Tuesday, May 1, 2018
5G Will Hit Inflection Point at 10% Adoption
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Advanced Technology Takes Longer Than You Think to Become Mainstream
Advanced technology often does not get adopted as rapidly as the hype would have you believe. In fact, most useful advanced technologies tend not to go mainstream until adoption reaches about 10 percent. That is where the inflection point tends to occur. That essentially represents adoption by innovators and early adopters.
One often sees charts that suggest popular and important technology innovations are adopted quite quickly. That is almost always an exaggeration. The issue is where to start the clock running: at the point of invention or at the point of commercial introduction? Starting from invention, adoption takes quite some time to reach 10 percent adoption, even if it later seems as though it happened faster.
Consider mobile phone use. On a global basis, it took more than 20 years for usage to reach close to 10 percent of people.
That is worth keeping in mind when thinking about, or trying to predict, advanced technology adoption. It usually takes longer than one believes for any important and useful innovation to reach 10-percent adoption.
That is why some might argue 5G will hit an inflection point when about 10 percent of customers in any market have adopted it.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
What Drives Mobile Revenue Growth After M2M or Internet of Things?
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Gigabit Services are Right on Schedule According to Edholm's Law and Nielsen's Law
U.S. home broadband customers buying gigabit tiers of service grew 35 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2022, according to Openvault. At the moment, more than 15 percent of U.S. home broadband accounts use gigabit connections.
Also, more than half of home broadband accounts buy service in the 200 Mbps to 400 Mbps range. That group grew 100 percent year over year.
A little more than a year ago about half of households were buying service in the 100 Mbps to 200 Mbps range, showing that Nielsen’s Law and Edholm’s Law of bandwidth supply continue to operate.
Edholm’s Law states that internet access bandwidth at the top end increases at about the same rate as Moore’s Law suggests computing power will increase. Nielsen's Law essentially is the same as Edholm’s Law, predicting an increase in the headline speed of about 50 percent per year.
Nielsen's Law, like Edholm’s Law, suggests a headline speed of 10 Gbps will be commercially available by about 2025, so the commercial offering of 2-Gbps and 5-Gbps is right on the path to 10 Gbps.
Headline speeds in the 100-Gbps range should be commercial sometime around 2030.
How fast will the headline speed be in most countries by 2050? Terabits per second is the logical conclusion. Though the average or typical consumer does not buy the “fastest possible” tier of service, the steady growth of headline tier speed since the time of dial-up access is quite linear.
Gigabit tier subscribers hit an inflection point last year. The rule of thumb is that any successful and widely-bought consumer technology enters its mass adoption phase when about 10 percent of homes are users. For U.S. gigabit adoption, that happened in 2021.
Some might attribute the Covid pandemic and work from home as driving the change, but adoption rates would have taken off in 2021 in any case, as predicted by the 10-percent-of-homes adoption theory.
It also is easy to predict that 2 Gbps to 4 Gbps is the next evolution, as speeds at the top end continue to increase by 50 percent a year. Ny 2025 we should start seeing the first 10-Gbps services deployed at scale.
Monday, December 4, 2017
How Fast Will Linear Video Decline?
Sunday, December 30, 2018
Is It the "Year of X"?
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Sometimes Market Share Conceals More than it Reveals
AI, Edge Computing, 5G, Big Data Analytics, IoT are All Parts of A Single Transformation
Researchers have been predicting for several decades that computing is going to be pervasive. What we are seeing is the realization of that prediction. Some say "fourth industrial revolution" is coming. Some of us might simply say the era of pervasive computing, as predicted, is arriving.
It is not simply "production" that is going to be affected, affecting industries and economics. Human consumption, lifestyles and behaviors are going to change, as well. This is big, very big.
AI Will Improve Productivity, But That is Not the Biggest Possible Change
Many would note that the internet impact on content media has been profound, boosting social and online media at the expense of linear form...
-
We have all repeatedly seen comparisons of equity value of hyperscale app providers compared to the value of connectivity providers, which s...
-
It really is surprising how often a Pareto distribution--the “80/20 rule--appears in business life, or in life, generally. Basically, the...
-
Who gets to use spectrum, and concerns about interference from other users, now appears to be an issue for Google’s Project Loon in India. ...