Monday, February 14, 2011

Gartner Identifies 10 Consumer Mobile Applications to Watch in 2012

Mobile apps themselves will not only generate revenue ($15.9 billion in expected end-user spending in 2012) but will also drive hardware sales, advertising spending and technology innovation in the mobile space, says Gartner.

Gartner also expects brand companies to increasingly shift their marketing budget to the mobile channel, and experiment with cutting-edge apps to capture marketing and sales opportunities.

Mobile Youth Statistics

Echostar to buy Hughes Communications

EchoStar Corp. plans to buy broadband satellite network provider Hughes Communications Inc. in a deal worth around $2 billion including the assumption of debt. There are any number of ways to spin the value of the deal. One is a "TV Everywhere" capability for Dish Network customers. EchoStar already owns Sling, so the additional capacity EchoStar is gaining might be coupled with Sling features to create a sort of instant "TV Everywhere" service.

The other angle is revenue diversification and growth. Ask a cable executive where the strongest growth now is coming from, and you will be told it is business services (voice and data) sold to business customers. Hughes will bring a multinational enterprise services business, as well as a smaller play for small and mid-sized business customers. Hughes recently has introduced a business-grade voice service for enterprise customers, for example, allowing it to sell a voice and data package.

EchoStar agreed to acquire Hughes for a price of $60.70 per share, representing a two percent discount to Friday’s closing price, but a premium of 31 percent over the January 19, 2011, price of $46.43 when news first broke that Hughes was up for sale.

The transaction values Hughes at about 6.8x times 2011 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $292 million,
which represents a fair multiple for the company, based on the company's historic multiple range of 3 times to four times adjusted EBITDA, but well below the eight times to 10 times multiple some had assumed Hughes might fetch.

Online Video Usage Up 45%

Online video for the most part remains a supplemental activity, complementing multichannel video subscription services. But online usage continues to grow, raising obvious questions about when a tipping point might be reached. But no tipping point can be reached unless content owners can create a viable and substantial new revenue model from online video, and advertising already is seen as merely supplemental. That likely means subscriptions, one way or the other. Up to this point Netflix and Hulu have been the leaders in that regard, despite efforts by iTunes and others.

Online views, or online viewers, are important. But ultimately those metrics alone will not drive a shift to major online availability of professionally-produced content. Some combination of subscriptions and on-demand payments will have to emerge, large enough in volume to create a viable expectation that revenues from such alternative streams can rival the revenues now earned from cable and other video distributors. Views and viewers are important, but not as important as the emergence of paid models of some size.

Among the ten most heavily used brands in January, YouTube continues to hold the top position among online video sites with nearly 8.5 billion video streams – 10 times the number of streams than its closest rival, Hulu. YouTube and Hulu are followed by VEVO in total streams, with MTV Networks Music (+79.1%), Netflix (+37.5%) and MSN/Windows Live/Bing (+36.3%) showing the strongest month-over-month growth in streams.

When looking at the most engaging video brands – as measured by time spent – Netflix was the top destination as the average U.S. video viewer spent over 11 hours watching video on the site from home and work locations, which isn’t surprising considering Netflix subscribers can now watch full-length movies and television shows from their PC/Mac/laptops.

Online video usage in the United States grew 45 percent over the last year, according to Nielsen. Although the number of unique online video viewers only increased by 3.1 percent from last January, level of activity was up as viewers streamed 28 percent more video and spent 45 percent more time watching. Total video streams also saw significant year-over-year growth, up 31.5 percent to 14.5 billion streams.

Cord Swapping, More than Cord Cutting

It might not matter much, in the near term, that end user preferences about consuming video are changing. But it might be quite a dangerous assumption to ignore those changes for the long term.

Many younger users simply have acquired the habit of using online methods for video consumption, as a primary behavior, with linear viewing being supplementary.

CRTC Rethinks Wholesale Broadband Access Policy

Wholesale policies historically have had huge implications for smaller contestants in the telecommunications business. One might rightly point to wholesale policies as the single most-important determinant of competitive local exchange carrier success in the U.S. market, for example.

Something similar seems to have been happening in Canada, where the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) has moved to change wholesale access pricing policies relating to wholesale Internet access.

After concluding that wholesalers could charge their ISP customers on a metered basis, it now is taking another look at the policy.

Apple to "iPod" the iPhone?

Apple is working on the first of a new line of less-expensive iPhones and an overhaul of software services for the devices, people familiar with the matter said, moving to accelerate sales of its smartphones amid growing competition. In a sense, those moves would mean Apple is pursuing an "iPod" strategy, to a certain extent, creating a line of iPhones with various capabilities.

One of the people, who saw a prototype of the phone late last year, said it is intended for sale alongside Apple's existing line. The new device would be about half the size of the iPhone 4, which is the current model.

The new phone—one of its code names is N97—would be available to carriers at about half the price of the main iPhones. That would allow carriers to subsidize most or all of the retail price, putting the iPhone in the same mass-market price range as rival smartphones, the person said. Apple currently sells iPhones to carriers for $625 each on average. With carrier subsidies, consumers can buy iPhones for as little as $199 with a two-year contract.

Zoom Wants to Become a "Digital Twin Equipped With Your Institutional Knowledge"

Perplexity and OpenAI hope to use artificial intelligence to challenge Google for search leadership. So Zoom says it will use AI to challen...