At least on mobile devices, ChatGPT remains the share leader, followed by Gemini and then Claude, say analysts at Apptopia. Probably the biggest change is how much share Meta AI has gained, as it now is the fourth-largest model, in terms of mobile device use.
And it appears the model market is approaching a zero-sum game, where one model’s gains must come from another’s loss, as global usage rates continue to slow. That means a model mostly grows by taking share from another provider.
And while the market is not yet “stable,” opportunities to dramatically reshape market structure are dwindling. The rule of three appears to be shaping up.
Capital-intensive industries tend to reach a stable share pattern led by three firms. Just as significantly, the market leader will tend to have twice the share of provider two, which in turn tends to have twice the share of provider three.
And since share tends to correlate with profit margin, it really matters whether a firm is first or second in a market. Often, the market leader has four times the market share of provider number three.
By now, if a model is not in the top three, it is very unlikely to break into the top ranks, history might suggest.
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