Will IoT Revenues Move the Needle for Telcos or Mobile Operators?

It likely still is too early to know whether explosive revenue growth for mobile and telco connectivity providers will be produced by internet of things use cases. 

A large part of the issue is that even exponential growth of IoT devices is not the same thing as direct connectivity using mobile or fixed networks. Perhaps most of the connections will use wireless networks such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or other alternatives. 

source: IoT Analytics 

So “devices” in use does not necessarily tell us very much about how markets for IoT connectivity provided by mobile operators or telcos could develop. 

source: IoT Analytics 

All that noted, it is possible that IoT revenues earned by mobile and fixed network operators could be significant by 2030, “significant” using a benchmark of at least $1 billion in annual revenue for any single supplier. 

“Connectivity” will continue to be the big revenue contributor, though some amount of system integration or bundled device sales also will be part of the overall revenue stream. 

Year	Connectivity Revenue ($billion)	System Integration Revenue ($billion)	Device Sales Revenue ($billion)
2022	10.8	2.5	1.5
2023	12.0	3.0	1.7
2024	13.5	3.5	2.0
2025	15.0	4.0	2.2
2026	16.5	4.5	2.5
2027	18.0	5.0	2.7
2028	19.5	5.5	3.0
2029	21.0	6.0	3.2
2030	22.5	6.5	3.5

By way of comparison, if global service provider revenue is at least $1.5 trillion, then IoT revenues might represent about one percent of total revenues in 2022. If global revenue grows about two percent per year to 2030, then 2030 global revenue will be $1.76 trillion. 

Then IoT might represent nearly two percent of total revenue. That of course is based on a far-higher expected growth rate for IoT revenues, compared to total industry revenue growth. 

Global Region	2021 Revenue	2022 Revenue	22/21 Growth
Americas	$572	$580	1.4%
Asia/Pacific	$467	$481	3.0%
EMEA	$438	$449	2.4%
Grand Total	$1,478	$1,510	2.2%

Of course, skeptics or realists might note that, by 2030, mobile operator and telco revenue sources will still rely mostly on mobile subscriptions (60 percent of total revenue) and home broadband (20 percent of total revenue), with all voice services driving about 15 percent of revenue and everything else at about five percent.

Revenue Source	Percent of Total Revenue
Consumer mobile revenues	35%
Business mobile revenues	25%
Home broadband	20%
Voice services	15%
Other revenue sources (IoT, cloud, and enterprise services)	5%

The point, of course, is that even if IoT revenues grow as many expect, they are not likely to drive mobile or telco financial performance. Market share or average revenue per account changes are going to have the greatest impact for individual firms, in nearly all cases.