Shared Spectrum Role to Grow

Shared spectrum is likely to be used in several ways in the U..S. market first to support 4G, and then likely in more-intensive forms as 5G is introduced.

Among the U.S. bands where spectrum sharing will be key is about 500 MHz of capacity in the Wi-Fi 5-GHz band, as well as about 150 MHz in the 3.5-GHz Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) band. In Europe, the 2.3-GHz band will be where shared spectrum first is tried.

Spectrum sharing also is expected around  the 60-GHz band, where  7 GHz is available for sharing in the frequency ranges between 57 GHz and 64 GHz, and where an additional 7 GHz of capacity is being considered for shared use.

Spectrum sharing also is being evaluated in the licensed 71 GHz to 76 GHz band and 81 GHz to 86 GHz bands which have in the past been used for point-to-point radio links.

source: Heavy Reading

Openreach War Ends, Now Market Decides

The war over Openreach (functional or structural separation) is over. BT and Ofcom have reached agreement on a long-term regulatory settlement that will see Openreach become a distinct, legally separate company with its own board, within the BT Group.

In a sense, the disagreements have centered less on the “wholesale” approach (that was never in question) but only on the amount of possible favoritism Openreach might show to BT, compared to all the other wholesale customers. The new arrangement loosens, but does not break, the ties between Openreach and BT. Openreach is an independent company within the BT Group.

To the extent that facilities-based fixed network competition exists or expands, it will come from cable TV companies who rely on their own networks, using different technology standards. Longer term, facilities-based competition will come from mobile networks (5G in fixed mode) and possible other platforms. In fact, mobile substitution already seems to be growing.

Beyond that, we still do not know the extent to which other platforms will prove to have scale (power line, balloons, satellites in low-earth orbit, drones, Wi-Fi). As Openreach starts to build more fiber-to-home facilities, it is likely the shares of “fastest” access will change. Up to this point, cable operators have supplied a disproportionate share of such lines.

That has been true in the U.S. market as well, which chose to rely on facilities-based competition rather than wholesale.

source: ISP Review

Fiber-to-home will be important if Openreach has to compete head to head with cable networks, which already have technology to reach gigabit speeds without plant upgrades, and have suppliers working to boost speeds into the 10 Gbps range with plant modifications.

Distance to cabinet (metres)	Estimated downstream connection speed	Estimated upstream connection speed	Cumulative %'age of premises at this distance
100m	100 Mbps	25 Mbps	5%
150m	80 Mbps	20 Mbps	10%
200m	65 Mbps	18 Mbps	20%
300m	45 Mbps	17 Mbps	30%
400m	42 Mbps	16 Mbps	45%
500m	38 Mbps	15 Mbps	60%
600m	35 Mbps	14 Mbps	70%
700m	32 Mbps	11 Mbps	75%
800m	28 Mbps	10 Mbps	80%
900m	2 5 Mbps	9 Mbps	85%
1000m	24 Mbps	8 Mbps	90%
1250m	17 Mbps	5 Mbps	95%
1500m	15 Mbps	4 Mbps	98%

source: Thinkbroadband

5G Will Drive Edge Computing

Though 5G often is considered the next mobile air interface, it also is enabled by core network virtualization and even could play a part in boosting edge computing, as mobile networks are used to support many new internet of things applications.

For example, today’s service providers have cloud computing requirements to support their own network services with 100 milliseconds of latency, a maximum of 10 megabits per second of throughput, and no more than 10 billion devices that cost up to $1,000 each and with a battery life of one day, according to Said Berrahil, Nokia VP.

For tomorrow’s network, the telco cloud requirements might need latency of no more than one millisecond, support network speeds in excess of 10 gigabits per second, and host up to one trillion devices that cost $1 each, said Berrahil.

A cloud data center can meet the 100-millisecond latency up to 10,000 kilometers distant from any end user.

When latency must be four milliseconds, the cloud data center needs to be no more than 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) away, while services in need of latency less than one millisecond would require edge data center deployments “almost within eyesight.”

Fixed Wireless Spectrum to Get U.K. Boost

Spectrum expected to be used in the United Kingdom to support 5G networks includes spectrum from 694 MHz to 790 MHz; 3.8 GHz to 4.2 GHz range,  3.4 GHz to 3.8 GHz; 24.25 GHz to 27.5 GHz. Other possible bands above 30 GHz include 32 GHz, 40 GHz and 66 GHz.

Some of that spectrum will be available relatively soon, including spectrum below 4 GHz for mobile applications, and below 9 GHz for backhaul, Wi-Fi and fixed wireless purposes.

Which Parts of Ecosystem Will 5G Disrupt?

The 5G network should prove disruptive to participants in other parts of the ecosystem, as well as to new ecosystems. That arguably has been the case in the past, so we should be watching for what happens, to whom, and where.

The first generation of mobile created alternatives to fixed phone lines, triggering the huge mobile substitution trend that has decimated use of fixed voice services.

The 2G network created the text messaging business and also demolished the paging business.

The 3G network enabled mobile email and then mobile internet. Most likely would agree that 4G enabled tethering of PCs and other devices, plus video consumption and smartphones with pleasant user experience when accessing cloud data.

But 4G also largely displaced MP3 players and pocket cameras.   

It would be unusual indeed if the coming 5G network did not cannibalize some existing communications functions and roles; industry segments or participants.

Some will point to fixed internet access as a potential early casualty, as the mobile network--operating in fixed mode--could compete head to head with fixed services for the first time on a massive scale. Up to this point, some percentage of consumers already has learned to substitute mobile access for fixed access.

But that has been a limited phenomenon, generally favored by mobile-only users who do not watch much video. The 5G network might change all that. In fact, even unlimited mobile data, or exempting streaming video from usage charges, might already be creating such habits.

The 5G network should be different than prior mobile generations for many reasons. It should become the first generation of mobile networks to enable use by machines, sensors and servers, rather than humans. Faster and lower-latency mobile broadband will be a feature humans will notice, to be sure.

But the primary new categories of usage is expected to be by sensor networks of various types whose requirements are not so much bandwidth as low latency or low cost.

Also, 5G should be the first mobile network that integrates multiple networks, organically, for access (licensed and unlicensed; owned and third party assets). In other words, 5G will be more virtualized than prior generations.

HughesNet to Launch 25 Mbps Satellite Internet Access Service

The latest Federal Communications Commission report on broadband access suggests the potential for services such as HughesNet, which soon will be able to deliver 25 Mbps downstream speeds across the continental United States. Today, HughesNet can deliver up to 15 Mbps speeds.

Some 10 percent of all U.S. residents (34 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps service. If one assumes an average of 2.5 persons per household, that suggests an addressable market of perhaps 13.6 million households.  

According to the FCC, up to 23 million of those people live in rural area. So 68 percent of the satellite broadband opportunity exists in rural areas, or about 9.2 million households.

Of course, internet speeds keep climbing, in the United States and globally, so neither HughesNet nor any other internet service provider can rest content with any present offer.

The global average connection speed increased 12 percent, quarter-over-quarter to 7 Mbps, a 26 percent increase, according to Akamai.

Year-over-year, on a global basis, the average connection speed increased 26 percent.

Year-over-year, the global 25 Mbps broadband adoption rate increased by 45 percent. Eight of the top ten countries/regions enjoyed gains, ranging from 34 percent in Japan to 201 percent in Singapore.

In the United States, average connection speeds were above 10 Mbps in the fourth quarter of 2016, in every state, with 34 states seeing speeds above 15 Mbps, up from 30 in the previous quarter, says Akamai.

In its report on U.S. internet access, the Federal Communications Commission found that median broadband speeds across the country increased 22 percent in the past year, from 32 Mbps to 39 Mbps. The study was based on 13 ISPs representing more than 80 percent of U.S. subscribers.

North American Consumers Prefer 20 Channels, at $28 to $29 a Month, Tivo Finds

When they are able to buy channels a la carte, U.S. consumers will pay about $29 a month for 20 favorite channels, while Canadians will pay $28 a month for their 20 favorite channels, TiVo’s latest report on video finds. And though it is only a one-quarter change, the price consumes in the United States and Canada are willing to pay dropped 12 percent.

	Q4 2016	Q3 2016	Quarterly Change
Price for Top 20 Channels - United States	$28.87	$32.92	- 12.3% q/q
Price for Top 20 Channels - Canada	$28.16	$32.00	- 12.0% q/q

In terms of specific genres, consumers say they watched 18 percent fewer National Football League games in 2016, compared to 2015, for a variety of reported reasons, including games that were not as interesting, too many commercials, but also 11 percent who said political issues were a turn off.

Use of “TV Everywhere” features (TVE) grew about nine percent in 2016, year over year, including viewing on PCs, tablets or smartphones.

Linear video is used by 83 percent of respondents. Of the 17 percent not buying, 20 percent reported cutting service over the last year. It is important to remember that is a “gross” figure, not a “net’ figure that offsets account closures with new accounts added. In most recent years, the net change has been less than one percent.

Of stated objections, 80 percent of customers abandoning service said the service was too expensive. Some 48 percent said they were using a streaming service, Tivo said.

Source: Tivo

Content packagers are likely quite right to assume that a shift to a la carte buying would disrupt the existing linear business. Some 64 percent of respondents suggested the ability to buy only channels they wanted would be a new reason to abandon linear service.

Also, in contrast to customer satisfaction surveys that show continuing unhappiness with video services, 78 percent of respondents reported they are “very satisfied” or “satisfied” with their service, while the number of respondents claiming “poor service” has declined 11 percent over the last two years.

Service reductions (cord shaving) also is happening. Some 52 percent said they

“reduced” levels of service in some way, such as reducing buying of premium channels, or reducing the number of outlets in the home.