Google, TV Spectrum Auction, GooglePhone

I will say in advance that this is merely a speculation, but look at some of the possible events headed our way, along with a rumor gaining more credence. The rumor is that Google has 100 people working on some sort of Google phone. Then there is the matter of what happens in 2009 when the analog TV broadcast system is shut down, and a block of really valuable spectrum, at frequencies that penetrate walls quite nicely, are available for some other use.

Google is among companies that "really doesn't want to be a communications service provider," and there are good reasons for that being its actual position. But things change. What if wireless service providers "pull a Viacom" and play hardball on approving use of the Google phone, much less actively pushing it. What if Google finds it has no really good choices for ramping up its presence in mobile search, presence and location?

There's all that truly wonderful spectrum being vacated by the TV broadcasters. They will fight to keep it, of course. They'll talk about how they can compete with cable and telcos and satellite broadcasters by switching to digital TV in the same spectrum. Just as obviously, other economic interests who would be in a position to gain from rights to use that spectrum will actively oppose any such notion.

But that's precisely where Google's rumored phone, along with its business need to move into mobile search, location and presence, might prompt a change of thinking about being a communications service provider. Of course, it also will consider partnering with others who really like running networks, to reduce its investment profile.

But there's the speculation. There might be times when application providers, despite their desire to avoid being in the networks business, simply can't get their primary mission accomplished without moving in that direction. Google has been dabbling in Wi-Fi access networks and investing heavily in data centers and backbone transmission. It might not be Google's first choice, but all that juicy spectrum is going to affect the thinking of all sorts of players out there, across the communications, media and electronics industries.

In Google's case, the value of owning spectrum and a network, along or with friendly others, is the opportunity to dramatically propel user dwell time with Google Docs & Spreadsheets, search, maps, Gmail and GoogleTalk. And since a mobile phone that doesn't connect to the public network isn't quite so useful, it will do that as well.