Friday, July 6, 2012

New Bubble Metrics

Five years after the "dot.bomb" or Internet bubble, some would argue, investors already were at it again. Though many had suggested unprofitable technology companies with less than $100 million in revenue would not be able to "go public," that was happening.


By 2005, in other words, what had been "learned" in the aftermath of the Internet bubble were lost. In fact, some would argue matters are worse today, than in 2000 and 2001. 



Thursday, July 5, 2012

One Derecho Wrecks "Availability" Performance for the Whole Year

All it takes to degrade a 99.999 percent availability is a hurricane, derecho or other widespread weather or natural event. That "five nines" standard means annual outages of about five minutes, 26 seconds. 


Verizon says it continues to gain ground in restoring services to its wireline customers following the highly destructive June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho that caused power outages to about three million homes and business locations, for at least some period of time. 


Verizon's wireline repair load currently is running two to three times normal levels. Many customers' voice, Internet and TV services are coming back as commercial power is restored, and Verizon crews are spread across the region to replace poles, re-hang downed lines and repair customers' services. As of July 5, 2012, field forces are responding to 156 downed utility poles and 897 downed copper or fiber cables in the region.



UptimeUptimeMaximum Downtime per Year
Six nines99.9999%31.5 seconds
Five nines99.999%5 minutes 35 seconds
Four nines99.99%52 minutes 33 seconds
Three nines99.9%8 hours 46 minutes
Two nines99.0%87 hours 36 minutes
One nine90.0%36 days 12 hours

If Facts Don't Fit the Theory, The Theory Probably is Wrong

Facts sometimes don't fit theories that purport to explain those facts.When that happens, it is likely theory is wrong, in some way.That might appear to be the case for one theory about the strategies any industry has to embrace at any stage of its lifecycle.


Of course, some of you will look at the chart and sense a huge anomaly. The telecom industry is over 150 years old and long ago would have passed beyond the "scale" stage, for example.


One observation might be that the theory "fits" non-regulated industries, but does not fit very well for highly-regulated industries such as utilities. Others might note that airlines, which were deregulated in the 1980s, have had 30 years of mergers already. The theory suggests the entire process of moving through all four stages should take about 25 years. 


Note also that the theory claims to apply for any industry that is formed, or is deregulated. Aviation has been a distinct business for much longer than 50 years. 


Of course, it is always possible to force the facts to fit by artificially changing the definition of what an industry is. One might argue that "smart phones" represent a different industry that that of feature phones, or voice-only phones, or analog phones.


One might argue the older telecom business using step switches was different from the business using electromechanical switches or digital switches or now IP switches. 


But that's probably a case of straining to make the facts fit a theory, rather than acknowledging there is something wrong with the theory. 

Best Buy Will Use Mobile Payments Inside New Stores

The heart of a test store near Best Buy's headquarters here is a "Solution Central" help desk, rimmed with chairs and manned by the company's black-tied Geek Squad. It strongly resembles the Genius Bar at Apple's stores.


Best Buy says the new smaller stores are focused less on displaying every conceivable gadget and more on connecting customers with employees who can answer questions or help program equipment.


As part of that change, customers will be able to buy products from just about any Best Buy associate, on the spot, without going to a designated "check out" location, as is the Apple practice as well. That means mobile payments will be the "new normal" at the new Best Buy stores. 

RIM Earns $4 Billion Annually in Service Provider Fees for Email Services; Carriers Want to Pay Less

Research in Motion executives say the company is "not in a death spiral," but pressure is growing. RIM earns $4.09 billion in annual revenue from mobile service providers who provide RIM device email services to consumers.

But AT&T, for one, wants to pay RIM less for the privilege.The fees account for more than a third of revenue at RIM, according to Bloomberg.

“There’s definitely negotiations going on right now to reduce” the fees, said Sameet Kanade, a technology analyst at Northern Securities.

Samba Mobile Launches Free Mobile Broadband Service in U.K.

Samba Mobile is going to test the notion that an ad-supported mobile broadband service can work. Apple iPad users buy a Samba SIM now for £2.99 plus some "packaging" costs and get free mobile broadband service. Other notebook or desktop PCs will require a Samba dongle. 


Samba Mobile will become the latest service provider to try and prove that an ad-supported mobile service can work, though all prior attempts have failed. 


Tablet owners need only the Samba Micro-SIM, though the service is only available on Apple iPads at this stage. Laptop and desktop users must purchase a Samba USB-Dongle and the SIM for £25. 
Samba surfing is compatible with Firefox and Google Chrome but members are forbidden from accessing pornography sites as well as material that breaches copyright or is deemed offensive. 
The company also says it may install cookies to collect information about your “general internet usage”.

One Reason Mobile Service Providers Think M2M Has a Future

The vending machine industry has been fcing declining revenue since 2007, and industry supporters think new machines, using more digital technology, can reverse the trend.

Those changes will require broadband access, many would argue, creating a new type of customer for mobile service connections.

Zoom Wants to Become a "Digital Twin Equipped With Your Institutional Knowledge"

Perplexity and OpenAI hope to use artificial intelligence to challenge Google for search leadership. So Zoom says it will use AI to challen...