New Rule: No Triple Play Provider can Grow by Acquisition Beyond 30% Share of Any Single Service

The emergence of the triple play bundle now has affected its first big merger victim, one might argue. In the past, the rules for market leaders were fairly simple. In the voice, linear video and now high speed access market (it seems), the old rule of thumb was that no service provider would be allowed to gain more than 30 percent share.

Every large telco knows that, and Comcast likewise has known it would bump up against the 30 percent rule when it proposed buying Time Warner Cable.

It seems the math is a bit more limiting now, since no single bundle provider can have more than 30 percent of voice, linear video, high speed access of any other future consumer service that might be created in the future.

So now service providers have to worry not only about failing, and modest success, they also have to worry about robust success, as too much customer share in any one segment makes the evaluation of expansion through acquisition in any other area problematic.

Comcast now has reached a point where it likely cannot expect to gain any more fixed network customer share--defined as percentage market share for any of the triple play services--through acquisition.

As AT&T discovered with its failed effort to buy T-Mobile US, once that 30-percent limit is reached--in any single segment--growth by acquisition is blocked.

AT&T’s effort to buy DirecTV only has a shot at success because AT&T will not exceed 30 percent share in fixed network voice, linear video or high speed access.

Comcast Will Look for Another Big Deal, but Not Domestic Consumer Access Assets

The Comcast decision to abandon its pursuit of Time Warner Cable might be viewed through the lens of competition policy, industry structure or product lifecycles.

One might speculate about whether the abandoned deal ultimately promotes investment, competition or innovation.

One can debate the impact on industry structure or future strategy choices. Some might see an impact on the linear video product itself.

But the deal actually might have very little impact in any of those domains.

Comcast might have a little less scale, and still lack a footprint in the New York market. But consolidation in the cable industry will continue, and no combination of mergers is likely to change the fact that the owner of Time Warner Cable assets will be the second-biggest operator, as presently is the case.

Comcast would not, in any case, had gained much share in video, though its leadership in the Internet access space would have increased significantly. As with other firms such as AT&T that have had big scale acquisitions blocked, Comcast will look elsewhere for growth.

That might include international, non-access assets or non-fixed access assets.

But the need to transform revenue sources and packaging does not change. Investment might be affected by regulatory uncertainty, but the degree of competition is increasing, so investment as a defensive measure will be necessary.

Nor will the continuing evolution of media be affected. The trend, for decades, has been in the direction of consumers watching “what they want, when they want to and where they want to.”

As AT&T pivoted elsewhere, so will Comcast. There will be consequences for Comcast, Time Warner, Charter Communications and others who would have been affected by a successful acquisition. But the dynamics of the market will not change.

It has been rather clear for some time that Comcast would not be allowed to gain more access market share (a general rule is that no single access provider is allowed to gain more than 30 percent share).

Comcast will look for another big deal. LIke AT&T, that is the way the firm has grown.

One simple observation: it is inconceivable that Comcast does not have a major mobile capability within a decade; likely within five years.

AWS is Profitable, and a $5 Billion Annual Business, with a $6 Billion Run Rate

The most interesting number in the Amazon first quarter earnings report was confirmation that Amazon Web Services indeed generates $5 billion a year in revenue and earned $1.6 billion in the quarter. This is the first time Amazon has reported quarterly revenue for AWS.

The other interesting numbers are AWS growth rates--50 percent or so--and the fact that AWS is profitable, with about a current $6 billion run rate annually. AWS earned $265 million in the quarter.

In the first quarter of 2015, operating cash flow increased 47 percent to $7.84 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $5.35 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2014.

Free cash flow increased to $3.16 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $1.49 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2014.

Net sales increased 15 percent to $22.72 billion in the first quarter, compared with $19.74 billion in first quarter 2014.

Excluding the $1.3 billion unfavorable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates throughout the quarter, net sales increased 22% compared to first quarter 2014.

Operating income increased 74 percent to $255 million in the first quarter, compared with operating income of $146 million in first quarter 2014.

Net loss was $57 million in the first quarter, or $0.12 per diluted share, compared with net income of $108 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, in first quarter 2014.

Project Fi: Back to the Future

Google’s Project Fi contains a amount of irony. Though talk and text are flat rated (all you can eat), Internet usage is metered.

Think about that: consumer advocates always argue that people want and need unlimited usage, and it is only the “greedy” Internet service providers that want to match consumption with end user payments.

But Project Fi actually positions consumption-related pricing as a consumer good.

Beyond that, metered pricing, consumption pricing or per-bit pricing--take your pick--actually is a throwback to the earliest days of consumer Internet access. That was the way America Online, the first mass market dial-up ISP, priced Internet access.

People did not like it, and usage surged once AOL moved to unlimited pricing. Now Project Fi moves back to that older model.

Pricing is linear, and based on consumption.

That’s ironic. Linear pricing--metered usage--is the traditional way service providers generally have sold their products. Unlimited use was the innovation.

Now Project Fi insists that strictly metered consumption is, in fact, quite pro-consumer, compared to buckets of use that almost always feature breakage (consumers pay for what they do not use) or “overage” charges when they exceed their allotments.

Consumer advocates generally have argued such plans are not consumer friendly, but also have opposed metered usage as well.

Perhaps Google is trying to spur mobile ISPs to invest more in infrastructure (more than they seem already to be doing) by creating new incentives for supplying capacity. Ironically, ISPs have preferred metered pricing all along.

Comcast Drops Bid for Time Warner Cable

As had seemed increasingly likely, the Comcast effort to acquire Time Warner Cable now has been abandoned, Bloomberg reports. 

Comcast has not formally confirmed the rumor, but with the Federal Communications Commission signaling opposition, and the probsbly frank private meetings recently held by Comcast and Time Warner Cable with antitrust officials, it has seemed very likely the bid wouild be abandoned.

It appears that has happened. What happens next depends, in part, on what course Time Warner Cable might choose for itself. Other bids from Charter Communications are expected, but Time Warner could decide not to sell, but become an acquirer.

It does appear that history did repeat. The staff of the Federal Communications Commission had called for a hearing by an administrative law judge on the proposed acquisition.

In 2011, AT&T and T-Mobile USA dropped a planned $39 billion merger after the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal and the FCC issued a hearing designation order on the deal.

It appears the call for a hearing has had the same impact as the same sort of call did for the AT&T effort to buy T-Mobile USA.

How Long Before Comcast Ends Effort to Acquire Time Warner Cable?

If history provides any guidance, the Comcast bid to acquire Time Warner Cable is going to be withdrawn. The staff of the Federal Communications Commission has called for a hearing by an administrative law judge on the proposed acquisition.

In 2011, AT&T and T-Mobile USA dropped a planned $39 billion merger after the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal and the FCC issued a hearing designation order on the deal.

That would still leave Time Warner Cable “in play,” and another bid by Charter Communications is generally expected. In all likelihood, a successful Charter bid would create a new number-two U.S. cable TV company by customer market share.

Verizon and AT&T See Slight Impact from Marketing Wars, Apparently

With first quarter financial reports now in from both AT&T and Verizon Communications, it is possible to say that both firms seem to be holding up rather well, despite the heavy marketing pressure in the mobile segment of their businesses.

Churn rates are stable, average revenue per account is stable and gross revenue is up, though operating income dipped, year over year.

For the quarter ended March 31, 2015, AT&T's consolidated revenues totaled $32.6 billion, up 0.3 percent versus the year-earlier period.

More to the point, however, AT&T had first quarter mobile revenues of $18.2 billion, up 1.8 percent over the same quarter of 2014.

Some might point profits that were down 12 percent to $4.4 billion, but that is largely an accounting artifact, caused by the continuing shift of revenue to “Mobile Share” no-subsidy plans that result in higher device revenues but lower recurring service revenues.

Churn rates suggest AT&T and Verizon are not suffering as much as observers might have guessed from attacks by T-Mobile US and Sprint.

AT&T, for example, reported its best-ever first-quarter churn at 1.02 percent, down from 1.07 percent for the first quarter of 2014.

Still, margins are under slight pressure, in part because operating costs are higher. Compared to the first quarter of 2014, AT&T operating expenses were $27.1 billion versus $26.2 billion; operating income was $5.5 billion versus $6.3 billion; and operating income margin was 16.7 percent versus 19.3 percent.

Verizon grew total revenues 6.9 percent year-over-year, with a 35 percent operating income margin.

Verizon’s first-quarter 2015 operating income reached $8.0 billion, an 11.2 percent increase compared with the first quarter of 2014.

Verizon consolidated operating income margin was 24.9 percent in first-quarter 2015, compared with 23.2 percent in first-quarter 2014. Cash flow from operating activities increased to $10.2 billion in first-quarter 2015, compared with $7.1 billion in first-quarter 2014.

Verizon added 565,000 net retail postpaid connections in the quarter and had postpaid churn of 1.03 percent.

One might conclude it is difficult to ascertain the impact of current mobile marketing wars on the mobile business.

The issue: where is the account growth at T-Mobile US coming from, if not from AT&T and Verizon?