What is Yahoo's Strategy?

I admit I'm not sure I describe, with certainty, Yahoo or AOL strategies. To be sure, I'm not sure I could adequately describe Google's fundamental strategy, either. Maybe it doesn't matter whether I understand it. But it typically does matter when a company is a bit fuzzy about telling its own story. You can be the judge of whether this is clear enough.

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Consumption-Based Billing Coming?

Sandvine has released Usage Management 2.5, a software solution that enables fixed-line network operators to implement consumption-based billing models, real-time subscriber communications and multiple service plan tiers. The move is significant as it suggests retail pricing might move in that direction in the future, representing a major shift in retail pricing models.

Historically, consumption-based billing has been problematic for Internet service providers. Time Warner Cable tested and then decided not to implement metered billing earlier in 2009 after widespread consumer resistance to tests in in Rochester, N.Y., Austin and San Antonio, Tex., and Greensboro, N.C.

User behavior also is powerfully affected by billing methods. At one point in time America Online charged users by the minute for their dial-up Internet access usage. When it converted to flat fee billing, usage and subscribers exploded, and AOL became the largest U.S. ISP.

Similar results have been seen when other types of services, such as voice calls, also moved from per-minute to flat rate or "buckets" of usage. Generally, users spend more time talking or using the Internet when they are not metered for that usage.

Mobile voice services have a half-way approach that combines usage limits with much of the perceived freedom users feel when they are not charged strict per-minute charges. Such "buckets" of usage are a likely direction much retail Internet access pricing will move as bandwidth-intensive applications become more important and if new "network neutrality" rules forbid ISPs from shaping overall demand at times of peak congestion.

The alternative to traffic shaping then would shift to other measures such as increasing raw bandwidth or providing incentives for users to limit their consumption at peak hours. The former obviously requires more investment, which then would have to be reflected in higher prices, while the latter would allow for more gradual investments and therefore stable or more slowly increasing prices.

One problem today is that few consumers have any idea how much bandwidth they use. The new Sandvine tool would simultaneously allow users to monitor and understand their own behavior, as well as provide ISPs with better ways to create plans matched to end user behavior.

The Sandvine tool also would help ISPs create quality-sensitive service or personalized plans, assuming Federal Communications Commission or Congressional rules allow them to be offered.

AOL to Cleave Access from Ads

So it looks as though AOL will be split, separating out the Internet access business from the emerging advertising business. The thinking is that it will be easier to do something with each of the assets that isn't so easy right now. Presumably a buyer such as Google might want to pick up AOL's portal for the ad business.

But what can be done with the access assets? Even though AOL lost 3.8 million subscribers in 2007, it still has something on the order of 9.3 million U.S. subscribers.

EarthLink has something of a similar problem. It has a declining customer base but still has 4.2 million access customers.

The issue is what sort of buyer might exist for the Internet access customers AOL and EarthLink now are serving. Most of them are dial-up customers and are likely prospects for broadband upgrades. But the customer base is scattered all over the U.S. market.

So any potential acquirer would want a ubiquitous broadband access footprint (cable modem, wireless or Digital Subscriber Line). Only the leading wireless providers have any real shot at national coverage. Verizon, at&t or Comcast would have immediate coverage issues. Smaller ISPs might want to buy, but can't raise the money.

Does anybody have a rational business plan for rolling up the EarthLink and AOL access bases? Not one we've heard so far, even assuming all the other assets are cleanly separated.

AOL Enhances BlueString, XDrive: More Cloud Computing

AOL announced major enhancements to its leading personal media products with new features in BlueString (www.bluestring.com), a free Website that enables users to easily upload, store, consume, manage and share digital media. Both are examples of a growing move to Web-based apps, storage and social networking.

AOL also says it will release a new beta version of Xdrive (www.xdrive.com), a "personal hard drive on the Internet" allowing consumers to store, access, share and backup their files. Both products are scheduled for general release in the first quarter of 2008.

Also, a series of embedded applications called, "My Memory Gallery," which allow consumers to access and use BlueString on Facebook can be found at http://apps.facebook.com/mymemorygallery.

Generic versions of these applications will soon be available for inclusion on blogs, other Websites and personal homepages.

BlueString will include an enhanced user interface based on Adobe Flex and Adobe AIR enabling simple drag-and-drop of photos, videos, and music across online and offline storage, and eliminating the need for consumers to explicitly upload files before they create with or share their digital media.

BlueString also will offer consumers the ability to access personal photos, videos and music from a variety of third-party media sites and popular photo, video and music-sharing sites.

The new Xdrive beta will feature a simplified and easier-to-use design. Also built on Adobe AIR, this version of Xdrive will integrate the consumer's desktop directly into the online application, giving users the ability to simply drag and drop files directly from the desktop into Xdrive.

The updated version of Xdrive will also be fully integrated into AOL Mail, allowing users to send attachments larger than the current 16 MB limit, creating a seamless email experience for people sending files up to 5 GB.

AOL Shuts Down Netscape

In what might be seen as a successful open source transition, AOL is shutting down its support efforts for the Netscape browser and encouraging Netscape users to switch to Firefox, the Mozilla-powered browser.

AOL acquired Netscape Communications Corporation in 1999. By 2000 AOL had launched the Netscape Communicator Web suite, otherwise known as Mozilla. The Netscape 6 browser, the first Mozilla-based, Netscape-branded browser in 2003 was supported by the independent Mozilla Foundation.

AOL was a major source of support for the Mozilla Foundation and the company continued to develop versions of the Netscape browser based on the work of the foundation. Perhaps AOL has succeeded.

By most estimate Microsoft Explorer holds about 66 percent market share while Mozilla has about 25 percent. Netscape currently has one percent or so share.

Teens IM; Adults Send Email

About 25 percent of surveyed respondents send IMs from their cell phones, including one in three (32 percent) teens, according to the second annual AP-AOL Instant Messaging Trends Survey.

Keyboards make a difference, it seems. So do social networking services and the IM providers themselves, all of which now support IM-over-mobile capabilities. All of the major instant messaging services also let users have their instant messages forwarded directly to their cell phones when they're on-the-go. In addition, IM users are instant messaging from within their social networking profiles.

Workplace use also is becoming commonplace. More than one in four (27 percent) users say they use instant messaging at work. Further, half of at-work IM users say that instant messaging makes them more productive at work, a 25 percent increase over last year.

More than half (55 percent) of teen IM users have used instant messaging to get help with their homework. This is a 17 percent increase over last year. Meanwhile, 22 percent of teens say they have sent an IM to ask for or accept a date.

Forty-three percent of teen IM users say they have used instant messaging to say something they would not say to someone in person. Teenage girls are more likely than boys to do so. Nearly half of teenage girls surveyed have used instant messaging to say something they would not say in person, compared with just over a third of teenage boys.

Teens today are more likely to upload photos (42 percent in 2007 vs. 34 percent in 2006) while instant messaging. They are less likely to conduct online research for school (57 percent vs. 63 percent) or update their blog or social profile (33 percent vs. 42 percent) while sending IMs.

Nearly three in four teens (70 percent) and one in four adults (24 percent) send more instant messages than emails.

IM users tend to engage in multiple online activities while sending instant messages. Checking email is the most popular activity among eight in ten adult and teen IM users. After email, adult IM users most often conduct online searches (49 percent), while teens say they like to research homework assignments online (57 percent).

Nearly four in five (79 percent) at-work IM users say they have used instant messaging in the office to take care of personal matters. One in five (19 percent) IM users say they send more instant messages than emails to their co-workers and colleagues.

Mobile IM Use Increasing

According to the second annual AP-AOL Instant Messaging Trends Survey, 25 percent of respondents send instant messages from their mobile phones, including 32 percent teens.

In addition, IM users are instant messaging from within their social networking profiles.

More than 27 percent of users say they use instant messaging at work. Further, half of at-work IM users say that instant messaging makes them more productive at work, a 25 percent increase over last year.

More than half (55 percent) of teen IM users have used instant messaging to get help with their homework. This is a 17 percent increase over last year. Meanwhile, 22 percent of teens say they have sent an IM to ask for or accept a date.

Forty-three percent of teen IM users say they have used instant messaging to say something they would not say to someone in person. Teenage girls are more likely than boys to do so. Nearly half of teenage girls surveyed have used instant messaging to say something they would not say in person, compared with just over a third of teenage boys.

Nearly three in four teens (70 percent) and one in four adults (24 percent) send more instant messages than emails.

Multi-tasking remains very popular, as IM users tend to engage in multiple online activities while sending instant messages. Checking email is the most popular activity among eight in ten adult and teen IM users. After email, adult IM users most often conduct online searches (49 percent), while teens say they like to research homework assignments online (57 percent).

Nearly four in five (79 percent) at-work IM users say they have used instant messaging in the office to take care of personal matters. One in five (19 percent) IM users say they send more instant messages than emails to their co-workers and colleagues.

AOL Mobile Site Created

AOL has developed a new mobile version of its online services, in line with the trend to optimize Web experiences for mobile access. Though the trend has been underway in any case, it might be fair to say that the sudden success of the Apple iPod has alerted the whole industry to the existence of a new mobile segment: high-end Web-centric users for whom Web applications and entertainment as as important as voice and text messaging.

And since over time, all phones are expected to become smart phones or feature phones, mobile-optimized Web sites are a must.

The upgrades include more mobile-friendly versions of AOL Search, Mail, MapQuest, and AOL Instant Messenger, among other features. The new mobile search, for instance, will offer results that are more tailored to users on the go, such as driving directions and click-to-call options linked to services like MapQuest and Moviefone.

A mobilized myAOL service will enable users to personalize the AOL mobile site by selecting news headlines, pictures, and RSS feeds. Separately, AOL plans to launch AOL MyMobile, a new application similar to Yahoo's Go service, by year's end.

It will allow Mobile Windows users to download a range of AOL services such as Mail, Cityguide and Search, and will remember recent requests to help speed searches on the fly.

A new mobile widget for GPS-enabled phones will also allow AIM users to locate each other, marking a step by AOL into the mobile social networking area.

As part of the new mobile push, AOL is also formally launching Winamp Remote, letting people access and listen to music stored on their computers from on their cell phones.

iPhone has changed some things and accelerated some things. Much faster movement towards mobile-optimized Web experiences is among those impacts.

BT Gets Jabber

Jabber, Inc. BT Group has selected the Jabber Extensible Communications Platform (Jabber XCP™) to provide instant messaging for BT's 21st Century Network (21CN) program. Jabber will license software to BT for consumer, government, and enterprise users worldwide. In addition, the engagement between BT and Jabber includes consulting and development services which will fully integrate the Jabber XCP platform into BT’s common capabilities network.

Integrating Jabber XCP will allow BT to extend messaging across applications and services, providing BT customers with a centralized view of message routing, one-to-one IM, group chat, offline messages, message history, file transfer, and interoperability with other messaging systems such as Yahoo!, MSN, Google, and AOL.

The 21CN program, BT Group’s ongoing network transformation project, will replace the United Kingdom’s incumbent Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) with an Internet Protocol (IP) system while facilitating additional services such as on-demand interactive television, mobile television, and mobile radio.

ISP Subscriber Growth Favors Tier One Providers

Not that anybody should be surprised by the latest ISP subscriber figures, but large tier one telco and cable providers are racking up more market share while independent mass market providers are losing share. The one countervailing trend is that providers focused on the small and mid-sized business, such as Covad, continue to grow.

For those of you familiar with the SME space, it is, always has been and always will be a fertile segment for independent providers of all sorts. The latest ISP figures only confirm that observation, again.

Discovering Business Models

The problem with discovering business models is that what works for some does not work for all. Back in 1998 and 1999 the stock answer provided by just about any competitive local exchange carrier executive essentially was that the firm in question would get "one percent of a $250 billion market."

These days people ask how Facebook, messaging, collaboration, video or other portals will make any money. The most popular answer is some variant of the old CLEC standby. U.S. advertising currently is about a $153 billion a year business. Portal X will get one percent of that.

Look, it clearly works for four companies: Google, AOL, Yahoo! and MSN. The "four horsemen" get about 60 percent of all Internet advertising. It isn't going to work for most application, communications or portal providers, just as it never worked for most CLECs.

The biggest two "CLECs"--the former AT&T and WorldCom/MCI--threw in the towel in defeat. And those two had more than 40 percent of all "CLEC" revenues between them.

So people assume that fast-growing and useful sites such as Facebook will find some way to make money besides traditional advertising. And there is precedent for such discovery.

Google was equally clueless about its business model, but managed to discover one.
So just because a company has no idea how it will make money, doesn't mean it will not discover a means.

On the other hand, that doesn't mean it ALWAYS will find the answer. And though I'd have to say I am fairly confident Facebook will discover a model, as Google did, that doesn't mean thousands of other sites will be so lucky. Thousands of sites obviously cannot use the Internet advertising model, even if it is fast growing, because most fo the rewards will go a relative handful of companies.

Business IM Use at 26 Percent

AOL’s third survey of instant messaging use shows IM in the workplace has grown. About 26 percent of surveyed businesspeople say they use IM at work.

At-work IM users now send IMs to communicate with colleagues (58 percent), to get answers and make business decisions (49 percent) and even to interact with clients or customers (28 percent). Twelve percent have used IM at work to avoid a difficult in-person conversation, AOL says.

Business and at-work users say they use IM because it “enables me to keep up with family and friends (47 percent). IM also “helps me to stay in touch with people I normally wouldn't be in regular contact with (43 percent).

About 38 percent say IM “helps me to get more done each business day.” About a quarter say IM is useful because it “enables me to check in on my children, providing peace of mind.”

For working moms and dads, IM’s impact is higher than the national average. In fact, 83 percent say that their day-to-day business lives have benefited from instant messaging, AOL says.

Some 11 percent say IM enhances productivity enough that they “leave the office earlier.”

Among those who use instant messaging for business purposes, 13 percent say they have their IM screen name printed on their business card, while six percent say they write it on the business cards they exchange. About 26 percent of polled New Yorkers have their IM screen names printed on their business cards.