Broadband Stimulus Bridge to Nowhere?

Since applicants have asked for $28 billion, when the broadband stimulus funds available in the funding round total around $4.3 billion, one already can predict that there will be more entities unhappy than happy about the final awards. Especially unhappy are rural telecom providers who cannot apply because of the definitions used to describe "remote" locations.

For that same reason, it might not be rational to look at where proposals are from, on a state-by-state basis, except for purposes of assuring that some funds are disbursed in every state. Nor will it make sense to evaluate proposals based on ubiquity of platform.

Mobile or satellite networks might have wide footprints. But there still are places where broadband buying lags the national average.

It likely makes more sense to look at proposals at the county level or community level. Even the satellite proposals are specifically targeting a limited number of jurisdications and areas where broadband penetration is low.

Some proposals will be better than others. But most of the proposals seem to ask for relatively small amounts of money. That likely is a good sign, as few small organizations can manage a sudden infusion of money and work very efficiently.

Some proposals do seem weak on the "cost-benefit" front. But that's why the evaluation process is so important. Reviewers are supposed to sort better proposals from weaker ones. Reviewers likely also know their decisions will come under very-close scrutiny. One therefore can hope for a rational outcome.

Publishers Moving to Mobile Distribution

Nearly 52 percent of print executives surveyed by the Audit Bureau of Circulations are distributing or formatting content for viewing on a mobile device. Newspapers are leading the charge, with almost 58 percent already formatting their Web sites for mobile devices. Business and consumer magazines are following closely behind with 45 and 42 percent, respectively.

The changes are driven by a believe that users will be getting more content from mobiles in coming years. More than 80 percent of respondents believe people will rely more heavily on mobile

devices as a primary information source in the next three years, the study finds.

Nearly 70 percent of respondents say that mobile is receiving more attention at their publication this

year than last. Of companies that track mobile impact, 45 percent report that mobility has boosted Web site traffic by up to 10 percent.

Half believe mobile traffic to their Web sites will increase by five to 25 percent in the next two years.

Among senior executive respondents, 56 percent said their publication has plans to develop

a smartphone application in the next 24 months, in addition to the 17 percent of respondents who already have an app in production.

Nearly a third of respondents believe that mobile will have a significant impact on their publication’s revenue in just three years.

What Changes Have Mobile Users Made Because of Recession?

It isn't clear whether users actually followed through with their stated plans and inclinations, but an October 2008 survey by Getjar suggests users were planning significant changes in mobile consumption. So far, we can document the slowdown in replacement phone behavior. Users, at least in Europe, have slowed the pace at which they upgrade their handsets, as 78 percent of respondents to the survey suggested they might.

The suggested parsimony on the usage front remains a bit more difficult to quantify. About 76 percent of mobile phone users who partcipated in the survey suggested they planned to reduce the amount they spend on phone usage as well.

When asked whether they had reduced spending on mobile phones in the last 12 months, more than 50 percent of respondents had not reduced their spending at all, or by as little as 10 percent, during that period.

For those people who had reduced their spending, the economy was the reason given by just over one third of respondents, while 20 percent changed their usage habits to lower expenses, and a further 28 percent had switched to using free applications to avoid charges.

But the planned reductions could have taken any number of forms. Some 35 percent of respondents said SMS accounted for the greatest proportion of their mobile phone bill. So less texting is one possible user response. So is substituting texting for calling when the tariffs favor such choices.

About 18.5 percent said voice services was the biggest cost driver and about 17 percent identified data services as the top usage cost driver. Less calling and less use of data services are other possible responses.

Premium services accounted for the largest part of the monthly mobile spend for 12 percent of the survey participants. For many users, this should have proven the easiest way to reduce spending.

Wireless Net Neutrality Will Spur Mobile VoIP

This forecast of mobile VoIP, like most forecasts, probably needs to be pushed out "to the right," but is one concrete example of what is likely to happen if the Federal Communications Commission does manage to push through rules applying wired network application non-discrimination rules to the wireless realm.

The first thing that will happen is an immediate increase in marketing of mobile VoIP apps.

Carriers, of course, can react in ways to shape adoption. For many users, lower calling prices would dampen interest in VoIP over mobile services.

Carriers also would have incentive to create their own mobile VoIP offerings, and that might offer them a way to boost data plan sales as well.

The most immediate impact of any new wireless non-discrimination rules will be to hasten the day when voice no longer is the key revenue driver for mobile operators. Mobility executives are anything but dumb. They know that day is coming. They just aren't in any hurry to see it.

Who Uses "Push to Talk"? Who Wants To?

About seven percent of U.S. mobile subscribers use the push-to-talk feature, representing about 18 million subscribers, and most of those users are in a few business verticals, says Compass Intelligence.

While 12 percent of respondents to a Compass Intelligence survey currently use PTT, nearly 69 percent indicated no interest in the service, indicating that there is a limited addressable market for this service, Compass Intelligence says.

In a 2007 In-Stat survey, for example, PTT was the only category out of six that declined between 2006 and 2007 about 17.5 percent. Researchers argue that text messaging supplies a similar value for many users.

Nokia Buying Palm?

In the category of rumors we cannot substantiate, but that the Silicon Valley Business Journal is reporting, Nokia is rumored to be considering buying Palm. It's clear why the deal would make sense. Nokia is the global leader in devices sold, but it lags in the key smart phone category, which is the fastest-growing device category as overall mobile handset sales are slowing.

The other angle is that Nokia's entire product line at the moment is based on Symbian. Palm would give Nokia not only a second operating system option, but also an operating system that has gotten favorable reviews for its social networking features and support for use of multiple simultaneous applications.

Another angle is that, though dominating global sales, Nokia is a laggard in the U.S. market. Palm would help in that regard. Palm also would benefit from Nokia's global marketing machine, as well.

Recently there has been some contraction of support for multiple operating systems. Motorola has decided to support Android, while Palm recently decided to drop its support for Microsoft Mobile. Nokia would be going the other way if it buys Palm.

Where's the Payback From Conferencing, Travel?

The traditional argument made by communications industry professionals is that conferencing techniques of various types provide a payback by reducing travel costs. But a new study by Oxford Economics suggests the reverse is true.

"For every dollar invested in business travel, businesses experience an average $12.50 in increased revenue and $3.80 in new profits," analysts say.

One is tempted to argue that the truth lies somewhere in between, given the obvious implications each argument has for each industry's health. Some travel investments boost sales, but some collaboration sessions likely are just as effective using communication tools.

“This study shows that not all spending cuts are smart cuts,” says Adam Sacks, managing director of Oxford Economics. “When companies cut their travel budgets, there are negative consequences that we can now quantify, in terms of lost revenue and profit growth, and in terms of giving competitors a distinct advantage.”

The study found that curbing business travel can have a strong negative impact on corporate profits. The average business in the U.S. would forfeit 15 percent of its profits in the first year of eliminating business travel, and it would take more than three years for profits to recover.

In the first six months of 2009, U.S. business travel is down by 12.5 percent, the study suggests. One suspects that is a conservative figure.

The study itself also reports data from a February 2009 survey of 400 corporate executives suggesting that 51 percent have decreased the amount of business travel in recent months. Those who have made cuts have reduced their budgets by an average 35 percent.

Roughly 40 percent of prospective customers are converted to new customers with an in-person meeting, compared to 16 percent without such a meeting. More than half of business travelers stated that five percent to 20 percent of a company’s new customers were the result of trade show participation.

Executives interviewed cited customer meetings as having the greatest returns, approximately $15-$19.99 per dollar invested, with conference and trade show participation returns ranging from $4-$5.99 per dollar invested.

Respondents suggested that customer meetings represent 34 percent of travel budgets, conferences 10 percent, trade shows 10 percent, incentive travel for sales personnel five percent and "other" purposes 42 percent of budgets.

One suspects any rational organization therefore would substitute conferencing alternatives for internal meetings, which represent 42 percent of travel spending. Indeed, respondents suggested they would be hiking visits to customer offices by 19 percent, and increasing customer meetings by three percent.

In contrast, respondents suggested they would trim travel for internal training by 22 percent, external conferences by 20 percent, internal meetings by 14 percent and external trade shows by 10 percent.