Messaging Apps Now are Platforms

Source: BI Intelligence

Messaging apps now are platforms, meaning they now are proving to be the foundation for creating apps and services on top of them.

Messaging apps now are ways for people to connect with brands, browse merchandise, and watch content, for example.

The combined user base of the top messaging apps is larger than the combined user base of the top four social networks, according to Business Insider.  

WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, WeChat, and Viber are biggest. But WeChat, KakaoTalk, and LINE arguably have done the best job monetizing their customer bases. 

Chat apps also have higher retention and usage rates than most mobile apps. Also, the majority of their users are young, an extremely important demographic for brands, advertisers and publishers.

Enterprise Employees Downloaded Malware Every 4 Seconds in 2015, Study Finds

source: Check Point

Unknown malware increased nine times while employees downloaded a new unknown malware every four seconds in 2015, according to the Check Point Security Report and SANS 2016 Threat Landscape Study.

In total, there were nearly 12 million new malware variants discovered every month, with more new malware discovered in the past two years than the previous decade, Check Point said.

About 20 percent of employees will inadvertently introduce malware through the mobile or Wi-Fi networks.

Endpoints represent the starting points for most threats, with attackers leveraging email in 75 percent of cases.

Also, 39 percent of endpoint attacks bypassed the network gateway firewalls.

As smartphones and tablets account for 60 percent of digital media time spent, mobile devices now are the way a substantial number of breaches occur.

Comcast is Going to Rearrange U.S. Mobile Operator Market Share

As competitive as the U.S. mobile market is, it is going to get worse. Comcast will be getting into the mobile business in 2017, using a “Wi-Fi-first” approach.

Speaking at an investor conference, CEO Brian Roberts said that by mid-2017 Comcast will launch a mobile service using Verizon wholesale services and Comcast’s own network of 15 million public Wi-Fi hotspots.

The only issue is which of the four biggest U.S. mobile firms will be hurt the most. Based only on share changes T-Mobile US has reported, AT&T and Sprint are probably the most exposed.

T-Mobile US says it has added--so far in the quarter--about 753,000 net new branded postpaid phone accounts and 650,000 prepaid net customer accounts in the third quarter 2016. At that rate, T-Mobile US will show growth for the quarter, year over year.

Adding some color, T-Mobile US says it gained more than 250,000 accounts from Verizon Wireless.

T-Mobile US gained about 400,000 accounts from AT&T and nearly 300,000 from Sprint.

If Comcast enters the market with a price-lead strategy--and most believe that is precisely what it will do--Comcast should pose the same “value-price” challenge T-Mobile US already does.

Comcast says it will concentrate first on selling mobile services to its own customers, essentially expanding its triple-play bundle to a quadruple-play bundle.

If Comcast enters the market with a price-lead strategy--and most believe that is precisely what it will do--Comcast should pose the same “value-price” challenge T-Mobile US already does.

In the first quarter of 2016, there were about 393 million mobile accounts in service, with Verizon having 138 million, AT&T 130.4 million, T-Mobile US 65.5 million and Sprint 58.8 million.

For the sake of argument, if Comcast were to grab about 10 percent share in the first couple of years, that would represent about 39 million accounts. Eventually, if Comcast gets 20 percent share, that implies something on the order of 79 million accounts.

You can make your own guesses about which competing mobile service providers will be hurt the most. But in the second quarter of 2016 Verizon had 35 percent share. AT&T had about 32.5 percent share. T-Mobile US had about 16 percent share, while Sprint had about 15 percent share. All other mobile suppliers collectively had about two percent share.

So Comcast initially will spend some time as provider number five. Eventually, Comcast could surpass T-Mobile US and Sprint.

Where Verizon and XO Communications Both Sell Services, at Least 3 Competitors Operate

As part of its acquisition review of XO Communications, Verizon’s studies show that more than 96 percent of buildings in areas where XO and Verizon both operate have at least two fiber competitors in the building, in addition to Verizon and XO.

Also, 98 percent of these buildings have at least one fiber competitor in the building, in addition to Verizon and XO.

Furthermore, 99 percent of these buildings have at a minimum two or more fiber competitors either in the building or within 1,000 meters.  

The data is important because regulatory bodies will take a look at implications for competition in business markets as a result of the acquisition.

XO and Verizon both have fiber in the same building in 664 locations nationwide.

Within Verizon’s fixed network footprint, XO and Verizon both have fiber to the same building in 170 locations.

More than 95 percent (162 out of 170 in-footprint buildings) have two or more other fiber competitors in the building, in addition to Verizon and XO.  

Thus, there will be at least three fiber competitors fiber access competitors in these buildings following the transaction, and in most instances more.

Of the eight remaining buildings, six have at least one other fiber competitor in addition to Verizon and XO, plus at least one other fiber competitor located within 0.1 miles of the building.  

Thus, nearly 99 percent (168 out of 170 in-footprint buildings) will have at least one fiber competitor in the building and at least one other fiber competitor within 0.1 miles.

The remaining two buildings have at least two fiber competitors located within 0.1 miles.    

Out of footprint, XO and Verizon both have fiber in the same building in 494 locations. More than 94 percent (465 out of 494 out-of-footprint buildings) have two or more other fiber competitors in the building, in addition to Verizon and XO.  

Thus, there will be at least three fiber competitors in these buildings following the transaction, and in most instances more, Verizon says.

Again, this analysis does not account for several other communications and cable providers who also likely serve some of these buildings but for whom information is not readily available.

Of the 29 remaining buildings, 17 have at least one other fiber competitor in the building, in addition to Verizon and XO.  

Of these 17 buildings, eight also have at least one other fiber competitor located within 0.1 miles of the building, and another eight have at least one other fiber competitor located within 1,000 meters of the building.  

Thus, 97 percnet (481 out of 494 out-of-footprint buildings) will have at least one fiber competitor in the building and at least one other fiber competitor within 1000 meters.  

The remaining building of these 17 has one competitor in the building.

Of the other 12 buildings, 4 have at least two fiber competitors within 0.1 miles; two have at least one competitor within 0.1 miles and one additional competitor within 1000 meters; and six have two or more competitors within 1000 meters of the building.  

That means that more than 99 percent (493 out of 494 out-of-footprint buildings) have at a minimum two or more fiber competitors either in the building or within 1,000 meters of the buildings.

AT&T Working on New Fixed Wireless Access Platform

source: AT&aT

Add AT&T to the list of big, influential firms now seriously exploring the use of new types of fixed wireless platforms for gigabit communications in the access network.

AT&T is working on “AirGig,” a method for combining fixed wireless with power line transmission for communications, without building towers, laying cables or acquiring new spectrum.

All three of those attributes have the potential to dramatically lower the cost of delivering gigabit services in the access network.

AT&T’s Project AirGig has several key advantages”

• Easier to deploy than fiber
• Uses license-free spectrum
• No need to deploy towers, dig trenches or connect cables

At&T expects to conduct field trials in 2017.

Combined with the dominant role of cable TV networks in the access network, and the upgrades to gigabit speeds, serious questions can be asked about whether fiber to the home will continue to be viewed as the “best” way to deliver gigabit Internet access and other services to consumers.

“Project AirGig has tremendous potential to transform internet access globally, well beyond our current broadband footprint and not just in the United States,” said John Donovan, AT&T chief strategy officer.

AT&T says it has more than 100 patents or patent applications supporting this new technology and other access technologies.

source: AT&T

“We’re experimenting with multiple ways to send a modulated radio signal around or near medium-voltage power lines,” said Donovan. “There’s no direct electrical connection to the power line required and it has the potential of multi-gigabit speeds in urban, rural and underserved parts of the world.”

Project AirGig is therefore one more potential platform for Internet access and communications that uses fixed wireless.

As part of Project AirGig, AT&T Labs invented low-cost plastic antennas and devices located along the power line to re-generate millimeter wave (mmWave) signals that can be used for 4G LTE and 5G multi-gigabit mobile and fixed deployments.

“These patent-pending devices can mean low hardware and deployment costs while maintaining the highest signal quality,” said Donovan.

Biggest Competitor for Any Enterprise IT, Communications Sale is Not Other Sellers

source: Gartner

It always is tough to get to “yes” when selling communications or information technology products to enterprises.

“Your real competition is often not your competitors,” says Hank Barnes, Gartner research vice president. The status quo, or inertia, arguably is a bigger problem. The adage “you don’t get fired for buying IBM” illustrates the element of decision-maker or recommender risk when buying new technology and products.

The other problem is the sheer amount of buyer effort required to make a decision. No matter how great the promised benefits of a particular solution, there is cost (time, staff effort, political capital) to buy and use the solution.

And, needless to say, few buyers actually believe the benefits will be as great as the seller promises.

Also, internal teams, departments and business units always are vying for additional resources to help them accomplish their missions. So other projects and spending always are potential rivals for any new spending.

Not only do sales personnel need to convince buyers that a particular solution delivers value, but they also have to convince the relevant decisionmakers that any single project is more important than the others they are considering at the same time, Barnes argues.

So spending money elsewhere, or even doing nothing, always is a potential outcome, no matter the merits of a particular solution, says Barnes.

Will Football Win for AT&T?

Will AT&T’s success in entertainment video ultimately hinge on success for NFL Sunday Ticket,  the out-of-market National Football League service? Possibly, especially in the near term.

Longer term, newer formats (over the top, mobile) will develop, and it is unclear how much success in linear video will contribute, though AT&T and many others believe success in linear video will contribute to future success in OTT--and especially mobile--video.

Win or lose, AT&T’s likely gambit will once again prove why unique content assets are so valuable, whether that is original series produced by Netflix or Amazon Prime, or the original series efforts that have for decades been a core part of the strategy for most linear video networks.

In a business where much content is identical on every linear network, unique assets are important. And, win or lose, AT&T is banking on NFL Sunday Ticket to be a huge driver of account growth.

There are other issues, though.

Over the last two quarters, intentionally or not, AT&T has been losing U-verse video accounts while DirecTV accounts have grown.

In the second quarter of 2016, AT&T had net additions of 342,000 DirecTV subs, but net losses of 391,000 U-verse customer accounts served by the fixed network were a drag on net growth.

Some might argue AT&T has to surmount a “digital subscriber line to U-verse” problem it has faced in its consumer Internet access business. AT&T lost 110,000 Internet accounts in the second quarter of 2016, adding 54,000 IP broadband (U-verse) customers, but losing 164,000 DSL (all-copper network) subs.

In other words, as AT&T moves existing customers from one platform to another, it has a zero net gain. Some amount of DirecTV “growth” will have a net zero gain for AT&T’s overall entertainment video business.

And, as a background matter, if AT&T is losing accounts overall. As nearly all fixed network service providers also are losing landline accounts, AT&T naturally should see additional ideo attrition pressures as it loses voice accounts.

As its primary cable TV competitors compete with triple-play offers, losing any single service is also likely to pull along a loss of one or two other services.

The other question is the extent to which AT&T actively is pushing its U-verse video customers to buy DirecTV instead of U-verse. That seems to be happening.

Early on, many thought that was the plan, all along. AT&T knows linear video is a product in the “decline” period of its product cycle, so the lower delivery cost and national footprint (except for Dish Network, no other linear video provider has a national footprint) will likely matter.

Also, as some have noted, offloading video traffic from the fixed network frees up bandwidth for Internet access, a strategic approach U.S. cable TV operators have been doing for some time, shifting to digital delivery of video (and signal compression)  in part because that frees up more bandwidth for Internet access services.

It also now appears that the U-Verse brand is going to be dropped, in favor of simple “AT&T video” or “AT&T Internet” branding.

AT&T might also be encountering an operational learning curve as well. It is not clear to what extent  equipment installs are being shifted to internal AT&T crews, rather than using the former DirecTV crews. Nor is it clear how well AT&T sales staff are selling the new product. But it would not be unusual for a learning curve to take place.