Monday, January 7, 2008
Less Focus on Landlines?
Once upon a time, telecom analysts tracked the volume of a carrier's access lines in service, applied a revenue per line metric, and got pretty close to that carrier's annual revenue. No longer.
Given the mutltiple lines of business and products, if anything gets tracked as a more accurate predicator of how a carrier is doing, it is revenue-generating units.
Keep in mind that most tier one "telco" service providers get something on the order of 20 percent of revenue from consumer landlines these days. To be be sure, lines still are important cash flow generators, but no longer are driving growth.
That honor is reserved for mobile and broadband products. Businesses are a different matter, but for consumers, most of whom are equipped with wireless phones in any case, there just are more questions every day about why to keep a wireline circuit.
Some analysts predict that, by 2010 (two more years) wireless-only households should rise to 27 percent, from at least 13 percent in 2007, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project. Other analysts think the figures already are higher, in the 17 percent range.
Labels:
wireless,
wireless substitution
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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