Though I’d agree with the general shape of these adoption curves for the internet, smartphones and artificial intelligence, I would argue they are shown about five years early.
In other words, though AI is likely to provide many more benefits than presently expected over the longer term, it is likely to produce fewer than expected benefits in the near term.
That is not inconsistent with the expected trend of integrating AI into virtually all forms of software, hardware and applications and experiences in the near term. Basically, we are going to throw it against the wall and see what sticks, and what does not.
In many cases, the benefits will be unclear.
That might be true of smartphone adoption in the U.S. market, for example.
It can also be noted for internet adoption as well.
Nor are adoption curves of this type unusual for successful consumer products.
The point is that, as important as AI is, its adoption will not be as swift as many now predict, beyond investments in the infrastructure to enable model creation and inference generation.
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