cellular) services in North America to dual-mode smart phones aimed at a niche market of public safety, law enforcement and government users.

Based on past experience, one might wonder whether that market opportunity is big enough to support much of a business for both providers.

ABI Research, for example, suggests three million satellite-capable LTE smartphones will be shipped in North America in 2012. But there might be something more going on here.

The Federal Communications Commission allows satellite operators to offer simultaneous satellite and cellular services over their licensed satellite spectrum. That suggests a possible play as a fourth-generation access play in rural markets where it is very expensive to supply such capability.

“We believe that the greenfield satellite companies’ plan is to forge short-term roaming partnerships with AT&T and other cellular operators and then, when LTE services are deployed, position themselves to be acquired by these major players, including their prized spectrum," says ABI Research practice director Kevin Burden.

Danger for Service Providers If Confidence Doesn't Climb

Led by a dramatic decline in the expectations of U.S. consumers for the near future of the U.S. economy, the most recent results of the Royal Bank of Canada Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household Index show a marked downward shift for July 2009, continuing the slide begun last month.

"Consumer confidence is resetting to the levels seen earlier this year and is likely to remain there until there is concrete evidence of a turnaround, "says RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Larry Miller.

Should those trends continue, service providers will have to worry anew that relative stability in communications and entertainment servcies markets will take a hit more pronounced than what they have seen to date.

So far, there seems to be minor damage to broadband access revenues and a growing trend to substitute prepaid for postpaid mobility. Some surveys suggest only a few percent of broadband subscribers say they actually have cut off service. A recent Strategy Analytics survey suggests 10 percent would consider reducing broadband if they had to cut somewhere.

As many as 19 percent say they would consider abandoning mobile service, though there is little if any evidence users actually have done so, at that level. Most other surveys show little if any actual termination behavior.

About 19 percent of respondents to the Strategy Analytics poll say they would consider dropping their multi-channel entertainment service, but again, actual behavior does not support moves of that scale.

Still, a prolonged "scrape along the bottom would increase pressure on consumers to move more aggressively. And the RBC survey suggests that might just be the case.

After four consecutive months of rising hopes that the economy would turn around in the next six months, the longest such increase in expectations since the launch of the index in 2002, many Americans are coming to grips with the idea that it may still be some time before things get better, Miller says.

Apple iPhone, BlackBerry are Most-Profitable Mobile Devices

Just two mobile devices account for the overwhelming share of global handset profits, says Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff. Between them, the two devices account for 35 percent of global mobile operating profits despite representing just three percent of global market share.

In 2009, the two devices will move up to five percent market share but claim 58 percent of

total operating profits.

Smart phones hold only about 13 percent of total cellphone sales globally, but are growing, despite a drop in the broader cellphone market in the first quarter.

The iPhone, which is exclusive to AT&T, draws the fattest subsidy at about $400 a phone, Modoff said. BlackBerries draw subsidies averaging $200 from U.S. operators. Basic cell phones get a $100 subsidy. Manufacturers of basic phones make next to nothing, unless they have enormous scale.

Nokia, the industry leader, manufactured 46 percent of the units sold last year but earned 55 percent of the profits, Modoff estimates.

5% of U.S. Universities, Colleges Have Deployed Unified Communications Campus-Wide

About five percent of U.S. university and college campuses already have deployed unified communications campus-wide, according to a recent survey by the Association for information Communications Technology Professionals in Higher Education. Another four percent of respondents say they have extensive deployments, but to a limited number of people.

About 44 percent report having limited deployments or trials underway. About 26 percent are in planning stages. About 20 percent have no UC projects or planning underway.

The survey featured responses from 103 institutions.

24% of U.S. Mobile Users Possibly Are No Longer Voice Centric

About 13 percent of U.S. mobile phone owners say they "never" make calls on their devices. Altogether, about 24 percent make calls once a week or less, according to Lightspeed Research. That's a shocking statistic for devices known as "mobile phones."

One might draw several conclusions from the results. It is possible that, for many users, the mobile is helpful, but not something that adds value on a daily basis. The other likely conclusion to be drawn is that text communications are, for many users, a preferred or reasonable substitute for voice, as email has displaced a huge amount of voice communications.

If so, the findings indicate the clear emergence of usage patterns centered around texting or mobile Internet activities rather than voice, and the importance for mobile service providers of migrating revenue models to primary reliance on data-related services and applications.

In many cases, it would seem to make sense to lead with data plans and features, and then add on voice only afterwards. It also would seem to make sense to plans and devices specifically optimized for text and Web applications.

That would be a reversal of historic practice, where voice plans lead and text plans or data plans are an add on.

But the practice would not be without precedent. Most BlackBerry users likely are more interested in mobile email than mobile voice. They want the voice feature, as many users buy primarily for voice, but want the texting feature. Most iPhone users likely value mobile Web access as much as voice or text messaging.

The point is that mobility has become a multi-product business, with lots of different ways to create devices and service plans that appeal to different user populations.

Will Skype and Google Voice Dominate Mobile VoIP?

Skype, the global leader in PC-based VoIP, has been preparing for mobile-based VoIP as well, but Google Voice might wind up being the market leader in mobile VoIP, says Jeffrey Lindsay, Sanford A. Bernstein analyst.

"It's probably the biggest current threat to Skype," says Lindsay. Ultimately, Google might grab as much as 60 percent market share in the mobile VoIP space, he predicts.

40% U.S. Mobile Broadband Adoption

To the extent that U.S. consumers are not using mobile broadband, availability is not the problem.

Well over 90 percent of locations now are 3G enabled.

ComScore says the United States caught up with Western Europe in the adoption of 3G in June 2008, with 28.4 percent of American mobile subscribers having 3G devices versus 28.3 percent in the largest countries in Europe.

U.S. 3G penetration went past 40 percent in the first quarter of 2009, says wireless data analyst Chetan Sharma.