If Telecom Survives, It Will be Because it Finds a Way to Replace Revenues from Services Sold to People

In many ways, 5G is a confusing and complicated topic. Some question the need for 5G, others its cost. Armand Musey, Summit Ridge Group founder, says the talk about 5G remains him of 2000 and the internet bubble, with all the wild talk about unlimited growth.

Ironically, some of us would argue, those inflated hopes actually were fulfilled. The internet did up being the “next big thing.” So it is possible that some expectations are unrealistic, in the near term.

But if even the shattering history of the internet bubble burst suggests dashed expectations--even huge disappointments--are a possibility, some would argue the direction is correct. Wild spending of course is a danger.

But the fundamental premise of 5G--a network designed from the beginning to support machine-to-machine communications and sensor networks--is a necessary bet on the future of whole telecom business. That is not always so clear, it seems.

A U.K. government report says mobile connectivity now is essential, not a luxury. “Today, 93 percent of adults in the UK own and use a mobile phone,” says the Connected Future report.

“5G means seamless connectivity. Ultra-fast and ultra-reliable, transmitting massive amounts of data at super low latency.” To be sure, the document also says 5G “will support the ever increasing requirements of the existing network and new applications.”

But the main thrust still seems to be on the “faster” angle. The big focus arguably should be on the exhaustion of the existing business model, and the role 5G is supposed to have as the platform for creating new revenue streams at least as big as the entire present industry earns.

When people argue there is “no spectrum shortage,” as does Pierre de Vries, Silicon Flatirons spectrum policy initiative co-director, there are several angles. Except at peak hours, one can argue that collective capacity for all U.S. mobile networks, for example, is sufficient to handle demand.

That is particularly true as as much as 80 percent of total mobile data demand is met by Wi-Fi, as Bob Pepper, Facebook global connectivity and technology policy executive notes.

There is even debate about whether spectrum sharing is a response to immediate scarcity. Spectrum sharing in the 3.5-GHz band, for example, is not necessarily driven by spectrum shortages, but by exploration of  new methods of allocating spectrum, says Tricia Paoletta, Harris, Wiltshire & Grannis partner.

But Kalpak Gude, Dynamic Spectrum Alliance president, argues that there are spectrum shortages, and that dynamic spectrum can help solve such problems.

Even if one believes there is a need for much more spectrum, and that scarcity is a problem we want to replace with abundance, that is not actually the main reason 5G is “required.”

One of the persistent misunderstandings about 5G is that it is primarily about “more bandwidth” or “higher speeds” accessible to consumers. In fact, it is a practical attempt to create the underpinning for a major shift of mobile operator business models.

The coming 5G platform might be the most-radical break we ever have seen in the mobile and broader telecom business since the end of the monopoly era.

Some of us would argue that the telecom business cannot, long term, support itself on revenues earned by selling services to people.

Instead, the industry must find big new services and revenues earned some other way. The importance of 5G is that it sets the stage for a business model built on selling services to enterprises, to support sensor and control networks.

In a simple--but reasonably accurate way--the change is from selling services used by people to selling services used by machines.

There is only so much people are willing to pay for voice, messaging, even internet access or video. And all those markets are mature, or about to become mature. The 5G network will not change that.

So if 5G succeeds, and if the telecom industry survives or thrives, it will be because huge new revenue streams are created or discovered that replace revenues earned by selling services people use. It is just that simple.

Biggest Misconception about 5G: It's About Bandwidth Used by Consumers

One of the persistent misunderstandings about 5G is that it is primarily about “more bandwidth” or “higher speeds” accessible to consumers. To be sure, 5G is the latest mobile platform to support higher data bandwidth, as illustrated by Dr. Mick Etoh of NTT Docomo. But Etoh also points out that the platforms also have increasingly been about creating new markets and revenue streams, ranging from mobile multimedia (3G) to application markets (3.5G) to personal storage (4G).

The coming 5G platform might be the most-radical break so far. In fact, some of us would argue, the big change is that the mobile business--if it is successful--will change from a business based on selling services to people, to selling services to enterprise sensor and control networks.

In a simple--but reasonably accurate way--the change is from selling services used by people to selling services used by machines.

There is only so much people are willing to pay for voice, messaging, even internet access or video. And all those markets are mature, or about to become mature. The 5G network will not change that.

So if 5G succeeds, and if the telecom industry survives or thrives, it will be because huge new revenue streams are created or discovered that replace revenues earned by selling services people use. It is just that simple.

Among the other complications is that the cost of supplying the capabilities people want to use is far higher than was the case for voice and messaging. About three times as much, per customer, so say. There are a couple of reasons. Every network, in a competitive environment, strands a good part of the investment (there is no revenue earned). Also, data infrastructure costs more than voice infrastructure.

Eventually, without creation of huge new markets and revenue streams, that is going to cause huge disruptions and bankruptcies in the telecom business.

Already, it is only possible to sell some services to people by radical discounting. In consumer markets, that takes the form of product bundles that are a form of price discounting. The bundle both boosts value (voice, video and internet access or mobile) and lowers effective price (the bundle costs far less than the services bought individually.

How Do You Sell Landline Voice to Consumers Who Do Not Want it?

How do you sell fixed network voice to consumers that do not really want to buy? It is a growing issue, as 52 percent of U.S. adult respondents live in households that are mobile-only, according to GfK MRI. In fact, 77 percent of Millennials do not buy fixed network voice service.

Basically, suppliers have to boost the value, cut the price, or do both. Fundamentally, that is what a bundle if all about (triple play, quadruple play or dual play).

Telcos and cable companies long ago concluded that bundles create value by price cutting. Consider what Verizon is doing as it introduces its new 750-Mbps symmetrical service. It sells standalone internet access for $150 a month. It sells a bundle including that same access, plus a full TV service and landline voice, for just $170 for the triple-play bundle. That’s a lot of extra value for $20 a month incremental spending.

There are other ways to spin the offer. You also can argue that many consumers face a choice that essentially boils down to “I want internet access and video, and will take the voice service if it essentially costs nothing.”

Some U.S. consumers have been doing so for years, buying triple plays when they really only want internet access and video, and then simply not using the voice line.

Other consumers have continued to justify the purchase of fixed line service because mobile service inside the home is occasionally or always flaky. That also might change, though, as voice supported by Wi-Fi access gains traction. That should eliminate many mobile network signal reception issues.

Some believe quadruple play bundles could explain regional differences in fixed line voice purchases. Others of us might argue the issue is really in-home signal reception, as bundles are available everywhere. There also could be other factors at work, including demography, as mobile-only behavior varies by age and ethnicity.

The Northeast has the smallest concentration of mobile-only households, at 39 percent. In other regions, levels of no-landline homes range from 53 percent  (Midwest) to 57 percent  (South).

GfK MRI data show that a full 57 percent of Northeast homes buy a bundle, compared to 49 percent in the South and even less elsewhere.

As often is the case, trends start with younger consumers, then gradually also are adopted by older consumers. The proportion of senior citizens (ages 65+) in mobile-only households quadrupled over the past six years to 23 percent, while the figure for Millennials (born from 1977 to 1994) climbed to 71 percent from 47 percent.

After Millennials, Generation X (born 1965 to 1976) is the age group most likely to live in mobile-only households, at 55 percent. Some 40 percent of Baby Boomer (born 1946 to 1964)households are mobile-only.

Among ethnic and racial groups, adults of Hispanic or Latino origin or descent have the highest incidence of mobile-only behavior, with 67 percent reporting cell-only status. Other groups have roughly 50 percent incidence, with Asian Americans at 54 percent; whites, 51 percent; and African Americans, 50 percent.

Net Neutrality is at a Fork in the Road, But not an Existential Fork

Outgoing Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler says we are at a fork in the road where it comes to network neutrality and gatekeeper policy. You will hear some argue we face the "death of net neutrality."

That is unlikely. What we likely will see is a change in the scope of network neutrality (strong or more limited forms), a change in "how" we deal with protections (prohibiting behavior in advance or waiting to act only when abuses happen) and sometimes, "who" (which agency) regulates.

We might also see a change in thinking about where gatekeeper power actually exists, using a more symmetrical approach (watching for abuses by all gatekeepers--access or edge).

Up to this point network neutrality has been about policy that regards only internet access providers as gatekeepers.

Wheeler continued to use that formulation in his public letter to the new incoming FCC administration, whoever that might be. Wheeler emphasizes “an era of ISPs operating responsibly at both the edge and the core network.”

That is not necessarily the thinking that could, some might argue “should” be the context of policy in the future. Economist Hal Singer, for example, argues that both edge providers (app providers such as Google or Facebook) and big ISPs (Comcast, Charter, AT&T or Verizon) can have gatekeeper power, and both edge and access need to be evaluated, when gatekeeper market power is evaluated.

The new conversations, under a new administration, might well shift to that wider context, with some new approaches to “where” consumer protection functions should reside, for example. Some believe the Federal Trade Commission, which has that broad consumer protection function is where that oversight should reside, not at the FCC.

On the other hand, it is unclear how ex-ante before the event) and ex-post (after the fact) regulatory approaches might be adjusted. Under Wheeler, the approach has been ex-ante: setting rules that proscribe behavior. The other approach is ex-post: taking case by case action when abuses arise.

The former approach is more of a command-and-control approach; the latter is more of a “go ahead and innovate, and we’ll examine abuses if they arise” approach.

It seems clear that change is coming. Some think the danger is a repeal of all “network neutrality” rules. Others might argue the big change is use of the “common carrier” framework. There originally was broad support for net neutrality (net freedoms) rules that protected consumer access to all lawful applications. There has been great friction over the use of the common carrier framework, and “strong” forms of ex-ante regulation that prohibit innovation, by outlawing any forms of quality of service for internet apps.

Many would agree there is a possibility of market power abuse in the broad internet ecosystem, by a few firms operating “at the edge” (app providers) or as access providers. Among the many issues, though is how to best protect competition and innovation without proscribing or prescribing activity, in advance of any potential abuses.

What needs to be done, and by whom, using what tools, now is a live issue.

Verizon Lowers Prices for 150-Mbps Internet Access, Replaces 500-Mbps Tier with 750-Mbps Tier

It has been expected that the new Verizon 750-Mbps symmetrical service would create a new pricing reference that would lead to lower prices for the other existing Verizon plans below 470-Mbps. That appears to be the case.

Prior to the 750-Mbps launch, the base tier was a symmetrical 50 Mbps tier. The 100-Mbps tier was $10 extra each month. The 150-Mbps tier was an extra $10 above the 100-Mbps tier, and then there were $100 a month increases for the symmetrical 300-Mbps tier and 500-Mbps symmetrical tier.

50/50 Base
100/100 +$10 from 50/50
150/150 +$10 from 100/100
300/300 +$100 from 150/150
500/500 +$100 from 300/300

Now, in areas where 750-Mbps symmetrical services is available, the 300-Mbps tier of service will cost $30 a month more than the 150-Mbps service, and the 750-Mbps tier will cost $50 more than the 300-Mbps service.

In other words, prices now will be lower for the 300 Mbps tier, and for the 750-Mbps tier, which replaces the former 500-Mbps tier.

50/50 Base
100/100 +$10 from 50/50
150/150 +$10 from 100/100
300/300 +$30 from 150/150
750/750 +$50 from 300/300

Why Internet Access Will Eventually Reach Nearly 100%

It has been my contention that, some day, internet access adoption would eventually reach close to 100 percent, driven by television and media consumption, not use of personal computers.

Some 90 percent of U.S. residents use the internet and about 75 percent buy fixed network service to use at their homes, according to the Pew Research Center. About 10 percent rely exclusively on mobile phones for internet access.

The logic is simple enough: adoption rates for linear video, in the U.S. market, reached about 87 percent at the peak of the adoption cycle.

Including satellite-delivered and telco-delivered television, household adoption of linear video reached 100 percent. The analogy is that, as video delivery shifted to the internet, those levels of adoption would help drive internet access up to nearly 100 percent, since such access supports computing, mobile and television consumption.

The other prediction that has been easy to make is that mobility would become a more-important part of the media consumption, “time spent with apps or internet,” and access network market share as well.

Even as mobile messaging and social apps remain dominant, with time spent in social and messaging apps grew by 394 percent in 2016, Flurry Analytics reports.

Also, in large part, consumers used their social and messaging apps as their voice and video calling utilities, and now are becoming gateways for consumption of media content as well.

source: KCPB

source: Flurry

Next Generations of "Computing" Might Change "Computing Market"

It is not easy to figure out what the next generation of computing will look like, or who will lead it.

What is clear is that computing moves through eras that have been defined by the archetypical machines in each era: mainframes, followed by mini-computers, then personal computers (first stand alone and then connected to local area networks, then to the internet), then mobiles. Now we are nearing an era where machine-to-machine apps or connected consumer devices might be the defining devices.

It also is fair to note that a focus on the archetypical “devices” might miss the shift as seen through the applications, business models and purposes computing supports. In the mainframe era, computing supported enterprise business or large organization purposes. In the mini-computer era, computing tools spread to organizations and entities of smaller size. In the PC era small business and then computers began using computing devices.

In what we might call the internet era, computing shifted away from enterprises and has largely been driven by consumer apps, new business models and roles, growing in pervasiveness, going mobile or untethered (ambient) and increasingly becoming embedded in consumer apps and life.

Facebook and Google, for example, have become computing leaders whose revenue models are based on advertising. Amazon is a computing leader whose revenue model is based, in part, on retailing.

Also, computing increasingly has become something that is remote, distributed and connected, as cloud computing increasingly shows with more “core” computing handled on a remote device, not locally resident, as was the original pattern.

So far, no clear and universally accepted term defines the recent evolutions of computing. In fact, it is becoming very hard to clearly delineate where computing ends and communications begins. Once upon a time “computing” tallied money spent on “computers and software,” as well as services supporting users of computers.

These days, one has to talk about internet applications and activities, smartphones and “connected life” to understand how, why and where core computing happens.

source: KPCB

source: KPCB

But a next generation will come, and the way it comes might make irrelevant the terms we use to understand and track “computing.” We certainly do not track the “electricity-using” appliances “industry,” but we do track electricity generation and delivery.

That might some day happen to “computing” as well. There will be some firms we track on parts of the computing business (data centers, semiconductors, enterprise and consumer app suppliers, support services). But large parts of the “computing” industry might be tracked in other categories, such as media or commerce.

It seems clear that a change in devices that use computing offers hints, as does the increasingly distributed nature of computing, which implies that “communications” will underpin future computing in a pervasive and fundamental sense. That is why “cloud computing” (now conducted in large and mega-scale data centers, perhaps in the future also conducted at edge locations) is of such interest to “communications” professionals.

It also seems clear it is getting harder to define "computing" or "information technology" as clearly as once seemed possible.

source: Creative Strategies