LTE Will Reach 1 Billion Users by 2017

So says 4G Americas.

Mobile Payments Will Reach $245 Billion by 2014

According to 2011 data from Ernst & Young, mobile payments are expected to reach $245 billion in transaction value by by 2014. The actual forecast transaction is probably not so important. 


Neither is the forecast number of mobile money users are expected to total 340 million, equivalent to about five percent  of global mobile subscribers.


Perhaps the more-important issue are the categories of mobile money Ernst & Young believe offer revenue potential for mobile service providers globally. 

Mobile payment technologies and scenarios¹

	SMS	NFC	Mobile internet
Payment type	Person-to-person Person-to-business Business-to-person	Person-to-business Business-to-business	Person-to-person Person-to-business
Use case	Domestic remittance International remittance Branchless banking	Contactless payments Identification- and marketingrelated services	In-app payments Mobile wallet transactions
Characteristics	Payment services for the unbanked and underbanked	High levels of cross-industry collaboration	Extension of online payment services
Examples	Salary payments (Roshan, Afghanistan) Money transfer (M-PESA, Kenya; Obopay)	Transit payments (Mobile FeliCa, Japan)	Mobile wallet (Paypal, Zong, Starbucks)
Payment providers and enablers	Start-ups Mobile operators Money transfer companies Handset manufacturers	Card issuers Mobile operators Handset manufacturers Merchants Start-ups	Web services players Start-ups Mobile operators Merchants
Mobile operator participation	High	Medium	Low

Voice over LTE Gains Momentum, From Low Base

"The US and Asia, especially South Korea, are leading the voice over LTE charge, with Verizon Wireless, Metro PCS, SK Telecom and LG U all planning to launch VoLTE services this year,” says  Stéphane Téral,  Infonetics Research principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics.

"South Korea and Hong Kong have already successfully launched LTE data roaming and by August, SK Telecom expects to have the Samsung Galaxy S3, the first handset to support VoLTE on their network," he says.

Keep in mind that the growth is from a small end user base. By 2016 VoLTE will make up only about 14 percent of global mobile VoIP revenue, while over-the-top mobile VoIP continues to make up the lion's share by far,” he says.

Smart Phone OwnersUse Devices 2 Hours a Day, Talk only 12 Minutes, O2 Finds

On average, O2 smart phone owners now spend over two hours a day using their devices, but talk only 12 minutes, and text only 10 minutes.

Smartphone users spend more time browsing the internet (25 minutes a day), social networking (17 minutes a day), playing games (13 minutes a day) and listening to music (16 minutes a day) than they do making calls (12 minutes), O2 says.

That illustrates the multi-function nature of smart phones, as well as the key role smart phones now play in a full range of "Internet access" activities.

Checking or writing emails represents 11 minutes of activity a day. Watching video consumes 9.4 minutes a day, while reading books represents about 9.3 minutes a day.

People spend about 3.4 minutes a day tacking pictures, as well.

What Must Apple Do to Revolutionize the "TV"

Apple’s rumored interest in producing television sets might prove a bigger challenge than its efforts with other consumer devices. It isn’t so clear what about TVs actually is “broken” enough for Apple to revolutionize the category as it has transformed the “mobile phone.”

Based on that past experience, some significant breakthrough in ease of use, features and content would be necessary. The touch interface arguably was key, but most of us also would say it was the App Store, and apps (content) that really made the difference.

In the case of a TV, that presumably would mean Apple has to change the “content” part of the value proposition in some significant way, beyond integrating existing Web content, which has been the key feature of Apple TV so far, in its ancillary device implementation.

It seems unlikely that navigation and Web content integration alone will transform the experience. What would be revolutionary is some new way for consumers to buy and watch programs they want, including a relatively full range of TV shows normally shown on subscription video networks.

But that is not a technology problem, that is a licensing problem. And, so far, the networks have seemed unwilling to cooperate.

Perhaps Apple really can revolutionize the TV set. But it won’t be easy.

Mobile Signaling Growing 30% to 50% Faster than End User Traffic

While data traffic is growing, signaling traffic is outpacing actual mobile data traffic by 30 to 50 percent, if not higher, 4G Americas says. As another example, a web-based IM user may send a message but then wait a couple of seconds between messages. To preserve battery life, the smartphone moves into idle mode. When the user pushes another message seconds later, the device has to set up a signaling path again, 4G Americas notes in a new white paper.

For real-time Internet applications, the logical always-on connection between the
server and client is required, resulting in frequent or periodic small heartbeat packets to be sent as a keep-alive message to maintain the connection.

“Push” services and “always on” apps add more load. All of that is in addition to the “bearer” traffic. Heavy users of apps illustrate what could happen to network demand as “early adopter” or “heavy user” behaviors become more mainstream. Today, heavy video or audio streamers consume about 2 Gbytes a day worth of video, or 1 Gbyte each day for audio streaming.

In other words, optimizing a mobile network for bearer traffic is one issue, while optimizing for signaling traffic is a different problem.

General computing these days revolves around content consumption and sharing, and heavy users of social networks can consume 7.5 Gbytes a month up to about 14 Gbytes a month. Cloud storage, for early adopters, now ranges from less than a gigabyte a month, up to about 5.5 Gbytes a month.

Leading users of  gaming can consume gigabytes a day. The upshot is that total U.S. data traffic could grow 47 times over the next five years, unless wi-fi offload is available. If Wi-Fi offload is available, demand grows by “only” 24 times over the next five years.

The point, 4G Americas suggests, is that improvements to network, device platform, and application design can all help alleviate capacity issues, but there can be no lasting success without understanding end user behavior.

There is no question that end users are using more and more data every year. In 2011, 44 percent of mobile subscribers owned smartphones, which is more than double the market penetration of two years.

According to Nielsen, more than 50 percent of U.S. mobile phone users now use smart phones, in the first quarter of 2012.

Between 2010 and 2011, the numbers of smartphone subscribers engaged in various rich media
activities other than mobile video have all grown by 45 percent or more. Numbers of subscribers
performing game downloads and playing online games both increased more than 80 percent each in the same year, Nielsen also has reported.

It's Tough to be "10 Times Better" Than Everybody Else

One rule of thumb used by venture capital investors when assessing technology firms is to look for an order of magnitude better capabilities, when making decisions about whether to invest in a new start-up.


The reasons are many, but the assumption always is that, while a funded start-up is gearing up for its market challenge, market leaders will respond by closing the performance gap. By the time a challenger is ready to challenge the market leaders, the potential advantage will have been reduced.


Some might argue that technology performance is not the right way to measure order of magnitude advantages, though. What matters, some argue, is not technology performance but end user experience. At least in part, that is because most users don't buy "performance" so much as "experience."


That is particularly true for software products where the "experience" is the value, not the performance, as such.

A mobile payment capability, for example, has to offer an experience that is qualitatively and significantly better than paying with cash or a credit card. It can’t be a little better. It has to be a lot better. And that means it cannot be new experience that is just seconds faster.

Slight little improvements won’t motivate change, because the current process isn't really "broken."

You might argue that Square, and other merchant point of sale services offered by Intuit and PayPal have gotten such big traction because they were those sorts of “vastly better” experiences, allowing small retailers to take credit card and debit card payments where they never could do so before, on significantly better terms.

Small merchants might also value the faster time to see funds deposited into accounts, plus increased sales volume, without significant capital investment. All of that makes the payment experience better for a merchant. Technology advantages are of relatively small value. 


The point is that it is harder than it seems to offer a new product that is really 10 times better than what exists. When that happens, though, as with payment systems that turn a tablet or smart phone into a merchant point of sale terminal adoption can be rapid.