Many seemingly believe a Gartner analyst opinion that AI queries will replace search, an obvious enough conclusion for those who use generative AI engines routinely.
Some might even agree that “by 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop 25 percent, with search marketing losing market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents,” according to Alan Antin, Gartner analyst.
Somewhat obviously, such a shift--at some scale--will potentially reshape organic and paid search as venues for marketing spend. But ask yourself: does GenAI fundamentally change the experience of “lean forward” media as compared to “lean back?” Does GenAI turn “lean forward” into “lean back” or vice versa?
It remains true that each successive wave of electronic media has shifted marketer spending, from radio to broadcast TV to cable TV to the internet, search engine marketing, social media advertising and mobile advertising.
As virtual environments such as the metaverse are commercialized, advertising will migrate there as well.
To some extent, these shifts were zero sum games: what one emerging industry gained, the legacy media lost. The issue with generative or any other form of AI is the degree to which hybrid use models will emerge, where AI-assisted ad placement and formats develop as part of all existing venues.
In other words, if AI becomes a core feature of search, social media, gaming, productivity apps, digital content venues and shopping, does GenAI necessarily disrupt, or might it disrupt and shift some amount of activity, but also reinforce existing venues and methods?
In other words, does GenAI used “as an app” develop as a “new medium” or does it mostly remain a feature of existing media?
To be sure, some might believe GenAI could revolutionize media by creating entirely new forms of storytelling, entertainment, and information dissemination.
Others might see that as a remote possibility, with the more likely impact being the reshaping of all existing media.
For example, GenAI might enable new forms of “interactive fiction,” where users experience narratives that adapt to user choices, generating personalized storylines and branching paths in real-time. Keep in mind that this also was expected for legacy media, by analysts considering the rise of interaction itself. Not so much has really changed, save for gaming use cases, though. “Interactive TV” has flopped, for example.
AI-powered characters in games whose behavior is personalized for each user are more likely to happen, as is the application of GenAI to create metaverse and augmented reality experiences. But none of those are examples of media replacement.
In other words, some of us would not agree that “search marketing” is exposed to replacement by use of GenAI.
GenAI is most likely to modify existing media formats, making them more personalized, interactive, and immersive. Based on what happened with interactive TV (or storytelling in general), it seems unlikely that a brand new medium will emerge from GenAI.
To the extent that GenAI becomes a core feature of search, social media and nearly all other experiences and apps, GenAI might not actually be a “threat” to search.
Think of the established categories of “lean forward” experiences such as interacting with a PC or smartphone to the “lean back” experience of video, television, movies or music. GenAI as a feature will be used mostly to create those experiences, but might not change the fundamental “lean forward” experience of work, learning, search or shopping and gaming.
Likewise, the “lean back” nature of entertainment might not be desirable for movies, video, TV or musical experiences and storytelling in general.
The way we consume media can be categorized into two main types: lean forward and lean back.
Lean forward media require active engagement and focus. Examples include:
Playing video games
Browsing the web or using search
Using social media platforms
Reading e-books
Working on a computer
Mental State: Engaged and alert, requiring concentration.
Physical Posture: Can vary, but often involves sitting at a desk or holding a device.
Lean back media requires minimal user effort and is largely a passive experience:
Watching television
Listening to music
Watching movies
Reading a physical book
Attending a concert or play
Mental State: Relaxed and receptive, focused on enjoying the content.
Physical Posture: Often involves sitting or reclining comfortably.
If GenAI were not tightly integrated with all “lean forward” experiences, one might have a better argument for replacement. But that is unlikely to be the case. Likewise, it is not clear that GenAI changes the fundamental “lean back” experience of storytelling in the form of books, TV, video, movies, music, concerts and plays.
Even if one assumes both search and GenAI chatbots are forms of "lean forward" experience, it is very hard to see a permanent stand-alone role, as GenAI already is rapidly being incorporated into all enterprise and consumer software and experiences.
So GenAI becomes a feature of search; not a replacement.
