ROI is Good, Measuring it Often is Quite Hard

Return on investment is an important measure. In marketing, though, it is notoriously difficult. Among the reasons is that most larger brands use multiple channels and touch points, but tend to measure and attribute returns based on a single channel. 

Many, for example, attribute sales to the "last-click" by a buyer, while some might atribute an ultimate sale to the "first click." Others, with channel partners at work, will recognize a sale as coming from that channel, essentially ignoring all the work done by all the other channels, or the touch points that might have contributed to a sale.

First-click and last-click attribution models are easiest to measure, but their use can over- or under-credit an ad format’s influence on conversion activity. 

For instance, February 2012 data from Adobe measuring revenue per visitor to US websites, broken down by attribution model, showed that search generated 38 percent more revenue when measured via first-click attribution than last-click. 

Social’s first-click slant was even more dramatic: 88 percent. 

Additional Q1 2012 findings from digital marketing firm RKG showed similar differences.

The point is that a "one-touchpoint experience" is atypical for internet users and not a good measure of digital effectiveness. Nor is that common for complex products sold to business customers, either. 

Questions About Prepaid Growth in U.S. Market

MetroPCS Communications and Leap Wireless International reported an abrupt slowdown in customer growth during what is traditionally their strongest quarter, raising concerns the sputtering U.S. economy is forcing more consumers to eschew prepaid wireless service or seek even cheaper options, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The trend also follows a more aggressive push by larger carriers, such as Sprint Nextel Corp.  and T-Mobile USA, to capture users at the lowest end of the market. It isn't yet entirely clear what combination of forces is at work. Perhaps T-Mobile USA and Sprint, or other prepaid providers, simply are taking more market share.

Tablet Ownership Will Grow 200% Next 2 Years

In the consumer market, tablet ownership will increase by 200 percent across the U.S. and Western European markets over the next two years, predicts Futuresource Consulting. The obvious question device suppliers will ask is "what does that mean for sales of other devices?"

Futuresource predicts that sales netbooks will be harmed, but some would argue that netbooks have been a declining product category for some years. Most consumers seem to see tablets as an addition to conventional PCs or Macs rather than a replacement. What might be less clear is the impact of tablet sales on notebooks, which many users now use as their "PC."

An installed base of nearly 52 million was achieved in 2011 across the two regions, with the market on track to exceed 153 million units in 2013. Ownership will be highest in the USA, with Western European markets showing significant opportunities for growth.

Bigger Screens Drive More Tablet Usage

The Kindle Fire, has almost doubled its share of the tablet market in the past two months from 29.4 percent share in December 2011 to 54.4 percent share in February 2012, according to comScore. 

 Samsung’s Galaxy Tab family followed with a market share of 15.4 percent in February, followed by the Motorola Xoom with 7.0 percent share. The Asus Transformer and Toshiba AT100 rounded out the top five with 6.3 percent and 5.7 percent market share, respectively.

U.S. Market Share of Android Tablets by Unique Devices Dec-2011, Jan-2012, Feb-2012 Total U.S. Source: comScore Device Essentials*
	% Share of Android Tablets
	Dec-11	Jan-12	Feb-12
Amazon Kindle Fire	29.4%	41.8%	54.4%
Samsung Galaxy Tab Family	23.8%	19.1%	15.4%
Motorola Xoom	11.8%	9.0%	7.0%
Asus Transformer	6.4%	6.2%	6.3%
Toshiba AT100	7.1%	7.0%	5.7%
Acer Picasso	6.0%	5.2%	4.3%
Acer Iconia	2.8%	2.6%	2.1%
Dell Streak	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%
Lenovo IdeaPad Tablet K1	0.7%	0.9%	1.2%
Sony Tablet S	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%
Other	8.9%	5.6%	1.6%

As you might expect, screen size is directly associated with higher content consumption. For example, 10″ tablets have a 39-percent higher consumption rate than seven-inch  tablets and a 58-percent higher rate than five-inch tablets.

Average Browser Page Views per Tablet Feb-2012 Total U.S. Source: comScore Device Essentials*
Tablet Screen Size	Browser Page Views per Tablet
10 inch	125
9 inch	116
7 inch	90
5 inch	79

New Evidence that Netflix is Cannibalizing Cable Network Viewing

Bernstein Research’s Todd Juenger says there is new evidence that Netflix customers are shifting their consumption of subscription channel programming, especially childrens' programming.

Bernstein found that among homes that regularly stream Netflix programming, viewing of linear kids’ channels, and not just Nickelodeon, took a hit.

“Turns out, Netflix streamers watch just as much traditional TV as non-streamers,” Juenger  says. “However, there is a significant share shift among streamers. Kids’ networks (not just Nickelodeon) and syndicated shows are getting severely whacked.”


Conversely, Netflix’s claim that it’s a source of “catch-up” viewing for serialized cable dramas like AMC’s& Mad Men seems to carry some weight, with Bernstein finding that AMC’s ratings grew 86 percent in Q1 for streamers but only 71 percent for non-streamers.

ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC each performed better slightly among households that stream, as well. Some might speculate that non-linear viewing of all sorts is starting to have an effect. By that logic, time shifting and online consumption are cutting into "linear viewing" of traditional TV.

Tablets, PCs, Smart Phones Get Used in Different Ways When People Shop

Almost two out of three shoppers use at least one device to research and transact while shopping and 28 percent use two devices at a time, according to a study sponsored by Local Corp.

The study also suggests the different ways people use tablets, PCs and smart phones in the shopping process.

47 percent of consumers confirm they use their smartphone to search for local information, including information about the local store they want to visit.

 Prior to visiting a store, they use smartphones to conduct further research including looking for competitors’ pricing, checking for sales, previewing products and reading reviews.

Some 46 percent of shoppers look up prices on a store’s mobile site where they intend to shop and 42 percent check inventory prior to shopping in the store.

"Machine-to-Machine" Connections Grew 37% in 2011

The global number of mobile network connections used for wireless machine-to-machine (M2M) communication increased by 37 percent in 2011 to reach 108.0 million, according to Berg Insight.

Asia-Pacific was the strongest regional market, recording a year-on-year growth rate of 64 percent and reached 34.5 million connections at the year-end.

Europe and North America grew by around 27 percent each to 32.3 million and 29.3 million connections respectively.

In the next five years, the global number of wireless M2M connections will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.2 percent to reach 359.3 million in 2016.

According to a recent report from analyst firm Current Analysis, it's unclear if revenues from M2M are accelerating as quickly as operators had hoped. That isn't surprising.

New technology products often are not proven to be market successes as rapidly as backers had hoped. In fact, it often can take as long as 10 years for adoption to reach an inflection point. M2M is not there yet, but the slower adoption is not an unexpected development.

Nor would it be surprising if expectations outstrip sales to an extent that proponents begin to "sour" on M2M as a major revenue driver for mobile service providers. Most important new technologies have hype that cannot be fulfilled in the short term, leading to deflated expectations. Only later do many important innovations actually begin to gain adoption and importance.