Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Will Antitrust Actually Change Hyperscaler Market Dominance?

Antitrust lawsuits often “sound good” as they essentially promise to promote market competition. But such lawsuits might, as legislation often is, aimed at problems that are going away. 


United States v. Microsoft Corp. (May 18, 1998): This was the primary lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), joined by 20 states. It alleged that Microsoft engaged in anti-competitive practices, primarily related to bundling Internet Explorer with Windows and hindering other browser competitors like Netscape.


The argument at the time was that the lawsuit was necessary to reduce monopoly power. Microsoft held a dominant position in the operating system market and was said to use bundling and other tactics to squeeze out competitors.


The particular case in point was bundling of a browser with the OS. With hindsight, we might question the necessity of the action. 


The antitrust decision that prevented bundling of Internet Explorer with the operating system seems to have had limited impact on OS or browser market share. 


Despite the antitrust case, Microsoft maintained its dominant position in the OS market, though some might argue that the rise of Google’s Chrome browser might have been helped by the “no bundling” rules. 


Critics argue the issue was self-correcting as the rise of the internet diminished the importance of desktop operating systems as “gatekeepers.” And almost nobody believes that a user’s choice of browser has much of any impact on market shares of internet apps and services. 


On the other hand, some might argue that the dominance of the Chrome browser is partly because it is pre-bundled with the popular Android operating system. But others might note that Chrome benefits from 

A user-friendly interface; speed and performance advantages; cross-platform integration; a substantial  extension library and frequent updates and improvements. 


Still, it can be argued that no device operating system or browser offers gatekeeper power in the internet era. 


Another example of major regulatory change was the U.S. 1996 Telecom Act, which aimed to promote voice competition in the telecom industry. As the act itself stated, “it is the purpose of this Act to promote competition and reduce regulation in order to secure lower prices and higher quality services for American telecommunications consumers, to encourage the rapid deployment of new telecommunications technologies and services to all Americans, and to provide for the orderly transition of the telecommunications industry from its monopoly past to a competitive future."


As a practical matter, that meant rules to increase competition in the voice services market. 


Of course, all that happened in the context of the emergence of the internet, which we might all agree changed the focus of “telecommunications” from voice to data and internet access, while the importance of “mobile” services also increased rapidly. 


Year

Fixed Network Voice

Mobile Voice

Internet Access & Messaging

Total Revenue

1996

$85.4 billion

$12.7 billion

$13.2 billion

$111.3 billion

1997

$87.8 billion

$20.5 billion

$17.1 billion

$125.4 billion

1998

$91.2 billion

$33.2 billion

$23.4 billion

$147.8 billion

1999

$93.7 billion

$52.1 billion

$32.9 billion

$178.7 billion

2000

$95.2 billion

$78.4 billion

$45.3 billion

$218.9 billion

2001

$93.7 billion

$87.2 billion

$52.1 billion

$233.0 billion

2002

$91.3 billion

$93.5 billion

$59.4 billion

$244.2 billion

2003

$88.2 billion

$99.1 billion

$67.3 billion

$254.6 billion

2004

$84.8 billion

$103.8 billion

$76.2 billion

$264.8 billion

2005

$81.2 billion

$108.3 billion

$86.1 billion

$275.6 billion

2006

$77.4 billion

$113.5 billion

$97.2 billion

$288.1 billion

2007

$73.3 billion

$119.1 billion

$109.4 billion

$301.8 billion

2008

$69.0 billion

$123.7 billion

$123.1 billion

$315.8 billion

2009

$64.4 billion

$127.5 billion

$138.4 billion

$330.3 billion

2010

$59.3 billion

$131.8 billion

$155.2 billion

$346.3 billion

2011

$54.8 billion

$135.5 billion

$173.7 billion

$364.0 billion

2012

$50.9 billion

$138.8 billion

$193.4 billion

$383.1 billion

2013

$47.6 billion

$141.7 billion

$214.5 billion

$403.8 billion

2014

$44.9 billion

$144.2 billion

$236.8 billion

$425.9 billion

2015

$42.7 billion

$146.1 billion

$260.3 billion

$449.1 billion

2016

$40.8 billion

$147.5 billion

$284.8 billion

$473.1 billion

2017

$39.2 billion

$148.4 billion

$309.9 billion

$497.5 billion

2018

$37.9 billion

$148.9 billion

$336.2 billion

$523.0 billion

2019

$36.9 billion

$149.0 billion

$363.7 billion

$549.6 billion

2020

$36.1 billion

$148.8 billion

$392.5 billion

$577.4 billion

While it can be argued that the Telecom Act helped propel those changes, many observers would argue the changes happened largely in spite of the act, and not “because of it.” The mobile business already was competitive (multiple major providers) while the data access business always was unregulated. 


The Telecom Act mostly had a practical effect on fixed network services and voice, a segment that was destined to become a minor part of the total  business.


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