We might all agree that, at some point, optical fiber will replace copper in telco access networks. What is harder to predict is when that might actually happen in the U.S. market. To be sure, FTTH facilities keep growing. But there are key financial constraints, especially related to financial return.
Looking only at fixed network accounts, U.S. telcos have about 36 million accounts, while competitors (cable providers and independent VoIP providers) have 62 million accounts. If there are roughly 146 million household locations, telco sales of voice reach only about 25 percent of locations. So voice stranded assets are as high as 75 percent.
Statistics for broadband market share are roughly similar, with cable operators having about 70 percent share and telcos about 30 percent share.
That poses a major business model issue for any service providers contemplating upgrades to fiber to home. In principle, FTTH would allow telcos to compete more effectively for internet access accounts. But if copper can support the voice applications, the incremental revenue FTTH can supply will largely be limited to broadband market share gains.
It never is clear that makes financial sense, especially if other access platforms, including fixed wireless can address much of the demand.
Fixed wireless will not appeal to all customers, for reasons of speed. Few fixed wireless networks will routinely support speeds of 600 Mbps or greater, for example. But not all customers will care about that.
If a typical household spends $66 a month for fixed internet and between $40 and $60 a month for mobile data, we can roughly estimate the breakeven point where going all-mobile for internet access costs no more than what already is spent for mobile and fixed internet access, ignoring a bit of hassle factor for doing so.
Assume per-user mobile data costs $50 a month, while per-household fixed data costs $70 a month, and about $28 per user in each household. For a multi-user household of an average 2.5 users, that implies something like $78 per user for an all-mobile approach.
It’s a rough estimate, but that implies usage allowances currently set at about 110 GB, priced at about $80, would be competitive offers for many users, and allow substitution for fixed internet access.
At the moment, it is conceivable that about four percent of U.S. consumers buy gigabit internet access. Perhaps 58 percent of U.S. consumers buy services with speeds between 100 Mbps and 300 Mbps.
That makes 5G fixed wireless a competitor for at least 58 percent of the market, even at lower speeds.
Most likely, the center of gravity of demand for 5G fixed wireless is households In the U.S. market who will not buy speeds above 300 Mbps, or pay much more than $50 a month, at least in the early going. The reason is that that pricing level and downstream bandwidth fits the profile of 5G fixed wireless using mid-band spectrum.
Verizon fixed wireless offers also suggest that same 5G “sweet spot” in the market. In the meantime, there is 4G fixed wireless, which will have to be aimed at a lower-speed portion of the market, albeit at about the same price points as 5G fixed wireless.
Up to this point, Verizon 4G fixed wireless, available in some rural areas, offers speeds between 25 Mbps and 50 Mbps. That might appeal to consumers unable to buy a comparable fixed network service.
Later iterations using millimeter wave service will sometimes be a more-serious competitor to cable operator services operating up to a gigabit per second.
Fixed wireless might be even more important elsewhere in global markets.
All that makes the business case for replacing copper access even more challenging, as the amount of stranded assets increases if fixed wireless gets any significant traction.
One might argue that only FTTH gives telcos a chance to change their market share positions in the consumer broadband market. But even where it is available, FTTH tends to get about 40 percent take rates. So FTTH itself faces a stranded asset issue.
Though operating cost savings will accrue, the potential upside for a telco FTTH upgrade at scale might be 10 percent market share gain in broadband. It is not clear whether that makes as much sense as supplying part of that demand using fixed wireless in the near term, and continuing the gradual replacement of copper as it deteriorates to the point where it simply must be replaced.
One might argue that will take 10 to 20 more years.
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