Tuesday, October 14, 2025

A Scenario for Superhuman AI Development over the Next Decade by AI Futures Project

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean, members of The AI Futures Projectproduce a set of scenarios scenarios for "superhuman AI" over the next decade.

 

Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI researcher. 

Eli Lifland co-founded AI Digest, did AI robustness research, and ranks number one on the RAND Forecasting Initiative all-time leaderboard.

Thomas Larsen founded the Center for AI Policy and did AI safety research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

Romeo Dean is completing a computer science concurrent bachelor’s and master’s degree at Harvard and previously was an AI Policy Fellow at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy.

Scott Alexander is a blogger and writer. 

They believe the superhuman AI impact "will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution."

Their scenario represents "our best guess about what that might look like."


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