2015: Key Trends

In 2015, mobile devices will have bigger screens, more capabilities, and many more users will have more than 100 apps, says Robert Scoble.

Home entertainment systems will increasingly go completely Internet connected and many people will unplug their cable systems.

All media will be streamed and very few users will have downloadable files anymore.

There will be “apps of apps.” In other words, there will be apps that join many apps together.

Social networking will be far more nuanced than it is today.

2015: What Will It Look Like?

Study: 60% of Generation Y Leaning Toward Cutting the Cord

Fully 60 percent of survey respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 are either leaning towards or seriously considering giving up multichannel video services, a survey by Ideas and Solutions has found.

"Cost was the major factor in cord-cutters decisions, with 69 percent of "at-risk" respondents and 61 percent of "leaners" citing it as the primary reason for cutting the cord. See http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/reports-see-generation-y-poverty-193432.

While Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and the like don't offer video services comparable with pay TV, "when faced with a choice of pay TV or a third meal, will some customers choose to make do with a back catalog or off-the-run TV shows and movies?," asked Craig Moffett, Sanford C.
Bernstein analyst. "Of course they will."

"Other ways I can watch entertainment content" was the reason given by 36 percent of "at-risk" respondents and 35 percent for the "leaners."

Nearly 50 percent of those at risk of cutting the cord are Netflix and Hulu users as opposed to 29 percent of "loyalists" and 42 percent of "leaners."

The study of 500 respondents ed 18 to 29 who were current multichannel TV subscribers.

Study: 60% of Generation Y Leaning Toward Cutting the Cord

68% of Marketers Did a Website Redesign in the Last 12 Months

Fully 68 percent of marketers said they redesigned their website in the last 12 months, including 34 percent in the last three months plus another 34 percent from 4 to 12 months ago, according to HubSpot. And, the marketing teams are the ones driving the majority of the website redesign projects. About 55 percent of the website redesigns were initiated by the marketing team.

That might be a bit more than you'd expect, but I have yet to encounter many websites that wasn't essentially "always in beta."

68% of Marketers Did a Website Redesign in the Last 12 Months

YouTube’s "Studio" Strategy

Some liken YouTube to the distributor role multichannel TV networks now hold. Others might liken the role to that of HBO. Either way, YouTube wants to encourage new "native to the Web" content developers that essentially act as studios, fostering creation of video that has more of the appeal of professionally-created video.

For YouTube, it is all about scale, and networks of loosely aligned online video producers scale better than individual shows and viral-video phenoms. In fact, there is a brand new department inside YouTube called Networks that reports to global head of content Dean Gilbert. The purpose of the department is encourage the formation of these outside networks which then use YouTube as their distribution channel.

YouTube’s New Strategy: Create a Network Of Networks

Nortel Patent Portfolio is of Interest Because of 4G

At its peak, in 2000, Nortel had a market value of $350 billion and 86,000 employees. At one time, the stock represented 36 percent of the entire value of the Toronto Stock Exchange. See http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=TCE&Params=M1ARTM0012362. On June 20, 2010, Nortel will no longer exist and the intellectual property it owns will be sold off to the highest bidder.

Of course, Lucent doesn't exist anymore, either. Nor does Scientific-Atlanta or General Instrument, once the two dominant technology companies serving the U.S. cable industry. That tells you something about the fundamental changes in the cable and telecom industries, aside from the value of assets serving those industries.

Google has made a formal bid for the patent portfolio, but many believe Ericsson, Research in Motion and Apple also might bid.

Some say the move is simply a defensive one for Google and Apple because a treasure chest of patents is increasingly seen as a strong defense against intellectual property litigation. According to research firm Fairfield Resources, there are 105 patent families essential to 4G technologies. Nokia holds 57 of these, Ericsson 14. Nortel holds about seven of the families.

It's The End Of The Road For Nortel

Consumer Satisfaction with Subscription TV Falls

Video cord cutting has new drivers, a new study by Edelman suggests. As consumers are accessing content from multiple devices, 68 percent of US and UK consumers think the value they are getting from the entertainment industry has fallen, and only 17 percent of all respondents feel that entertainment sources today provide 'very good' or 'excellent' value.

One might infer there is very high latent dissatisfaction with current offerings, and presumably high receptiveness to alternatives.

At the same time, social media is arguably emerging as a potential contributor to changing end user perceptions of the value of linear video entertainment subscriptions, just as video games and other Web applications earlier established their own places within end user discretionary time pursuits.

According to the 2011 Edelman “Value, Engagement and Trust in the Era of Social Entertainment” survey, 63 percent of UK respondents and 56 percent of US respondents report they are spending more “entertainment” time than a year ago with the Internet, and 40 percent in the UK and 49 percent in the US report spending more time with social media.

Consumer Satisfaction with Subscription TV Falls

Broadband Choices Tend to Be Rational, No Matter What Experts Say

People often buy products, or use those products in ways not originally intended. People also sometimes buy products experts think they should not buy. Consider the matter of broadband access. Virtually all studies suggest that fixed line access “works better” than terrestrial wireless, mobile broadband or satellite broadband, whether the measure is peak throughput or latency.

But all the evidence suggests that people continue to buy mobile broadband and satellite access services. In fact, there is evidence from the United Kingdom that significant numbers of people in the U.K. market buy mobile broadband access in place of fixed access, even though the mobile service has limitations, compared to fixed access.

One has to assume consumers are illogical, or that they mostly are buying products based on overall utility, and that value is not defined by top download speed or even latency.

Broadband Choices Tend to Be Rational, No Matter What Experts Say