Prepaid Market is Segmenting

Long viewed as a niche for credit-challenged or immigrant workers, the prepaid space is developing some new niches.

While some consumers will remain satisfied with low-end, low-cost prepaid services, many more will require higher end voice, messaging and data services, and access to more-advanced devices. That is likely going to lead to some pressure on postpaid plan penetration, as millions of users downgrade to prepaid plans.

Yankee Group :: Research Report

Prepaid Market Cracks With Verizon Smartphone Offerings

Prepaid customers traditionally have had to live with a selection of devices that intentionally did not include the top devices sold in the postpaid market. But that has taken a huge change with Verizon's new willingness to sell even its leading devices on a prepaid basis.

At least at Verizon, the difference between prepaid and postpaid offerings is based more on payment options and subsidized or full price phones than anything else. That is a big change, indeed.

Verizon Wireless also has launched a new "3G Prepaid" data package that lets customers access unlimited data on select 3G smartphones and multimedia phones for $30 monthly access.

Multimedia phone customers also have the option of selecting a new $10 monthly data package for 25 MB per month ($.20/MB overage). These new prepaid data packages are available at Verizon Wireless stores already, and will be available online at www.verizonwireless.com beginning Sept. 28, 2010.

Supported smartphone devices include:

BlackBerry Curve 8330
BlackBerry Curve 8530
BlackBerry Storm 9530
BlackBerry Storm2 9550
BlackBerry Tour 9630
BlackBerry Bold 9650

Palm Pre Plus
Palm Pixi Plus

DROID by Motorola
Motorola DEVOUR
DROID X by Motorola
DROID 2 by Motorola
DROID Eris by HTC
DROID Incredible by HTC
LG Ally

3G Multimedia phones available include:

LG enV TOUCH
LG enV 3
LG Chocolate TOUCH
LG VX8360
Samsung Alias 2
Samsung Renown
Nokia Twist
Casio EXILIM

Verizon Wireless Offers Top Smartphones with Prepaid Plans

Verizon Wireless is significantly sweetening the deal for its prepaid customers with a new "3G Prepaid" data package that lets customers access unlimited data on select 3G smartphones and multimedia phones for $30 monthly access.

Multimedia phone customers also have the option of selecting a new $10 monthly data package for 25 MB per month ($.20/MB overage). These new prepaid data packages are available at Verizon Wireless stores already, and will be available online at www.verizonwireless.com beginning Sept. 28, 2010.

Supported smartphone devices include:

BlackBerry Curve 8330
BlackBerry Curve 8530
BlackBerry Storm 9530
BlackBerry Storm2 9550
BlackBerry Tour 9630
BlackBerry Bold 9650

Palm Pre Plus
Palm Pixi Plus

DROID by Motorola
Motorola DEVOUR
DROID X by Motorola
DROID 2 by Motorola
DROID Eris by HTC
DROID Incredible by HTC
LG Ally

3G Multimedia phones available include:

LG enV TOUCH
LG enV 3
LG Chocolate TOUCH
LG VX8360
Samsung Alias 2
Samsung Renown
Nokia Twist
Casio EXILIM

The big issue is likely to be consumer shock at the cost of unsubsidized devices, though.

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Shift to Prepaid Wireless Continues

I doubt this is news to anybody who follows subscriber trends in wireless, but prepaid accounts continue to grow, accelerating through all of 2009 and 2010 so far.

Up to a point that might be considered a good thing for  service providers who have made a business of prepaid, especially some of the regional providers.

But it never is too helpful when the "big guys," or at least some of them, decide they have to play in the prepaid segment, as Sprint now is doing.


The new "Common Cents" service is the fourth prepaid brand Sprint supports, after Boost Mobile, Virgin Mobile and Assurance Wireless, which is a government-subsidized cell phone program for people who are under or close to the poverty line.

Under the new plan, customers will pay seven cents per minute for phone calls and they will be charge seven cents per text message.

Wal-Mart is planning to sell phones, costing $20 to $70, in more than 700 stores.

Sprint will also give customers a break by rounding down on the minutes used in order to aattract more subscribers. Sprint says that "with minutes that round down after the first minute, not up, consumers get more minutes for their money."

In the first quarter of 2010, Sprint lost 578,000 postpaid subscribers. But it gained 348,000 prepaid customers.

Sprint also positions each of the prepaid brands in different segments. While Common Cents is geared toward value customers, who aren't looking for much beyond basic cell phone and texting service, Virgin Mobile's and Boost Mobile's services offer more data-centric plans that target the youth market.

TheVirgin Mobile and Boost brands have been offering flat-rate pricing for all-you-can-eat plans for $50 a month. Soon Virgin Mobile will also offer a $25 plan that comes with unlimited texting, e-mail, and Web surfing, plus 300 minutes a month of voice service. For $40 a month, customers can get 1,200 voice minutes.

Business Prepaid Wireless Heats Up

Business customers have not been big users of prepaid mobile services. But that could be changing. Compass Intelligence expects growth of about 10 percent over each of the next three years.

Estimated to represent approximately five million of the 57 million prepaid subscribers by the end of 2010, prepaid business users make up a small part of the prepaid market at the moment, and is a recent trend.

About 60 percent of of decision-makers offering employees prepaid devices say they have done so far one year or more,” says Kneko Burney, Chief Strategist of Compass Intelligence.

One would be tempted to suggest that a new frugality caused by the recession is the reason business prepaid is picking up, and that likely is part of the explanation. But one might also suggest that more businesses are trying to control fast-growing mobile expenses. Shifting to prepaid is one way to do so.

“The real finding here is that the 'corporate liable' segment of the overall wireless market (representing roughly 14 percent of all wireless subscribers) is expected to change as a result this increase in business prepaid," ays Burney. Contracts will need to become more flexible and carriers will be wise to find a way to accommodate business needs for “prepaid-like” options in contracts, particularly for mobile broadband and possibly even push-to-talk.”

Decision-makers are most likely to provide prepaid devices to “sales people,” executives, business owners, IT or telecom staffs.

For many, the primary reason that prepaid is attractive is because it is “less of a hassle compared to a monthly contract.”

Prepaid mobile broadband also is getting traction. Many respondents to the Compass Intelligence survey say they will be buying nearly as many prepaid mobile broadband devices as prepaid mobile phones in 2010.

T-Mobile USA Launches Unlimited Prepaid Offer

Given the relative strength of prepaid wireless, and a renewed spate of competition in the segment, it might not be too surprising that T-Mobile USA has launched a new unlimited mobile plan available to customers who do not like contracts.

What might have been disruptive is an extension of such plans to all postpaid customers as well, a move that might have sparked yet another round of price cuts in the postpaid business. But it was a move T-Mobile USA chose not to take.

The new plan offers unlimited talk, text and Web surfing for $79.99 a month to customers who do not want to sign up for a long-term contract, which typically lasts two years.

It will also offer a $50 per month unlimited service for non-contract customers that only want access to voice calls, not text messaging or Web access.

By some measures, the new deal represents a 20 percent discount on T-Mobile's standard unlimited monthly fee for contract customers.

Nobody knows what might have happened had T-Mobile USA launched a $50 per month unlimited voice and data service plan for all customers, but an immediate price war is one likely outcome.

As matters stand, that is unlikely to happen. On its third quarter earnings call, Verizon said Verizon Wireless was unlikely to respond to T-Mobile USA's new offer with a similar one of its own.

That is unsurprising given Verizon's general stance on prepaid, which is that it remains a niche tough to square with Verizon's historic focus on higher-end postpaid customers.

Prepaid accounted for 80 percent of U.S. subscriber growth in the first quarter of 2009, though growth has moderated since then.

Sprint subsidiary Boost Mobile launched a $50 monthly plan in January 2009 and has been matched by the other leading prepaid providers.

Wal-Mart Straight Talk a Tipping Point?

In March of 2009, the Opinion Research Center estimated that 8.7b million Americans already had discontinued their mobile service because of the recession, and suggested that as many as 60 million mobile users would seek ways to reduce spending.

One way many consumers seem to have done so is to substitute prepaid service for contract plans. That would account for robust subscriber growth for virtually all providers of prepaid service since then.

But Wal-Mart's new “Straight Talk” prepaid service, offered at the $30 and $45 levels, could end up being the “tipping point for millions of consumers who are already considering moving away from expensive contract-based cell phone service,” says Allen Hepner, New Millennium Research executive director.

Hepner believes that the $30 plan (with 1,000 minutes, 1,000 texts per month, mobile Web access and no-extra cost 411 calls, with no contract and no penalties) and the $45 plan (unlimited calling, texting, mobile Web and 411) that Wal-Mart now offers under the “Straight Talk” brand are going to get serious attention.

With average monthly contract plans reported to be about $81, the more than 140 million U.S. contract-based wireless customers who use less than 550 minutes a month may now have even more reason to consider switching to a less expensive cell phone option, particularly in a changing environment in which plans for 1,000 minutes are available through Wal-Mart for $30 per month, Hepner argues.

In March 2009, ORC estimated that there were 29 million prepaid accounts in service, representing about 16 percent of the total base of mobile users.

“We see that 8,740,000 Americans, that is 19 percent of consumers without a cell phone, report that they already have ‘discontinued cell phone service in the last six months because of actual job loss, fear of job loss, the recession, or any other related financial concerns," said Graham Hueber, Opinion Research Center senior researcher.

At the same time, ORC suggested that 39 percent of postpaid mobile customers--60.3 million consumers--were likely to cut back on their cell phones to save money, the Opinion Research Corporation estimated.

Wal-Mart Gets into the Mobile Phone Business

Competition in the voice business is about to get more heated, as Wal-Mart now says it will be a  retailer of mobile phone service, partnering with American Movil to sell low-cost service pre-paid service under the "Straight Talk" brand. The company is offering unlimited voice and text minutes for $45 a month, or 1,000 minutes and 1,000 text messages for $30 a month.

AT&T just introduced a new $60 a month pre-paid service under its "GoPhone" brand with unlimited U.S. voice calls and unlimited text messaging to the U.S., Mexico, Canada and more than 100 other countries.

The plan includes unlimited IM picture and video messages. The service does not require a contract, and offers a range of full keyboard devices.

And AT&T recently reevaluated its position on use of Skype from its Apple iPhones, using the mobile network, not just Wi-Fi.

All the moves show the intensified competition in the prepaid wireless segment, one of the few areas of untapped growth for mobile providers.

Still, the new activity around voice pricing only accentuates the on-going trend, which is that voice, though the historic driver of revenue for mobile and fixed providers, will not be the driver in the future.

As JP Morgan analyst Mike McCormack notes, voice accounts for $50-$60 of the $95 in monthly revenue generated by the typical iPhone user. If the average user were to drop AT&T’s unlimited voice plan ($99.99 a month) in favor of its cheapest ($39.99 a month), the carrier could lose upward of 20 percent to 33 percent of its voice revenue, at least from iPhone users.

In the past, industry executives accurately could say they were in the telephone or voice business. That won't work in the future, when they primarily will be in the communications business, with significant operations in the content and application businesses as well.

Which User Segments are Most Likely to Switch to Prepaid?

Prepaid wireless has been on a tear of late, growing to 55 million U.S. users and about 17 percent of all U.S. wireless accounts in service. And though prepaid traditionally has been centered on "banking challenged," "low income" or "youth" market segments, that is starting to change as consumers from a wider range of segments seem to be opting for

Often thought of as a "consumer" option, one also has to wonder whether at least some business users might consider switching to prepaid, for at least some employee segments.

That, at least, is what Compass Intelligence thinks could be happening at smaller firms, for example. A recent change that could be driving such interest are new "unlimited" talk and texting plans from firms such as AT&T.

In a recent survey, Compass Intelligence found that a high percentage of respondents indicate plans to give new prepaid devices to one or more employees.

Another segment Compass Intelligence found was interested in prepaid plans are "larger families."  The larger the family, the more mobiles they currently use and the more likely they will replace postpaid wireless devices with prepaid options, Compass Intelligence says.

Users with multiple mobile devices also are more likely to indicate they plan to replace a postpaid wireless account with a prepaid option as compared to other segments.

About 11 percent of the respondents with three or more mobiles are willing to replace one or more of their postpaid mobiles with prepaid, while only three percent of the respondents with only one mobile device indicated plans to do so.

When adding a new device, 22 percent of respondents indicate they will add prepaid mobile.

The apparent relationship between prepaid demand and family size and number of devices is likely the result of U.S. consumers and businesses seeing wireless devices as "nice-to-have" items that are useful for more members of families and employees, along with the ability to limit financial exposure.

One of the advantages of prepaid service is that it can be terminated easily, allowing parents and business managers to quickly cut back on such service if necessary.

AT&T Launches New $60 Unlimited Prepay Plan

 AT&T has launched a new $60-a-month unlimited talk and text plan. AT&T's "Unlimited Talk and Text" plan for GoPhone is available October 12, 2009 and offers unlimited nationwide calling and unlimited texting to anyone in the United States, plus texting to Mexico, Canada and more than 100 other countries worldwide, for an additional fee.

“We recognize GoPhone customers have a need for unlimited calling or texting without the commitment of an annual contract,” says Judy Cavalieri, vice president of Prepaid Products for AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets.

The prepaid offer comes without contract, and can be paid for completely "as you go" or as a monthly rate plan, without a contract, credit check or deposit.

The offer is evidence of a new level of competiton in the wireless prepaid business, which now is starting to compete more directly with postpaid offers. Handset limitations are emerging as the key difference between postpaid and prepaid offers, to an extent, not usage charges or even form of payment.

Cricket Ratchets Up Prepaid Offers, Unlimited Web Now Included

Cricket Communications, owned by Leap Wireless International, has ratcheted up its own offers in the budding value and price wars in theprepaid wireless business.

Cricket’s $40 monthly plan, which already includes unlimited voice, long distance, domestic and international text and picture messaging, and nationwide coverage, now will include unlimited Web, unlimited 411 and unlimited service to more than 4,600 cities and towns across the US.

In addition, Cricket’s $45 monthly plan in these markets will now include the additional features of unlimited email, unlimited data backup and 30 roaming minutes per month. The $55 plan mirrors the $45 plan but also contains 200 roaming minutes per month.

The new plans take effect August 4, 2009, in select Cricket markets that cover approximately 72.3 million potential customers.

"The new features we have included in our service plans significantly increase the value we deliver to our customers," says Al Moschner, Cricket COO.

And that appears to be the story: the prepaid market is in a new stage of development where the "standard offer" is changing quite radically.

Sprint Narrows Losses; Kindle and Prepaid Help

Sprint Nextel's 182,000 total net subscribers represents a sequential improvement of over one million subscribers and the best sequential net change in total subscribers in Sprint Nextel history, says Hesse.

Sprint Nextel appears to be having success adding prepaid customers, a trend noticeable at some other wireless firms, as well as with its wholesale business, driven in part by Amazon Kindle subscriptions.

Sprint Nextel had 49.1 million customers at the end of the quarter, compared to 49.3 million at the end of 2008. This includes 35.4 million post-paid subscribers (25.3 million on CDMA, 8.9 million on iDEN, and 1.2 million Power Source users who utilize both networks), 4.3 million prepaid subscribers (3.5 million on iDEN and 800,000 on CDMA) and 9.4 million wholesale and affiliate subscribers.

In the first quarter, total wireless customers declined by approximately 182,000, including net losses of 1.25 million post-paid customers – comprising 531,000 CDMA and 719,000 iDEN customers (including a net 94,000 customers who transferred from the iDEN network to the CDMA network).

The company also lost 90,000 prepaid CDMA customers. The company gained a net 764,000 prepaid iDEN customers and 394,000 wholesale and affiliate subscribers. The company achieved total subscriber growth on the iDEN network.

Wireless service revenues for the quarter of $6.4 billion declined 10 percent  year-over-year and two percent quarter over quarter.

Wireless post-paid ARPU in the quarter was stable sequentially and year-over-year at $56, primarily due to growth in fixed-rate bundled plans such as "Simply Everything," offset by seasonal declines in usage.

Data revenues contributed greater than $15 to overall post-paid ARPU in the first quarter, led by growth in CDMA data ARPU. CDMA data ARPU inow represents more than 31 percent of total CDMA ARPU.

Prepaid ARPU in the quarter was approximately $31 compared to $29 in the year-ago period and $30 in the fourth quarter of 2008. The year-over-year and sequential increases reflect a growing contribution from prepaid subscribers on unlimited plans.

Will Consumers Follow Through on Wireless Plans?

Some quarters are more important than others. The first quarter of 2009, for example, will provide an important test of whether consumers are "putting their money where their mouths are." The reason? Some surveys have consumers telling researchers they will cut back or drop important communication services.

A recent survey by Pew Research Center, for example, has some 20 percent of respondents reporting they’ve gone with a less expensive cell phone plan, or canceled service altogether. About 22 percent adults say they are saving money on their cell phone bills.

Young adults, the group that is the most likely to use mobiles, are the most likely to have taken this step: 30 percent of respondents under the age of 30 and 20 percent of other adults say they have changed cell plans or dropped service because of the recession.

Three-in-ten adults with family incomes below $30,000 say they have changed or cut their mobile service, and 13 percent of those making $100,000 or more say they have done so as well.

If those respondents really are acting as they say they will, we might expect a bit of an explosion as mobile providers report first-quarter results. To be sure, over the last couple of quarters there has been a clear upsurge in use of pre-paid mobile services, generally interpreted as a cost-saving measure.

Still, AT&T, the first mobile provider to report first-quarter results, had a wildly successful first quarter for post-paid plans. There are of course some other logical developments we might be watching for. Among the obvious economy measures are switching from post-paid to pre-paid plans, and that clearly is happening.

On the other hand, we will be watching for any signs of actual, industry-wide shrinkage of wireless accounts. A simple switch to pre-paid generally reduces average revenue per user, while maintaining subscriber numbers. That likely means some shift of market share among wireless providers, even if it does not automatically suggest overall subscriptions will dip.

Based solely on the AT&T results, respondents are not necessarily behaving as they say they will.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1199/more-items-seen-as-luxury-not-necessity

Virgin Mobile Wants Greater Share of Prepaid Mobile Market

Presumably first quarter financial results will show continued growth in uptake of prepaid wireless plans in the U.S. mobile market. Virgin Mobile USA

hopes to capitalize on the trend, as it has cut its unlimited calling plan from $80 to $50 a month.

Two of Virgin's other monthly calling plans also get a price cut. The 300-anytime minute plan was cut to $30 from $35. The 400 anytime minutes plan was reduced from $50 to $40.

Text-only plans also are offered: the new Texter's Delight plan costs $15 a month for 1000 messagesa month. An unlimited texting plan is available for $20. Those plans include photo, instant messaging and video messages as well as SMS. Voice calls cost 10 cents per minute.

Virgin has also introduced a Pink Slip Protection (PSP) program. To be eligible for PSP, customers must be a Virgin Mobile USA customer for two consecutive months prior to losing a job, and become eligible for state unemployment benefits within 12 months. Virgin Mobile will cover the costs of a plan including taxes and surcharges for up to three months.

More Signs of Prepaid Wireless Surge

MetroPCS added more than 1.5 milion gross customers in the first quarter of 2009, up 59 percent over the same point a year ago, and 684,000 customers after accounting for quarterly churn of five percent.

The growth suggests one thing: more wireless users are keeping their mobile service, but downgrading to prepaid plans. We can make a couple of observations: despite fears, wireless is now so embedded in user lives that it cannot be dispensed with.

On the other hand, there are ways to satisfy that need at lower cost, and consumers are taking that option.

New Verizon Wireless Prepay Plans

Verizon Wireless today announced new INpulse prepay plans essentially customized for various lighter use or episodic use modes.The new plans, INpulse Core, INpulse Plus and INpulse Power, charge customers a daily access fee only on the days of use and include unlimited calling to Verizon Wireless customers nationwide.

INpulse Core offers daily access at 99 cents and calls at 10 cents a minute. Text messages are charged at 10 cents for each message. INpulse Plus costs $1.99 a day, on the days a user wants to talk or text, with unlimited night minutes and voice calling at five cents a minute and five-cent text messages.

INpulse Power costs $2.99, with unlimited night minutes of use and calls at two cents a minute. Text messages cost two cents each.

Customers who set up an INpulse account with an initial payment of $15 may purchase any Verizon Wireless phone (excluding smartphones, PDAs) at the same price as Verizon Wireless customers who sign a one-year customer agreement.

In addition, INpulse Core, INpulse Plus and INpulse Power customers who decide later to move to monthly postpay customer agreements may now keep their INpulse prepay phone numbers when they switch plans. INpulse account balances will be used as a credit toward the new postpay monthly customer agreement.

Verizon Wireless offers INpulse in pre-packaged plans built around three handsets, including $10 of airtime at activation. Those phones are the Samsung SCH-u340, the
Samsung SCH-a870 and the Motorola RAZR V3m.