Some rules of thumb related to connectivity service provider revenue exist simply because use cases are fairly stable over time. In other cases future use cases are not predictable, leading to sometimes wild fluctuations in revenue forecasts.
The global connectivity service provider market, for example, is relatively stable, growing slowly to about $1.2 trillion euro in annual revenue (about $1.4 trillion) in the 2020s, adding about one percent a year. Satellite service revenues were about $123 billion in 2029, or roughly nine percent of fixed service provider revenues.
That does not seem to change much, from decade to decade, so the latest forecast of as much as $25 billion for backhaul implicitly includes attrition of other revenues, such as video entertainment distribution revenues.
Some estimate satellite backhaul revenues will grow to about $25 billion by about 2030, according to Northern Sky Research. That is a dramatic upward revision since about 2018, when satellite backhaul was estimated to reach something closer to $3 billion in annual revenues by 2027.
If that happens, it will be because of satellite backhaul for remote mobile network cell towers, it is safe to say. Earlier forecasts had suggested a maximum of cumulative revenues as high as $39 billion between 2019 and 2029.
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