Broadband costs: Fiber Helps!

Fiber to the home helps, obviously. In the U.S. market, it helps to be a Verizon customer where FiOS is deployed, or to live within the SureWest Communications footprint. Make a note, though: this is actually a megabit per second (Mbps) metric, not a Mbyte metric. Apparently we are dealing with a technologically challenged journalist. The original data from the foundation make clear that we are talking about Mbps, not Mbytes.

Carrier Fiber Plans Accelerating?

Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, hasn't come to terms with BT about ways to speed up fiber to customer investments in the U.K. market. Up to this point BT has objected to earlier proposals that would have applied relatively robust wholesale requirements to new optical access plant. Perhaps there is new hope for some compromise that reassures investors, speeds up fiber deployment and yet offers some hope of a return.

Around the world, fiber to customer deployments seem poised to accelerate, but both competitive providers such as Illiad in France and Verizon in the United States have been punished by the financial community for daring to proceed with such deployments, which are costly, no doubt. U.S. cable companies have the same problem. Every time there is a hint that capital spending plans might intensify, equity values get hit. Comcast appears to be under that cloud as well at the moment.

Irrespective of the competitive elements of such decisions--obviously the providers making the investments want to keep the rewards, if they can be had--these networks can only be built by private capital. And private capital keeps making clear concern about the payback, whether those investments are made by cable companies, incumbent telcos or competitive providers.

At this point it is a simple fact that the investment framework has to reassure the capital markets. Yes, competition is desirable. But that has to be balanced against capital markets that actually loathe competition. Let's hope Ofcom and BT can thread this needle.

at&t to Launch VoIP Bundled with fiber

By the end of the year, at&t U-verse customers will be able to buy voice services running over the fiber-to-neighborhood service, instead of running a separate circuit-switched voice network to customer locations. The move signals that at&t is completely comfortable with the ruggedness and dependability of its VoIP offering, and is moving towards IP-based voice that can be interwoven with other services at&t plans to offer.

The move also is an early harbinger of a time when VoIP widely will be used as a standard replacement for landline voice, much as cable companies now use VoIP to deliver "digital voice" services that are feature equivalent with plain old telephone service but use IP technology.

The new VoIP offerng also will not be based on the CallVantage platform, because CallVantage "doesn't scale," at&t executives say.

The new VoIP product will be available in markets where at&t delivers U-verse TV.
at&t says its upgraded network will reach about eight million homes by the end of this year. The company intends to pass 18 million homes by the end of 2008.

Apparently at&t plans to move slowly offering VoIP services that run over Digital Subscriber Line, though.

From at&t's standpoint, that makes sense. Having watched IP, flat rate plans, competition, mobility, family plans and other forces wipe out much of the profit in long distance, VoIP stands poised to attack voice-based local access revenues as well. at&t will move, when it has to. But it is hard to fault them for not wanting to hasten the revenue decline from that product line.

Verizon FiOS Getting Ready to Blow Down Doors

Readers of ComputerWorld might not be "typical" U.S. consumers. Neither might members of the ChangeWave Alliance, as both will skew much more heavily into the technological savvy end of the customer spectrum. But there's growing evidence that at least for these lead elements of the technology-buying and influencing market, Verizon's FiOS is poised to take significant share.

Not that "satisfaction" is any guarantee of loyalty, but FiOS customers seem significantly happier than Comcast cable modem customers, for example. And on the "I'm going to switch" front, limited FiOS availability, like limited iPhone stock, has depressed sales. That will change, if ChangeWave member sentiments are any indication.

In fact, of users who say they are going to change video providers, the percentage of users who say they intend to switch to FiOS or another fiber-to-customer service is 300 percent higher than the percentage of users that say they will switch to cable for TV service.

So Verizon and at&t simply have to get their networks in front of more customers.

Verizon FiOS Blows Away Competition

A recent survey of ComputerWorld readers has Verizon's FiOS service topping the satisfaction rankings in virtually every measured category. Overall, 96 percent of FiOS customers rated the service "excellent" or "good." And though cable modem services scored better than Digital Subscriber Line overall, Comcast fared poorly as a provider. All that noted, and for all the grumbling one tends to see on blogs and discussion boards, about three quarters of the respondents think their services are "excellent" or "good." Upload speed remains the single biggest gripe.

FiOS Takes Share from Satellite, Overbuilders and Cable

An examination of wireline video subscriber patterns in 34 Massachusetts cities and towns after the introduction of Verizon Inc.’s FiOS TV reveals three key findings, according to analysts at OneTrak, a firm loaded with cable TV trade journalists I used to work with.

FiOS tends to capture at least 10 percent penetration by taking cable customers (mostly Comcast in the study area). If there is an overbuilder in the market, the hit can be larger than that (RCN being the case in point). And as many as 40 percent of FiOS TV subscribers could well be coming from DBS.

In most markets there will not be an overbuilder with any significant market share, so FiOS gains should easily top 10 percent.

Video Behavior Changes After FTTH

This will not come as any great surprise, but the three top applications customers use when they get fiber to the home service are watching full-length video, online gaming and video on demand. If one looks at the top four activities, video represents three of four applications. Of the top seven apps, five are video apps. So suggests a survey conducted by the Fiber to the Home Council.