Google, Amazon, Microsoft Pay Adblock Plus "Not to Block"

Google, Amazon and Microsoft pay Adblock Plus, the world’s most popular software for blocking online advertising, to stop blocking ads on their sites. That is ironic.

Many advocate strong network neutrality rules, in large part, on the grounds that any paid forms of packet delivery are unfair. Paid prioritization gives big companies who can pay for expedited delivery an advantage over small companies who cannot pay for such services.

So here we have Google, Amazon and Microsoft paying to given their own advertising priority over ads shown by all other advertisers who do not pay for the privilege.

Don’t get me wrong. Adblock Plus can do as it likes to stay in business. Google, Amazon and Microsoft have the right to try and protect their revenue streams. I as a user can avail myself of Adblock Plus, or not, as I choose.

Big firms, or firms with lots of money or other advantages, will use those advantages in the marketplace, just as many firms already pay for content prioritization, using content delivery networks.

Adblock Plus, Google, Amazon and Microsoft can do as they please with their voluntary business arrangements. But others should be able to do so as well, so long as the deals are voluntary, mutually agreed upon and available to any who wish to participate in such deals.

No, it is not “completely fair.” Nothing in business, and little in life, actually is “completely fair.”

So long as people can use any lawful Internet app, and have choices about their Internet access providers, firms should be free to compete as they see fit. We always have antitrust tools to wield if the market doesn’t work so well.

Mobile Now Shapes Global Bandwidth Demand

It might still seem a bit unusual to hear an executive at a major company in the undersea bandwidth business argue that his firm, like all others, has to be “in” the mobile business.

“Without mobile, you are in trouble: you have to be part of mobile.” according to Andrew Kwok, Hutchison Global Communications president, international and carrier business.

That doesn’t necessarily mean offering retail mobile services. It does reflect a recognition of what drives global bandwidth.  Mobile connections already outnumber fixed Internet access connections globally.

Of roughly three billion Internet connections in service in 2014, about 2.3 billion used mobile access.  

That said, North American fixed network bandwidth consumption is between two and three orders of magnitude higher than median end user consumption.

But mobile consumption is growing, in part because more smartphones are in use, and in part because video is becoming the dominant driver of mobile bandwidth.

About 75 percent of mobile data traffic in 2019 will be driven by smartphones, according to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index.

Mobile video traffic exceeded 50 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2012 and grew to 55 percent by the end of 2014.

So mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 57 percent from 2014 to 2019, reaching 24.3 exabytes per month by 2019, according to Cisco.

In a sense, mobile is growing in importance because it increasingly represents the way most people use the Internet. Mobile networks also are getting faster. For example, 4G traffic will be more than half of the total mobile traffic by 2017.

At the same time, Internet traffic now dominates global bandwidth requirements, and content--especially video content--dominates Internet traffic.

Increasingly, for all those reasons, mobile also drives Internet traffic, growing 45 percent annually.

Global mobile data traffic grew 69 percent in 2014, for example.

Granted, service providers have several tools to increase effective bandwidth. Different network architectures and better air interfaces will help. But almost nobody believes the growth can be accommodated without allocation of additional spectrum.

Still, more traffic will be offloaded from mobile networks--on to Wi-Fi networks--than remains on mobile networks by 2016. Without offload, mobile data traffic would have grown 84 percent rather than 69 percent in 2014.

Still, virtually every trend other than offload drives higher mobile data consumption.

Global mobile devices and connections in 2014 grew to 7.4 billion, up from 6.9 billion in 2013.

Smartphones accounted for 88 percent of that growth, with 439 million net additions in 2014.

Globally, smart devices represented 26 percent of the total mobile devices and connections in 2014; they accounted for 88 percent of the mobile data traffic.

Mobile network (cellular) connection speeds grew 20 percent in 2014. Globally, the average mobile network downstream speed in 2014 was 1,683 kilobits per second (kbps), up from 1,387 kbps in 2013.

In 2014, a fourth-generation (4G) connection generated 10 times more traffic on average than a non‑4G connection. Although 4G connections represent only six percent of mobile connections today, they already account for 40 percent of mobile data traffic.

Average smartphone usage grew 45 percent in 2014. The average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2014 was 819 MB per month, up from 563 MB per month in 2013.

Most bandwidth buyers (mobile or fixed, commercial or non-profit, industrial or media) are fundamentally similar in many ways, in terms of expectations. What is changing is that more of the total demand is coming from content or media companies and mobile service providers.

That underlies Kwok’s argument about the need to be part of the mobile business.

Mobile Now Drives 25% of All Online Transactions

In the fourth quarter of 2014, 25.8 percent of global online transactions took place on a mobile device, according to Adyen. That is the first time mobile payments have accounted for more than a quarter of global online payments since Adyen began tracking mobile payments  in June 2013.

Mobile transactions grew 11 percent sequentially and 37 percent year over year.

“For many companies, mobile is now the primary sales channel, rather than simply a key sales channel,” said Roelant Prins, Adven chief commercial officer.

The iPad generated 34 percent of mobile transactions, the iPhone 32 percent, while Android phones contributed 25 percent.

If the current trends persist, Android may surpass the iPhone and iPad in the latter half of 2015 while the iPad also loses its lead over the iPhone, if perhaps not in 2015.

Smartphones represented 58 percent of mobile transactions in the quarter.

Smartphone transactions accounted for about 20 percent of all online transaction for digital goods (including games, services like club memberships, hotel reservations, and tickets).

In the case of retail goods (clothing, furniture, appliances, groceries), smartphones accounted for less than 10 percent of retail purchases.

Telefonica Reduces FTTH Investment Pace Because of Wholesale Rules

Telefonica has decided to reduce its planned investment in its fiber-to-home network after

the National Commission of Markets and Competition proposed that Telefónica offer wholesale access to competitors.

The NCMC proposal exempts the wholesale requirement in nine Spanish municipalities, including Madrid and Barcelona, but would force Telefonica to sell wholesale access to competitors potentially 84 percent of the population.

The proposal exempts the wholesale requirement in Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Malaga, Seville, Valencia, Alcalá de Henares, Badalona, ​​Coslada and Móstoles, which collectively account for 16 percent of the Spanish population.

Telefonica currently accounts for 85 percent of Spain's fiber-to-home networks.

Telefonica plans to cut FTTH deployments by 35 percent, or to some 3.6 million homes in 2015, down from the initial 5.5 million planned, as a result of the CNMC proposal.

Telefonica originally had expected to connect about 300,000 new households each month.

Telefonica connected five million new homes to its FTTH network in 2014, doubling its total coverage to 10 million premises. Since 2008, high speed access prices in Spain have dropped 30 percent.

Higher levels of competition arguably account for those trends.

Telefonica has 46 percent market share, with Orange holding about 27 percent, Vodafone-Ono about 21 percent.

The move is not unexpected, as most tier one service providers oppose mandatory wholesale requirements, and especially new requirements on next generation infrastructure.

Though competition between multiple facilities-based contestants typically obviates the need for such wholesale policies, in many markets that might not be practical. In such cases, mandatory wholesale policies are necessary.

Still, how wholesale policies are implemented makes a big difference. Sharing of passive layers, with no sharing of active layers, for example, arguably provides more competitive differentiation.

5G Projections are Likely to Be Wrong; Only Issue is How

Whether fifth generation mobile networks actually will develop as some expect is a big question. Few of the digital generations of mobile actually have developed as originally foreseen.

Supporters of 2G missed the appeal of text messaging.

When proposed, 3G was supposed to lead to a wave of application development. Eventually, it arguably did, but not in the way supporters had forecast. Originally, it had been hoped the big wave of innovation would substantially benefit carriers. Instead, the applications largely were developed by third parties.

Now 4G might be said to be in search of the “killer app” that will define it. It might be safe to say we do not yet know, and that most present guesses might turn out to be as wrong as earlier expectations about 2G or 3G were mistaken.

It might also go without saying that prognosticators frequently have been mistaken about companion developments on the handset or infrastructure sides of the business. Some might have assumed that the European leadership in handsets during the 2G and 3G eras would continue in the 4G era, and that has not proven to be the case, so far.

Application development, meanwhile, has largely shifted to the United States and Asia. For that reason, industrial policy around 5G is growing heated. Success in that realm probably also is uncertain, if only because there is so much uncertainty overall.

Most projections of mobile service provider future revenue tend to show many new types of services beyond basic Internet access or connectivity. What tends to vary is the precise combination of new services and revenue streams that will drive results.

The unsettling background, from a service provider perspective, is the end of the closed telecom market, and the need to operate in an open Internet ecosystem. Almost by definition, serious innovation will be necessary.

Many would agree with the notion that mobile service providers and telcos might have to replace as much as half their present revenue in about a decade.

Traditionally, however, telcos also have tended to push for regulatory change seen as helpful.

How much help potential regulatory changes could provide also are issues. European service provider executives believe regulations have been too stringent, and must be relaxed.

Executives also tend to believe European markets are too fragmented, and that consolidation is required to build scale.

But service provider executives in Europe also want more regulation of over the top competitors.

None of that will prove decisive unless the business model issues are successfully dealt with.

"Certified" Android Loses Share in Q4 2014; Apple Erupts

“Certified” Android smartphone shipments fell quarter over quarter for the first time in the fourth quarter 2014, in part because of gains by Apple IoS and partly because “forked” versions of Android are gaining market share.

Certified Android shipments fell from 217 million in the third quarter of  2014 to 206 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Apple iOS had share growth of 90 percent. Where Apple shipped 39.3 million devices in the third quarter, Apple moved 74.5 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2014.

“Google’s Android is being attacked by Apple’s iOS at the high end and forked Android and AOSP at the low end in high growth emerging markets,” said Nick Spencer, ABI Research senior practice director.

Such changes are far from unusual. In 2007, Nokia was far and away the global leader in handsets. By 2014, Apple had surged to the lead, Nokia had fallen far back and some 2007 suppliers either had exited the market, or were on the verge of irrelevance. Sustainable advantage in the mobile device market seems unlikely.  

"You Have to be Part of Mobile"

The undersea capacity business is not generally viewed as a part of the telecommunications business where intimate knowledge of end user behavior makes a big practical difference.

That behavior is aggregated to a high level, so what a carrier really must know is “how much is needed,” from “one point to another.”

But that doesn’t mean there are no differences between today’s business, and yesterday’s. The model is “old business, new revenue,” according to Andrew Kwok, Hutchison Global Communications president, international and carrier business.

Talking recently about future revenue for his company and others in the space, Kwok said that “without mobile, you are in trouble: you have to be part of mobile.”

Internet traffic now dominates global bandwidth requirements, and content--especially video content--dominates Internet traffic. Increasingly, mobile also drives Internet traffic, growing 45 percent annually.

Much the same impact can be seen in data center traffic, which increasingly shapes global traffic glows.