Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Will Antitrust Actually Change Hyperscaler Market Dominance?

Antitrust lawsuits often “sound good” as they essentially promise to promote market competition. But such lawsuits might, as legislation often is, aimed at problems that are going away. 


United States v. Microsoft Corp. (May 18, 1998): This was the primary lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), joined by 20 states. It alleged that Microsoft engaged in anti-competitive practices, primarily related to bundling Internet Explorer with Windows and hindering other browser competitors like Netscape.


The argument at the time was that the lawsuit was necessary to reduce monopoly power. Microsoft held a dominant position in the operating system market and was said to use bundling and other tactics to squeeze out competitors.


The particular case in point was bundling of a browser with the OS. With hindsight, we might question the necessity of the action. 


The antitrust decision that prevented bundling of Internet Explorer with the operating system seems to have had limited impact on OS or browser market share. 


Despite the antitrust case, Microsoft maintained its dominant position in the OS market, though some might argue that the rise of Google’s Chrome browser might have been helped by the “no bundling” rules. 


Critics argue the issue was self-correcting as the rise of the internet diminished the importance of desktop operating systems as “gatekeepers.” And almost nobody believes that a user’s choice of browser has much of any impact on market shares of internet apps and services. 


On the other hand, some might argue that the dominance of the Chrome browser is partly because it is pre-bundled with the popular Android operating system. But others might note that Chrome benefits from 

A user-friendly interface; speed and performance advantages; cross-platform integration; a substantial  extension library and frequent updates and improvements. 


Still, it can be argued that no device operating system or browser offers gatekeeper power in the internet era. 


Another example of major regulatory change was the U.S. 1996 Telecom Act, which aimed to promote voice competition in the telecom industry. As the act itself stated, “it is the purpose of this Act to promote competition and reduce regulation in order to secure lower prices and higher quality services for American telecommunications consumers, to encourage the rapid deployment of new telecommunications technologies and services to all Americans, and to provide for the orderly transition of the telecommunications industry from its monopoly past to a competitive future."


As a practical matter, that meant rules to increase competition in the voice services market. 


Of course, all that happened in the context of the emergence of the internet, which we might all agree changed the focus of “telecommunications” from voice to data and internet access, while the importance of “mobile” services also increased rapidly. 


Year

Fixed Network Voice

Mobile Voice

Internet Access & Messaging

Total Revenue

1996

$85.4 billion

$12.7 billion

$13.2 billion

$111.3 billion

1997

$87.8 billion

$20.5 billion

$17.1 billion

$125.4 billion

1998

$91.2 billion

$33.2 billion

$23.4 billion

$147.8 billion

1999

$93.7 billion

$52.1 billion

$32.9 billion

$178.7 billion

2000

$95.2 billion

$78.4 billion

$45.3 billion

$218.9 billion

2001

$93.7 billion

$87.2 billion

$52.1 billion

$233.0 billion

2002

$91.3 billion

$93.5 billion

$59.4 billion

$244.2 billion

2003

$88.2 billion

$99.1 billion

$67.3 billion

$254.6 billion

2004

$84.8 billion

$103.8 billion

$76.2 billion

$264.8 billion

2005

$81.2 billion

$108.3 billion

$86.1 billion

$275.6 billion

2006

$77.4 billion

$113.5 billion

$97.2 billion

$288.1 billion

2007

$73.3 billion

$119.1 billion

$109.4 billion

$301.8 billion

2008

$69.0 billion

$123.7 billion

$123.1 billion

$315.8 billion

2009

$64.4 billion

$127.5 billion

$138.4 billion

$330.3 billion

2010

$59.3 billion

$131.8 billion

$155.2 billion

$346.3 billion

2011

$54.8 billion

$135.5 billion

$173.7 billion

$364.0 billion

2012

$50.9 billion

$138.8 billion

$193.4 billion

$383.1 billion

2013

$47.6 billion

$141.7 billion

$214.5 billion

$403.8 billion

2014

$44.9 billion

$144.2 billion

$236.8 billion

$425.9 billion

2015

$42.7 billion

$146.1 billion

$260.3 billion

$449.1 billion

2016

$40.8 billion

$147.5 billion

$284.8 billion

$473.1 billion

2017

$39.2 billion

$148.4 billion

$309.9 billion

$497.5 billion

2018

$37.9 billion

$148.9 billion

$336.2 billion

$523.0 billion

2019

$36.9 billion

$149.0 billion

$363.7 billion

$549.6 billion

2020

$36.1 billion

$148.8 billion

$392.5 billion

$577.4 billion

While it can be argued that the Telecom Act helped propel those changes, many observers would argue the changes happened largely in spite of the act, and not “because of it.” The mobile business already was competitive (multiple major providers) while the data access business always was unregulated. 


The Telecom Act mostly had a practical effect on fixed network services and voice, a segment that was destined to become a minor part of the total  business.


How Much AI Revenue Do Alphabet and Microsoft Already Earn?

Sooner rather than later, financial analysts tasked with quantifying the revenue impact of artificial intelligence were bound to start asking questions about direct revenue lift. That tends to be a bit opaque since new products, with relatively low revenue contributions, tend not be broken out explicitly when financial reporting happens. 


You might recall that it took some time before Amazon and Microsoft would break out cloud computing revenues, for example. That same process now applies to AI revenues. 


Company

AI Revenue Source

Estimated AI Revenue

Impact on Overall Revenue

Google

Google Cloud Platform AI Services (Dialogflow, AI Platform)

$2.5 - $3.0 billion

12 - 15% of GCP revenue, 3 - 4% of total revenue


Advertising and Marketing Tools with AI (Google Ads, Marketing Platform)

$1.0 - $1.5 billion

5 - 8% of advertising revenue, 1 - 2% of total revenue


Search and other Google Apps with AI (Google Assistant, Photos)

Indirect growth contribution

Microsoft

Azure AI Services (Azure AI, Azure Machine Learning)

$5.0 - $6.0 billion

20 - 24% of Azure revenue, 8 - 10% of total revenue


Productivity and Business Applications with AI (Office 365, Dynamics)

Indirect growth contribution 

?


Search and Advertising with AI (Bing, Dynamics 365 Marketing

Indirect growth contribution 

?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Where are Hyperscalers in Terms of Crossing the Chasm?

If the concept of crossing the chasm has validity, it also will apply to adoption of artificial intelligence. According to the concept, very-early adopters are technology enthusiasts. 

source: Ignition Framework 


One of the key insights is that mass market adoption will be driven by pragmatic end users who see value in using a technology, where the early adopters are more interested in “breakthrough” technology and mass market consumers are more interested in applied value, usefulness and cost benefits. 


As applied to AI, or large learning models, firms most likely to invest heavily at this early stage include infrastructure suppliers of graphics processor units; GPU as a service providers; data centers and developers of LLMs. 


Other early adopters will include enterprise and consumer software suppliers who want to ensure their existing products take advantage of LLMs. 

source: themarketingstudent.com 


Right at this moment, it might be fair to characterize enterprise software suppliers as being in the innovator stage, moving towards “early adopter” status when it comes to LLMs and AI in general. Where to place consumer software suppliers--including providers of search, social media or e-commerce, might be more complex. 


Obviously, Amazon has been using AI to support its recommendation engines for some time, as well as its speech-to-text functions. Google seems to have moved faster to incorporate LLMs into its core search functions, while Microsoft has moved to incorporate LLM functionality into its office suite. 


That tends to make Google, Amazon and Microsoft “early adopters” as well as innovators, to the extent that each is developing LLMs. 


Adoption by early majority customers has yet to be reached, as such customers care more about practical value and cost savings than tech prowess as such.


Directv-Dish Merger Fails

Directv’’s termination of its deal to merge with EchoStar, apparently because EchoStar bondholders did not approve, means EchoStar continue...