iPhone Browsing Share Keeps Climbing

There isn't much doubt about the observation that Apple iPhone users surf the mobile Web more than users of other smart phones.  Net Applications, for example, reported that, after five months on the market, the Apple iPhone had browser market share 33 percent greater than that of Windows Mobile devices, despite the vastly-larger installed base of those devices.

The accomplishment? In less than six months, Apple passed Microsoft’s 10-year-plus mobile platform in terms of browser use, and installed base of about 20 million devices. 

So has that behavioral pattern continued? Seeking Alpha writer Ram Krishnan says it has. "I charted the browsing market share of both iPhone and Windows Mobile over six quarters," he says. "Clearly, iPhone is continuing its dizzying ascent, widening its lead significantly over Windows Mobile."

"The market share today stands at four times that of Windows Mobile," says Krishnan. "At this rate, given iPhone 3G’s worldwide distribution, it is quite conceivable that iPhone/iPod will be the fourth largest computing platform in terms of browsing market share (behind only Windows XP, Windows Vista, MacIntel and Mac OS) by end of this year."

Krishnan points out that iPhone will have surpassed the browsing market share of Linux, Windows 2000 and Windows NT platforms.

Australia Broadband Access Plan Will Feature Open Access

Would-be bidders for the Australian broadband access upgrade now seem to be just two: Telstra, the incumbent, and a rival bidding group called Terria, lead by long-time foe Optus, remain in serious contention, according to the Australian. Final proposals are due on November 26. The project entails construction of a  national broadband network that will reach 98 per cent of Australians.

The network is expected to cost A$9.4 billion ($7.8 billion), and the Australian government will help fund about A$4.7 billion worth of the cost. 

Both bidders say they will (obviously) abide by rules requiring wholesale access to the network by retail competitors, though Telstra opposes any formal structural separation of the network, while the Optus-lead group thinks that is not a bad idea. 

Are Broadband Prices Rising or Falling?

It typically is somewhat difficult to measure price changes for a variety of consumer goods, in large part because the "product" changes over time, so nominal prices tell part of the story, but not the whole story. PC hardware, for example, has seen both nominal price declines and vast improves in functionality, all at the same time. That tends to be true in the software area as well, at least in terms of number of features and capabilities.

Multi-channel video service prices tend to rise over time, but the nature of the product also changes. There are more channels and features, even as the price rises.

In the voice area, one can note that mobile and fixed voice services now feature many more features and lower nominal prices, for the most part, though some prices, as in the case of text messaging, are rising. 

One might argue that when service providers increase bandwidth without increasing prices, something like that process of product improvement is at work. Still, recent data from the Pew Internet & American Life project suggests that broadband prices are a bit lower, while dial-up prices are rising. 

Broadband users reported an average monthly bill of $34.50 in April 2008, down from $36 in December 2005, researchers at Pew say. That has happened despite the fact that nearly one-third of home broadband users have a premium broadband

service that gives them a faster connection to the Internet, and for which they pay a higher monthly price. 

Dial-up users, on the other hand, reported monthly bills of $19.70, up nine percent from the $18 figure from December 2005.

The reported average cost of digital subscriber line service ($31.50) continues to be less than cable modem service ($37.50), Pew researchers say.

Given the fact that higher-priced, but higher-capacity products increasingly are available, the simple question "are broadband prices increasing or decreasing" cannot be answered very well. If users want more bandwidth, and buy plans that provide that access, but at higher prices, that is comparing apples and oranges. 

To get to an answer, one would have to compare prices over time for products of equivalent functionality. Aggregate prices alone will not provide answers. 

Wireless Backhaul: Big Bucks?

Mobile backhaul has been a big topic of discussion among service providers over the past several years. In part the interest is driven by the concentrated nature of the opportunity. With multiple new broadband networks being built, and upgrades required to virtually all the existing mobile networks,  providers have a few big customers who can order up thousands of links at a time.

And though it remains unclear just how much more backhaul bandwidth will be required, at least some observers think that once networks such as Clearwire get up to speed, and acquire some customer mass, the requirements at each base station might be as high as 2 Gbps. For providers used to selling T1 connections to mobile cell sites, that's a huge opportunity. 

At Least 96% of U.S. Households Can Buy Cable Modem Service

In Canada, virtually all households in urban centers and 78 percent of households in rural areas were within the broadband footprint at the end of 2006, says the Organization for Economic Cooperation and 

Broadband coverage is also extensive in the OECD’s second largest country, the United States. High-speed cable modem service is available to 96 percent of end-user premises in the United States. DSL coverage is in the high-70s percent penetration. 

Metered or Bucketed Usage Plans? Only One is a Problem

Looking at moves to bandwidth caps by Comcast and other service providers, some observers are concerned about the possible impact of what is termed "metered" usage on user behavior. It's a reasonable concern. Back in the old days of dial-up access, metered usage clearly depressed usage, which exploded in the U.S. market when AOL moved to "unlimited" packaging. 

So observers are right to worry about potential depressing effects on new user behaviors and applications. The concern probably is misplaced, however. There is a difference between "buckets," which feature a usage cap, and "metered" usage. The customer reaction also is quite different. 

Metered usage isn't welcomed by users, primarily because it introduces uncertainty. Users do not like to wonder what their bills will look like, so there is a clear preference for predictability.

But if the buckets are sized appropriately, and when users have some experience to gauge the appropriate buckets, usage does not seem to suffer. Strict metering undoubtedly would depress usage. Buckets will not, if constructed with reasonable parameters and when users have some way to predict and adjust their plans if needed.

The other issue is that lots of other services are offered on a strictly metered basis, and that can be good for light users. Light text message users benefit from a la carte, metered usage charges. Moderate usage quickly allows users to figure out that a bucket is a better deal.

And even metered usage is tolerated, if the prices are reasonable enough. Most users pay for water, natural gas or electricity on a simple metered basis. As long as users know roughly what to expect, and the rates are not outrageous, it does not seem to be a problem. 

Buckets of wireless minutes, buckets of usage that blur the distinction between "long distance" and "local" consumption clearly have encouraged usage. 

Telecom Professionals Say Wireless is Where the Action Is

A recent survey of telecom professionals confirms what industry professionals probably also agree on: wireless is where the action now is. Some 72 percent of respondents believe the biggest opportunities lie within three categories: wireless (40 percent), infrastructure engineering and manufacturing (16 percent), and mobile application development (16 percent). So make the votes ofr wireless 56 percent of the opportunity.

When asked about the immediate future of telecommunications, 70 percent of respondents said they believe the industry would grow or remain consistent, according to TelecomCareers, an online job board for telecommunications, media and technology professionals.

Does Chrome Matter?

Does Google’s new Chrome browser matter? Lehman Brothers analyst Douglas Anmuth thinks so, says Erick Schonfeld, Seeking Alpha commentator. Anmuth points out that Firefox having gained approximately 20 percent market share over the past four years. He thinks Google Chrome could be adopted faster, and gain 15 percent to 20 percent share within two years.

A lot of the attention so far has been on the possibility of Chrome being a Windows killer, by supercharging Web browsing and Web apps so you really won’t need desktop applications. Anmuth believes mobility might be the bigger play, if, as he expects, Chrome will be bundled directly on Android mobile devices. 

The other angle: Google Gears, used to synchronize online documents and data for offline use, might be quite valuable for mobile applications that must operate in a fluid access environment. 

And Google Gears can be very useful for Web apps on mobile devices, where network connections can be spotty.

Global IP Traffic Up 53%

International Internet traffic grew 53 percent between mid-2007 and mid-2008, down from 61 percent the preceding year, say researchers at TeleGeography.

Two Percent Chrome Usage Today?

Web analytics startup GetClicky says that almost two percent of all Internet traffic to the 45,000 websites they monitor is coming from Google Chrome today, according to TechCrunch. 

TechCrunch visitors seem to like Firefox quite alot. In fact, TechCrunch users probably are not like most Internet users. But 56 percent of TechCrunch readers from the last 30 days use Firefox, compared to 31 percent for Internet Explorer and 10 percent for Safari. 

Mobile Gamers: 31 to 70 Million

Mobile gamers who have downloaded a paid-for game numbe about 31 million, according to eMarketer. Mobile gamers who have either done that or played a game preloaded on their mobile device might number as many as 70 million, according to Limbo and GFK/NOP Research.

In June 2008, the dotMobi consortium and AKQA published a study on US and UK mobile Internet activities, which reported 22% of respondents engaged in mobile game play.

At the higher level of use, perhaps 22 percent to 27 percent of mobile phone users play games of any sort. In June 2008, the dotMobi consortium and AKQA conducted a study that suggests 22 percent of respondents play mobile games.

The Pew Internet & American Life Project suggests that 27 percent of U.S. mobile device users had played mobile games on their devices.

Google Chrome:Tabs on Steroids

If the download times are any indication, the 7-Mbyte Google Chrome browser is getting lots of downloads today. The download is slow. First reaction: the tabbed browsing feature, which is the reason many of us seem to prefer Mozilla's Firefox, is really noticeable. Google provides much-more extensive browsing history.

I've only used it briefly today, so although I can't assess perceived browser speed on an extended basis, which is supposed to be one of the advantages, it does seem to be executing faster.

I suspect the ability to isolate a single tab malfunction from paralyzing the whole browser might be useful. I haven't had a crash yet while using Web pages.

Rogers iPhone Usage Data: 91% Use Less than 100 Mbytes

First month data on iPhone user data consumption show that 1.2 percent of iPhone customers used more than 1 GByte of data, 95 percent used less than 500 MBytes, and 91.2% used less than 100 MBytes, says Elizabeth Hamilton, Rogers Wireless director, and reported by by Sean Cooper, of engadget mobile.

Usage patterns might change with time. They typically do. But so far, at least, there doesn't seem to be a mismatch between usage caps and end user behavior. Over time, that likely will get to be a bigger problem, as consumption tends to rise with time and experience.

Roughly the same thing can be said of wired network broadband usage. Over time, usage will drift higher as more users start to routinely consume video.

Google Chrome has Launched

Google's new "Chrome" browser is available for download now.

Business Model Transformation Coming? It Came

ITU Telecom Chairman Dr A Reza Jafari says the global telecom industry is in the midst of a fundamental business model transformation whose most-obvious element is mobility.

According to the Federal Communications Commission data on end-user revenues earned by telephone companies, that certainly is the case.

In 1997 about 16 percent of revenues came from mobility services. In 2007, more than 49 percent of end user revenue came from mobility services.

Likewise, in 1997 more than 47 percent of revenue came from long distance services. In 2007 just 18 percent of end user revenues came from long distance.

In 1997 about 37 percent of total revenues came from local service, while in 2007 about 33 percent was provided by local services.

One way of looking at matters is that the global industry already has lived through two major shifts in revenue: first the collapse of long distance and second the rise of wireless. If you want to know why legacy AT&T and MCI ceased to be dominant independent companies, the collapse of long distance revenues from 47 percent to just 18 percent explains it.

And if you want some idea of where things have gone, wireless has replaced long distance as the provider of nearly half of all revenues. Local services have dipped a bit from 37 percent to 33 percent.

In all likelihood, the next change will involve revenues not even captured by the 1997 and 2007 data, and go beyond wireless. Telco moves into multi-channel video entertainment are but one example.