ADP’s jobs data is showing an expected jobs decrease of some 532,000 for the month of May. The data for April from ADP also showed that the job losses were revised down to 545,000.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics data confirms the trend on June 5, 2009, it will add to other data suggesting the recession has ended. Unemployment claims are a lagging economic indicator and a rule of thumb is that recessions later are determined to have ended about 30 days after the peak rate of new claims.
The SurePayroll Hiring Index rose 26 points to 11,430 in May, up from 11,404 at the end of April. The uptick was 0.2 percent from the prior month, suggesting that on average small businesses were hiring.
Year-to-date, the Hiring Index is up 1.4 percent, which puts small business hiring on track to increase 3.3 percent for calendar year 2009.
The results suggest that the U.S. economy is in much better shape these days than many may realize, SurePayroll says. Small businesses often lead economic recovery, so it is good to see that small businesses are continuing to add new employees, the firm notes.
It might seem odd to call the end of a recession when the nation still is losing a half a million jobs a month. But if the trend is confirmed, the economy's direction has changed.
No comments:
Post a Comment