Saturday, November 13, 2021

U.S. FTTH Seems Poised to Accelerate

GlobalData expects the number of U.S. fiber-to-home subscriptions will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.8 percent and reach 28.2 million accounts by year-end 2026.


If total U.S. home broadband accounts number 112 million at that point, as GlobatData predicts, then FTTH would represent about 25 percent of total subscriptions. 

source: S&P Global Intelligence 


As other forecasters estimate, cable operators will gradually lose installed base share to other internet service providers between now and 2026. 


Cable’s share of total US fixed-broadband subscriptions will decline to 67.1 percent  by year-end 2026, down from 68 percent in 2021, Global Data estimates. A different enumeration, including mobile-only households, suggests cable has 65 percent of the installed base, while telcos have 27 percent. 


Total U..S fixed-broadband lines, including fiber, fixed wireless and cable, will increase from 103.1 million in 2021 to 112.3 million by 2026, the firm predicts. 


Unclear at this point is how faster FTTH deployment could change those scenarios. Most observers believe faster FTTH is coming, paced by ISP competitive concerns and more government subsidies for faster home broadband. 


Many of us would now bet that the FTTH deployment rate will exceed 10 percent per year to the end of the decade. Some forecasts already call for 14 percent annual growth, for example. 


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