Propagation issues notwithstanding, millimeter wave frequencies will be vital for mobile operators. The pressure to achieve lower cost per delivered bit will not cease, forcing service providers to continually deploy new solutions for bandwidth with a lower cost per bit profile.
Millimeter wave does that. Eventually, so will teraHertz frequencies.
To be sure, 4G capacity increases will continue for a while. Eventually, though, 4G runs out of gas. Fundamentally, that is why 5G is “necessary.” Beyond all the other new use cases enabled by vaster-lower latency, core network virtualization or 5G-enabled edge computing or internet of things, 5G will supply bandwidth at lower costs than 4G networks.
Cost per bit matters because customer bandwidth demand grows as much as 40 percent a year, while consumer willingness to pay is limited, essentially remaining flat, year over year.
If access providers must supply 40 percent more bandwidth per year, while revenue grows one percent per year, bandwidth efficiency must increase significantly. That is the value of millimeter wave spectrum.
That need for efficiency would be true if access providers owned all the apps used by their customers. In the internet era, access providers own almost none of the apps used by their customers.
So connectivity providers generate relatively small amounts of revenue from applications they own, and at the same time must supply bandwidth for third party apps at prices their customers consider fair.
In that context, since most of the bandwidth consumed is video entertainment, and since video is the most bandwidth-intensive app, prices per bit must be low, and constantly get lower. Video economics are dominated by the fact that users will not pay very much for video entertainment, in relation to the bandwidth consumed to support its use.
For owned apps, revenue per bit for messaging and voice can be as much as two or more orders of magnitude higher than for full-motion video or Internet apps. By some estimates, where voice might earn 35 cents per megabyte, revenue per Internet app might generate a few cents per megabyte.
The cost of consuming a bit is infinitesimally small. Assume an internet access plan costing $50 a month, with a usage allowance of a terabyte. That, in turn, works out to a cost of about $0.000004 per byte. And even that cost will have to keep dropping.
The reason is that consumer propensity to pay is only so high. Essentially, internet service providers must continually supply more bandwidth for about the same prices.
source: GSMA Intelligence
No comments:
Post a Comment