It is not hard to find critics of 5G who argue the industry over-promised and under-delivered. But the same could be said about 3G and 4G as well: many futuristic use cases did not develop, even if “possible.”
Consider some predicted innovations that eventually are emerging after 20 years from the time they were deemed by some to be possible for 3G networks.
On the other hand, it also can be argued that new apps, use cases and widespread user behaviors did arise during the 3G and 4G eras.
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Some might argue the discrepancies in pace of innovation were almost certainly connected to the mismatch between mobile platform bandwidth and app requirements; the loosely-coupled nature of app development in an internet protocol context; the pace of device innovation and the emergence of revenue models.
One might note the same issue with fixed networks. Some use cases and apps were not possible when relatively assured bandwidth was at 56 kbps; 1 Mbps or 3 Mbps per user. When assured bandwidth grew to 10 Mbps per user or 100 Mbps per user or higher, lots of use cases then were possible.
So some might argue that 3G, 4G and 5G fundamentally are about ensuring higher levels of user bandwidth on a routine basis. Then developers can create with those assumptions in place.
Loosely-coupled innovation also means that, for the most part, it is not the platform suppliers (mobile operators) who create the apps, but third parties. So “what might be possible” only becomes a commercial reality when third party developers decide the addressable market is big enough (one can assume X bandwidth, routinely), devices can support the apps, consumers find value and revenue models are developed.
So even a casual listing of major innovation during the internet era would note that major innovation that affects economics, industries, firms and people largely happens “other places” than in the core computing and connectivity infrastructure, in the same way that the value of products and services using electricity, roads, fresh water, waste disposal, air and sea transport, education, language, numeracy, nutrition or health practices are largely produced by users of those infrastructures, and not by the providers of infrastructure.
By design, app creation is separated from the connectivity, transport and computing functions IP-based apps require. Proponents of 3G, 4G and 5G networks can create new connectivity platforms, but it is third parties who then create most of the apps.
“Over-promising” is a political reality dictated by the need to convince governments to allocate more spectrum (capacity) for the next generation of mobile networks.
So none of the next-generation platforms actually “failed.” New apps, use cases and user behaviors did develop. Developers needed more routine bandwidth, and got it. So 5G eventually will lead to new use cases. But it will take a bit of time, and might not match what proponents have been suggesting could happen.
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