Mobile TV Jitters

One of the issues mobile TV faces is uncertainty on the part of service providers about aggregate demand, as well as what it is that viewers actually will want. So far, about 66 to 70 percent of consumers say they want other types of custom content. Most of the likely buyers seem to be in the 18 to 35 age group.

There remains some concern about screen size, but some proponents say the concern is misplaced. "It's not a matter of screen size," says Rutton Ruttonsha, NXP SVP. "It's a matter of resolution.

"If you ask 10 people if they’d watch TV on a small screen, they’d say no," says Ruttonsha. But handed an actual high-resolution screen running content, 70 percent then say they would get one. That's not an unusual finding. Users never can judge their appetite for truly new innovations until they actually can use it.

"If you look at the research, when people complain about the issues with mobile television, 76 percent of their complaints involve quality of the video and frame data rates," says Scott Wills, HiWire COO."Only six percent of people complain about screen size."

"The quality of audio is also important," says Ruttonsha. "If the audio is perfect, you can tolerate some misses on the screen." If the audio is great, consumers think the picture is a lot better.

Business models are another area of concern, certainly. Most likely there will be several models, all following existing media practice. Some services will rely on subscription fees plus advertising. Others will take a commercial-free, paid approach.

Of course, one way to look at mobile video is the impact if a single wireless carrier were able to get 10 percent penetration of 200 million handsets. That creates a Comcast-sized video provider.

"One of the reasons it’s taken so long to get going in the United States is that everyone wants an unfair share of the $6.6 billion market they see coming," says Ruttonsha. As we have argued before, disputes among value chain participants are a sure way to delay or crush an incipient market.