AT&T plans to launch consumer 5G services in the first half of 2020, after a year of selling only to businesses. For mass market customers, AT&T plans to rely on low-band spectrum, using millimeter wave high-band spectrum for capacity reinforcement at large venues.
In the coming weeks, consumer 5G service will launch over low-band spectrum in the Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Providence, R.I., Rochester, N.Y., and San Diego market areas. AT&T plans to follow with Boston, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, New York City, San Francisco, Birmingham, Ala., Bridgeport, Conn., Buffalo, N.Y., Louisville, Ky., and San Jose, Calif.
AT&T initially is focusing on coverage, rather than capacity, so although consumers in the new markets will see 5G speed boosts over 4G levels, they will not see the highest speeds available on the millimeter wave networks.
Still, availability is likely to outstrip subscribership for some time, as past experience suggests fewer than half of existing customers able to upgrade to 5G will do so, about five to six years after launch in any market.
In the 4G era, seven years after launch, about 38 percent of potential customers actually had signed up. Some believe that percentage could be higher in the 5G era, but there also are arguments that adoption could be slower, in part because of the controlled roll-out.
To be sure, low-band 5G should offer some speed advantages over 4G. But not always. Early evidence from some markets using low-band spectrum suggests users might not perceive much of a difference.
In the United Kingdom and Spain, where 5G initially was launched using low-band spectrum, there was only a slight improvement in experienced internet access speeds.
To the extent that consumers become aware of the differences between 5G and 4G, and when low-band spectrum does not offer startling speed advantages, it is not so clear that demand will be robust.
Also, to the extent that good 4G service supports all the apps and use cases most consumers have, it is not so clear what compelling advantage 5G might offer, except indirectly. The actual reason for switching to 5G could come with a change of service plans or purchase of a new high-end device.
AT&T, for example, seems to be offering consumer 5G access when customers buy its higher-cost unlimited usage plans. access to 5G service in the below plans at no extra cost when we roll out 5G in the coming weeks.
The AT&T Unlimited Elite plan provides 30 gigabytes (GB) of mobile hotspot data per line, 100 GB per line of unthrottled data, HBO and HD streaming all for $50 a month per line on four lines after autopay and paperless bill discounts.
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