Online Video Advertising Isn't Attractive Enough to Cause Disruption, Yet

U.S. programming networks earn something on the order of $30 billion a year in licensing fees from U.S. video distributors, and something on the order of $25 billion in advertising based on those audiences. 

Today, all online video advertising, in aggregate, probably represents something on the order of $2 billion annually. 

So no rational network executive is going to jeopardize $55 billion in annual revenue to try and chase a single-digit billions business. That doesn't mean change will not happen. It just won't happen soon. 

Nobody Challenges Apple iPad, Yet

A May 2012 ChangeWave survey of 2,893 consumers took a close-up look at North American tablet demand, and finds the Apple iPad continuing to dominate consumer buying plans. The only other manufacturer that is showing some signs of momentum is Samsung. 


About 73 percent of planned tablet buyers are still reporting they'll purchase an iPad. That is down from the 84 percent of respondents that indicated a preference for Apple in February 2012, but is still sheer dominance by any measure. 


Competitors have to hope that long-term market share more resembles the PC or smart phone markets than the MP3 player market. The reason is that Apple continues to hold 78 percent share of the MP3 player market. 


In PCs Apple might have only 10 percent to 11 percent share. In smart phones Apple has about 25 percent share.

$100 Billion in Annual Small Business Sales is Market Square, Intuit, PayPal, Sage are Attacking

According to a recent Intuit GoPayment survey, 55 percent of the nation’s 27 million small businesses do not accept credit cards.

Those nearly 15 million U.S. small businesses potentially miss out on $100 billion in sales annually. That’s the reason the new ability to turn a smart phone into a retail point of sale terminal, to accept credit card, debit card or prepaid card payments is growing so fast.

Intuit estimates that each business that does not accept plastic misses out on approximately $7,000 in sales annually, equating to approximately more than $100 billion in collective lost revenue.

Small businesses also face a cash flow chokehold, waiting for an average of $5,140 per month in overdue payments. That’s a potential $1.7 trillion collective cash flow strain annually across all small businesses in the U.S.

Small businesses that accept plastic make more sales and get paid quicker than those that don’t. The survey found that 83 percent of businesses that accept credit cards make more sales, with 52 percent making at least $1,000 more per month and 18 percent making at least $20,000 more per month.

In addition, 74 percent of those surveyed said they get paid faster and reduce bad debt by accepting credit cards.

Investor Warns of "Trouble" for Startups, Possibly Not a Bubble Burst

A disagreement of at least modest proportions about whether we are in yet another Internet bubble has popped up now and again over the last couple of years. Facebook's initial public offering and the valuations of social software firms with zero revenues are contributing to the questions. 


Paul Graham, cofounder of Silicon Valley's most important startup incubator, Y Combinator, has sent an email to portfolio companies warning them "bad times" may be ahead, according to Business Insider.


"The bad performance of the Facebook IPO will hurt the funding market for earlier stage startups," he says. To be sure, that does not mean we have been in a bubble, only that Graham thinks valuations are overdone.


The problem is that "no one knows yet how much" valuations are too high. "Possibly only a little," he says. But  also "possibly a lot, if it becomes a vicious circle." 


That "everyone" does not agree, and given that valuations have not yet demonstrably collapsed, across the board, means we still can't say whether the recent Internet investment climate is a bubble or not. One never knows until afterwards. 


That we still aren't sure means any potential bubble has not yet burst. The other issue is whether the effects of any possible bubble can be confined only to the software and application business, or whether the impact will be economy wide. As destructive as the popping of the Internet bubble was in 2001, it did not have equally destructive force outside of telecom and Internet circles. 


Excess liquidity, which most observers would say characterizes the global economy, generally is part of the problem. Investors cannot find attractive places to invest startup capital, so lots of companies that shouldn't be funded, get funded. 


Remember the Internet bubble? In retrospect, there was a reason competitive local exchange carrier startup executives virtually universally were told to get big, fast, leading to what you might call over-funding of the firms that got backing. 


The reason firms that might have succeeded with their original, smaller business plans were "forced" to come up with bigger plans had nothing to do with the opportunity as such. The problem was mechanical. 


Investment firms were awash with cash, and had to deploy it. Faced with a relative dearth of "good" places to put all that cash, they preferred to place a smaller number of bigger bets, rather than many small bets, because that was a better way to deploy available investment funds.


"Use it or lose it," in other words, became a reason for firms to make funding decisions that ultimately destroyed what many estimate was a trillion dollars worth of investment. For surviving telecom firms, you can see what happened to valuations.

Google Bought Meebo For Advertising Potential

Meebo found a way to actually monetize monetize chat, which is why Google is buying Meebo. Meebo introduced a bar that any publisher or business owner could integrate into the experience of their site, without mucking up the chat experience.


That suggests other chat or messaging applications might someday find a way to create ad revenue in the context of the experience as well, which would create revenue out of app experiences that have been tough to monetize. 

Twitter Really Does Break News

Twitter isn't a very good "search engine," many would argue, but there are reasons for that.Twitter really is becoming a place where real-time news breaks. But that also means a high degree of content churn. 


The most frequent terms in one hour might look very different from those in the next hour, . Twitter says. 


Examining all search queries from October 2011, Twitter found that, on average, about 17 percent of the top 1,000 query terms from one hour are no longer in the top 1,000 during the next hour. 


In other words, 17 percent of the top 1000 query terms "churn over" on an hourly basis, Twitter says.


Repeating this at a granularity of days instead of hours, Twitter finds that about 13 percent of the top 1,000 query terms from one day are no longer in the top 1000 during the next day.


But during major events, the frequency of queries spike dramatically. For example, on October 5, 2011, immediately following news of the death of Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs, the query "steve jobs" spiked from a negligible fraction of query volume to 15 percent of the query stream.

Enterprise Videoconferencing and Telepresence Market Growth Decelerates

There was  a noticeable deceleration in enterprise telepresence and videoconferencing market growth in the first quarter of 2012, with videoconferencing revenue growing 14.4 percent year over year, well below the 23 percent to 25 percent year-over-year growth range witnessed in the prior three consecutive quarters. 


Compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, the enterprise videoconferencing market declined 21 percent. 


The single-codec telepresence market grew 28.5 percent, while the personal videoconferencing segment grew 52.6 percent, year over year.


The multi-codec immersive telepresence market declined 38.7 percent, IDC says. 


The first quarter of 2012 was the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines for the immersive telepresence segment, IDC says.