For starters, the business, though lucrative, will be smaller than it has been in the past. Also, to the extent that the market leaders create the price umbrella under which all other contestants must operate, lower fees mean discounts offered by would-be competitors also must be lower.
The other issue is that there has been pressure in the retail payments business for other reasons. Since 2008, payment revenues have fallen about four percent annually, despite volume growth. Revenues are expected by BCG to grow about six percent, but remain the peak 2007 level of $162 billion globally. Many will note that the "real money" in payments is in "interchange" fees, the "percentage of transaction" revenues that processors earn.
Credit card issuer revenue was down about 18 percent in 2010. And the sword of Damocles hanging over the industry is the threat of further action to reduce the key interchange revenue stream.
The other issue is that there has been pressure in the retail payments business for other reasons. Since 2008, payment revenues have fallen about four percent annually, despite volume growth. Revenues are expected by BCG to grow about six percent, but remain the peak 2007 level of $162 billion globally. Many will note that the "real money" in payments is in "interchange" fees, the "percentage of transaction" revenues that processors earn.
Credit card issuer revenue was down about 18 percent in 2010. And the sword of Damocles hanging over the industry is the threat of further action to reduce the key interchange revenue stream.
The other approach is simply to price the upstart services higher than currently imposed by the major card issuers, but then the value issue immediately becomes more obvious. What incentive will a retailer have to switch if transaction costs actually are higher? There are answers, but nearly all the answers have to do with additional value beyond transaction costs.
The consulting group said various changes from the CARD Act, the Durbin amendment and Regulation E will take away 29 percent of the revenue that U.S. issuers, mostly retail banks, collect from retail card transactions. Moreover, the new rules may open the door for more regulations, including possible changes to credit cards.
The consultants said that, in response, issuers will transform the card industry, selling more products to each consumer and moving further into mobile banking. In large part, that is because the credit card portion of the business has reached an inflection point, according to BCG.
In response, banks will have to shift strategies, spending more time creating value around mobile location, customer features such as real-time alerts, location, remote deposit, product reviews, loyalty and other features possible when users can take advantage of smartphone capabilities. See http://www.bcg.com/documents/file71194.pdf
The consulting group said various changes from the CARD Act, the Durbin amendment and Regulation E will take away 29 percent of the revenue that U.S. issuers, mostly retail banks, collect from retail card transactions. Moreover, the new rules may open the door for more regulations, including possible changes to credit cards.
The consultants said that, in response, issuers will transform the card industry, selling more products to each consumer and moving further into mobile banking. In large part, that is because the credit card portion of the business has reached an inflection point, according to BCG.
In response, banks will have to shift strategies, spending more time creating value around mobile location, customer features such as real-time alerts, location, remote deposit, product reviews, loyalty and other features possible when users can take advantage of smartphone capabilities. See http://www.bcg.com/documents/file71194.pdf
Study Says Card Issuers Face $25 Billion Hit - WSJ.com (subscription required)
