Some observers say large telcos are "dragging their feet" about applying for "broadband stimulus" funds. That's not the best way to describe it. By RUS rules, large telcos are ineligible to apply.
By NTIA rules, which are targeted to non-profit organizations, most commercial entities likewise are ineligible to apply, at least not as "prime" contractors, unless they get a waiver that says the proposed projects are in the public interest. That might or might not be difficult.
Putting aside other concerns about strings attached to funds received under either the RUS or NTIA programs, the language of the statute, while not forbidding grants to commercial applications, requires a waiver.
Ultimately, commercial entities may find they do best by partnering with a submitting organization that is a government, medical, educational or other non-profit entity.
The single statutory exception is for Small Business Administration firms that already have qualified for "minority set aside" treatment.
Even if service provider concerns about wider business model impact are addressed by the final rules, which remain fluid, the fact remains: NTIA rules heavily favor prime contractors that are non-profits. It remains likewise unclear the degree to which these rules also will apply to RUS funds.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Broadband Stimulus: Commercial Entities "Need Not Apply"
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Broadband Stimulus: Questions, Questions and More Questions
Thousands to tens of thousands of applications are expected for the National Telecommunications and Information Administration $4.7 billion in new broadband project funds, and the Agriculture Department’s Rural Electrification Service $2.5 billion in grants and loans to promote broadband services for “rural broadband.”
One obvious problem, among many, many others is that thousands to perhaps tens to scores of thousands of applications now will hit agencies ill-equipped to process them. RUS has a staff of 130, about 24 working on the broadband stimulus program. Observers say they aren't even sure the NTIA has even 130 people, total. That has some proponents arguing for state-level review, whether or not states actually are delegated authority to make the awards. Others say that is an unnecessary hurdle.
Consider the enormity of the challenge: the statute requires that applicants receive funds received under one program, not both. That requires some way of identifying which projects are funded under each program. But nobody wants a complicated, burdensome, expensive application process. But the RUS program objectives are distinct from those of the NTIA program.
Mark Cooper, director of research at the Consumer Federation of America, argues that maximum coverage and sustainable projects are important. And though many observers probably are thinking about extending access, Cooper thinks investments in backhaul and mobile infrastructure are desirable. “Two that come to mind are mobile computing and Internet back bone to unserved areas."
“I would suggest a rough justice approach: the funds should be divided equally between physical infrastructure and human and social capital, and within the human and social capital area, it should be divided equally between the adoption, training, institutional network and stimulation aspects of the statute,” Cooper said
Mark DeFalco, Appalachian Regional Commission Telecommunications Initiative Manager, thinks it will be tough to create a unified application process, though. “We see each agency having a separate process for processing the loans and grant applications,” DeFalco says. “RUS has an existing process in place, and we expect the new stimulus dollars will flow through that process.”
“NTIA will need to develop their process and quite honestly, with the time limits on this, it is a daunting task to get that process in place and get the money out the door,” he noted. “But both processes should use the same definitions of broadband, un-served and under-served and we would like to see rules specifying minimum speed requirements for rural areas,” DeFalco said.
And though Ramsay favors state level screening, Owens disagrees. “If it comes to the point of the states actually making the determination on who's getting the funding, that may pose a problem for our members,” Owens said.
Cooper suggested there might be danger if the state level became a second level at which grant politics had to be faced. Arnold tended to agree. “Helping NTIA and RUS facilitate this and make it quicker, that's better, but I'm with Mark: if it becomes an impediment, it could be a real problem for us,” said Arnold.
“I honestly believe the only way this is going to get done” is to have the states rank the proposals, with NTIA making the final decisions, said Ramsay.
DeFalco says “the states are probably in the best position to know what rural areas need the coverage in the first round, so we would be strongly advocating the state role in this process.”
But Cooper argues that replacing consultants in Washington, D.C. with consultants at the state level does not represent a lot of progress. In fact, Cooper suggests that if states are to have a strong role, NTIA and RUS “have to come up with some very, very specific criteria, so that it's not really a lot of discretion to the governor or a public utility commission.”
“If they are truly just evaluating against a set of criteria, those criteria are going to have to be really, really carefully defined or else you get into what is essentially a lobbying bailout for PUCs,” says Cooper.
Ramsay predicts that larger states are where most of the proposals will be focused. “I would be surprised” if California did not get thousands if not hundreds of thousands of proposals. “People will go where the money is,” Ramsay says. “With the smaller states, with smaller populations, there will be correspondingly fewer projects.”
Arnold and DeFalco predict there will be thousands or proposals. Owens predicts that there are 1,000 or so rural companies that are interested and likely to submit applications.
“Assuming there would be thousands if not tens of thousands of applications, I have encouraged the entities I work with to make them statewide or regional applications, says Cooper.
DeFalco says what is not wanted is maximum coverage at minimum speeds. “We want to have good coverage in all rural areas.”
“We cannot afford to take these rural areas and give them adequate coverage today which is not going to be adequate for tomorrow,” he says. “If we do that, then we are going to be back in this same situation in a couple of years where they have broadband and they have low-speed DSL service and what they need is something far more robust, while the urban areas have FiOS in place or u-Verse or fast cable and these rural areas are left behind with a slow speed service.”
“We lack internet backbone in rural America, and no matter where the network eventually goes, we are going to need that backbone,” says Cooper.
Arnold suggests that at least in the first of three funding rounds, emphasis should be on infrastructure. “Let's stick with shovels in the ground; get this stuff deployed,” Arnold says.
Harmonizing the NTIA and RUS programs is going to be challenging. RUS loans go to rural telephone companies and private sector providers where NTIA guidelines are set for grants to public or non-profit entities, says DeFalco. “They can't be identical because quite frankly, they are reaching different audiences to a certain degree and they have different programs than the statutes.”
In any case, the application itself, and the sorting process, must, by statute, ensure that projects getting funds from one program do not receive funds from the other, implying some unified way of tracking applications and disbursements. Owens argues the simplest procedure is simply to modify the existing RUS application form, and use it as the vehicle for applying for either NTIA and RUS grants or loans.
Some issues are quite practical: what information does the application form require? How are applications tracked? Who does the tracking? How is the consultation process structured?
Others are practical but directly linked to fulfilling legislative intent. The definitions used for “un-served,” “underserved” and “broadband” are examples. Likewise, what rules govern regional projects that cross political boundaries, include rural and non-rural areas or that might require “prime” contractors to be entities of a certain type according to NTIA or RUS rules.
Cooper argues there is no single technology that best serves all areas and users. “We need to find a minimum standard that really meets needs, that delivers services that are going to be durable, and we need to do that allowing the technologies to compete on their costs,” he said.
Among the other unsettled issues is how disbursements in the first of three funding rounds might differ from second and third rounds, if at all. If the award philosophy is consistent, then applicants will have a better idea of what NTIA and RUS are looking for in the later rounds.
DeFalco pointed out that in the most difficult areas, grants are the only practical solution, as there never will be a payback from any commercial deployment.
Cooper argued loans and grants be linked in some way to the intended retail price of the service offered. “I am very concerned about loans and grants going out and then having people price their services to the market or commercially.”
Another issue is the requirement for a 20-percent project match. There is a waiver clause, and NTIA and RUS will have to figure out what conditions are sufficient to qualify an applicant for a waiver. Even where the match requirement is applied, it is not yet decided whether in-kind matches are permitted, or whether the match must be in cash.
One way or the other, fully rational or not, well-considered or not, there is little time. The statute requires that the first funds be awarded no later than June 2009. It is mid-March and we still are in the "comment" phase. And make no mistake, there will be huge battles over the rules, as there always are when large sums are to be awarded.
One obvious problem, among many, many others is that thousands to perhaps tens to scores of thousands of applications now will hit agencies ill-equipped to process them. RUS has a staff of 130, about 24 working on the broadband stimulus program. Observers say they aren't even sure the NTIA has even 130 people, total. That has some proponents arguing for state-level review, whether or not states actually are delegated authority to make the awards. Others say that is an unnecessary hurdle.
Consider the enormity of the challenge: the statute requires that applicants receive funds received under one program, not both. That requires some way of identifying which projects are funded under each program. But nobody wants a complicated, burdensome, expensive application process. But the RUS program objectives are distinct from those of the NTIA program.
Mark Cooper, director of research at the Consumer Federation of America, argues that maximum coverage and sustainable projects are important. And though many observers probably are thinking about extending access, Cooper thinks investments in backhaul and mobile infrastructure are desirable. “Two that come to mind are mobile computing and Internet back bone to unserved areas."
“I would suggest a rough justice approach: the funds should be divided equally between physical infrastructure and human and social capital, and within the human and social capital area, it should be divided equally between the adoption, training, institutional network and stimulation aspects of the statute,” Cooper said
Mark DeFalco, Appalachian Regional Commission Telecommunications Initiative Manager, thinks it will be tough to create a unified application process, though. “We see each agency having a separate process for processing the loans and grant applications,” DeFalco says. “RUS has an existing process in place, and we expect the new stimulus dollars will flow through that process.”
“NTIA will need to develop their process and quite honestly, with the time limits on this, it is a daunting task to get that process in place and get the money out the door,” he noted. “But both processes should use the same definitions of broadband, un-served and under-served and we would like to see rules specifying minimum speed requirements for rural areas,” DeFalco said.
And though Ramsay favors state level screening, Owens disagrees. “If it comes to the point of the states actually making the determination on who's getting the funding, that may pose a problem for our members,” Owens said.
Cooper suggested there might be danger if the state level became a second level at which grant politics had to be faced. Arnold tended to agree. “Helping NTIA and RUS facilitate this and make it quicker, that's better, but I'm with Mark: if it becomes an impediment, it could be a real problem for us,” said Arnold.
“I honestly believe the only way this is going to get done” is to have the states rank the proposals, with NTIA making the final decisions, said Ramsay.
DeFalco says “the states are probably in the best position to know what rural areas need the coverage in the first round, so we would be strongly advocating the state role in this process.”
But Cooper argues that replacing consultants in Washington, D.C. with consultants at the state level does not represent a lot of progress. In fact, Cooper suggests that if states are to have a strong role, NTIA and RUS “have to come up with some very, very specific criteria, so that it's not really a lot of discretion to the governor or a public utility commission.”
“If they are truly just evaluating against a set of criteria, those criteria are going to have to be really, really carefully defined or else you get into what is essentially a lobbying bailout for PUCs,” says Cooper.
Ramsay predicts that larger states are where most of the proposals will be focused. “I would be surprised” if California did not get thousands if not hundreds of thousands of proposals. “People will go where the money is,” Ramsay says. “With the smaller states, with smaller populations, there will be correspondingly fewer projects.”
Arnold and DeFalco predict there will be thousands or proposals. Owens predicts that there are 1,000 or so rural companies that are interested and likely to submit applications.
“Assuming there would be thousands if not tens of thousands of applications, I have encouraged the entities I work with to make them statewide or regional applications, says Cooper.
DeFalco says what is not wanted is maximum coverage at minimum speeds. “We want to have good coverage in all rural areas.”
“We cannot afford to take these rural areas and give them adequate coverage today which is not going to be adequate for tomorrow,” he says. “If we do that, then we are going to be back in this same situation in a couple of years where they have broadband and they have low-speed DSL service and what they need is something far more robust, while the urban areas have FiOS in place or u-Verse or fast cable and these rural areas are left behind with a slow speed service.”
“We lack internet backbone in rural America, and no matter where the network eventually goes, we are going to need that backbone,” says Cooper.
Arnold suggests that at least in the first of three funding rounds, emphasis should be on infrastructure. “Let's stick with shovels in the ground; get this stuff deployed,” Arnold says.
Harmonizing the NTIA and RUS programs is going to be challenging. RUS loans go to rural telephone companies and private sector providers where NTIA guidelines are set for grants to public or non-profit entities, says DeFalco. “They can't be identical because quite frankly, they are reaching different audiences to a certain degree and they have different programs than the statutes.”
In any case, the application itself, and the sorting process, must, by statute, ensure that projects getting funds from one program do not receive funds from the other, implying some unified way of tracking applications and disbursements. Owens argues the simplest procedure is simply to modify the existing RUS application form, and use it as the vehicle for applying for either NTIA and RUS grants or loans.
Some issues are quite practical: what information does the application form require? How are applications tracked? Who does the tracking? How is the consultation process structured?
Others are practical but directly linked to fulfilling legislative intent. The definitions used for “un-served,” “underserved” and “broadband” are examples. Likewise, what rules govern regional projects that cross political boundaries, include rural and non-rural areas or that might require “prime” contractors to be entities of a certain type according to NTIA or RUS rules.
Cooper argues there is no single technology that best serves all areas and users. “We need to find a minimum standard that really meets needs, that delivers services that are going to be durable, and we need to do that allowing the technologies to compete on their costs,” he said.
Among the other unsettled issues is how disbursements in the first of three funding rounds might differ from second and third rounds, if at all. If the award philosophy is consistent, then applicants will have a better idea of what NTIA and RUS are looking for in the later rounds.
DeFalco pointed out that in the most difficult areas, grants are the only practical solution, as there never will be a payback from any commercial deployment.
Cooper argued loans and grants be linked in some way to the intended retail price of the service offered. “I am very concerned about loans and grants going out and then having people price their services to the market or commercially.”
Another issue is the requirement for a 20-percent project match. There is a waiver clause, and NTIA and RUS will have to figure out what conditions are sufficient to qualify an applicant for a waiver. Even where the match requirement is applied, it is not yet decided whether in-kind matches are permitted, or whether the match must be in cash.
One way or the other, fully rational or not, well-considered or not, there is little time. The statute requires that the first funds be awarded no later than June 2009. It is mid-March and we still are in the "comment" phase. And make no mistake, there will be huge battles over the rules, as there always are when large sums are to be awarded.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Will Private Companies Be Able to Bid for Broadband Stimulus Funds?
Lots of people seem to very interested in the $7.2 billion in "broadband stimulus" funds the NTIA and RUS will be awarding. But there are some very big caveats. With one little exception, only non-profits are, by statute, allowed to apply. And there is some possibility that unless an entity already has in the past gotten a grant from RUS, it might not be well positioned to apply under the RUS rules, either.
And though RUS and NTIA are holding lots of hearings, there remains more uncertainty than clarity.
At a March 16 National Telecommunications and Information Administration hearing, presenters said about what you would expect them to say about bidding rules for the upcoming round of NTIA and U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Utilities Service "broadband stimulus" grants, loans and loan guarantees.
A service provider representative suggested service providers should be able to apply. "NTIA should extend eligibility to any existing entity that holds an FCC license, state certificate of public convenience and necessity, cable franchise or similar
government authorization or who is otherwise providing broadband service under applicable federal and state law," said Curt Stamp, president of the Independent Telephone and Telecommunications Alliance.
"No additional or individual review of any such entity should be required"Curt Stamp, president of the Independent Telephone and Telecommunications Alliance.
A representative of the Communications Workers of America urged that service provider entities be given "priority" so long as projects proposed by such entities have endorsements from non-profit entities specifically named in the legislation.
"Priority should be given to entities that add substantial infrastructure and focus on unserved areas," said Debbie Goldman, Communications workers of America telecommunications policy director. "An applicant should be required to demonstrate that it has the financial, technical, managerial, and operational qualifications to complete the project in timely manner, and then it has the capacity to continue operating after stimulus funding is no longer available."
"Past performance shall be a strong consideration to determine the applicant's qualifications," Goldman argued.
The New America Foundation representative argued that telcos and cable companies should not be given special priority, but rather "the types of eligible private entities we must support must go far beyond usual suspects," said Sasha Meinrath, New America Foundation Open Technology Initiative research director. That's what one would expect from an entity in favor of open access.
Betty Ann Kane, chairwoman of hte District of Columbia Public Service Commission, emphasized the need to consult with state and political subdivisions including state public utility commissions, state broadband authorities and state service administrative agencies. "Private firms or sole proprietorships or individuals should be considered eligible when those entities act in partnership with any of those state entities."
Grant Seiffert, Telecommunications Industry Association president, argued that focusing on eligibility is the wrong focus. "NTIA should not focus on what type of entity an applicant is but rather on, one, to the value the proposed project to the American people and two, the applicant's ability to use the funds to achieve the project's objective."
Seiffert said he does not "believe that this program can be successful and meet the goals set by Congress and the administration without private parties being involved."
And though RUS and NTIA are holding lots of hearings, there remains more uncertainty than clarity.
At a March 16 National Telecommunications and Information Administration hearing, presenters said about what you would expect them to say about bidding rules for the upcoming round of NTIA and U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Utilities Service "broadband stimulus" grants, loans and loan guarantees.
A service provider representative suggested service providers should be able to apply. "NTIA should extend eligibility to any existing entity that holds an FCC license, state certificate of public convenience and necessity, cable franchise or similar
government authorization or who is otherwise providing broadband service under applicable federal and state law," said Curt Stamp, president of the Independent Telephone and Telecommunications Alliance.
"No additional or individual review of any such entity should be required"Curt Stamp, president of the Independent Telephone and Telecommunications Alliance.
A representative of the Communications Workers of America urged that service provider entities be given "priority" so long as projects proposed by such entities have endorsements from non-profit entities specifically named in the legislation.
"Priority should be given to entities that add substantial infrastructure and focus on unserved areas," said Debbie Goldman, Communications workers of America telecommunications policy director. "An applicant should be required to demonstrate that it has the financial, technical, managerial, and operational qualifications to complete the project in timely manner, and then it has the capacity to continue operating after stimulus funding is no longer available."
"Past performance shall be a strong consideration to determine the applicant's qualifications," Goldman argued.
The New America Foundation representative argued that telcos and cable companies should not be given special priority, but rather "the types of eligible private entities we must support must go far beyond usual suspects," said Sasha Meinrath, New America Foundation Open Technology Initiative research director. That's what one would expect from an entity in favor of open access.
Betty Ann Kane, chairwoman of hte District of Columbia Public Service Commission, emphasized the need to consult with state and political subdivisions including state public utility commissions, state broadband authorities and state service administrative agencies. "Private firms or sole proprietorships or individuals should be considered eligible when those entities act in partnership with any of those state entities."
Grant Seiffert, Telecommunications Industry Association president, argued that focusing on eligibility is the wrong focus. "NTIA should not focus on what type of entity an applicant is but rather on, one, to the value the proposed project to the American people and two, the applicant's ability to use the funds to achieve the project's objective."
Seiffert said he does not "believe that this program can be successful and meet the goals set by Congress and the administration without private parties being involved."
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
What Next for Salesforce.com, other SaaS Providers?
Salesforce.com has been the poster child for how voice and communications capabilities can be integrated with enterprise applications.But Salesforce.com now is a decade old. Pretty obviously, the focus on applications that can benefit from voice has to shift elsewhere.
And analysts at Forrester Research say enterprise interest in SaaS might be slowing. That could suggest that organizations are having a harder time figuring out where SaaS really delivers measurable benefits.
Web conferencing might be the only application for which there is broad-based recognition of the value of voice and communications tightly integrated with an existing business app (presentations and meetings).
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Cisco Enters Blade Server Business, Ecosystem
Cisco has introduced a new data center architecture that moves it directly into the blade server and computing architecture business. That inevitably means Cisco now competes in some new areas with the likes of Hewlett-Packard and IBM.
Cisco says it has designed an entirely new class of computing system incorporating the new Cisco UCS B-Series blades based on the Intel Nehalem processor families. The Cisco Unified Computing System also essentially consolidates what today are three separate networks: local area networks (LANs), storage area networks (SANs) and high performance computing networks, into a single fabric.
By supporting "virtualization," allowing multiple apps to run on a single server, Cisco's move also suggests some further changes. Though up to this point most important business applications have been run on dedicated hardware, in the future apps might typically run on standard hardware.
For those of you with some decades of experience in the communications business, that might suggest an evolution of most parts of the business towards "software" rather than dedicated machines. Where once a Class 5 switch was a discrete machine, in the future the equivalent applications might run much as other enterprise apps do: on standard hardware platforms, using Ethernet as the transmission layer.
That might lead to rather widespread repositioning. Many companies commonly thought of as "hardware" providers might come to be better known as enterprise or carrier "software" firms, with less direct bundling of the hardware on which the applications execute. At that point, an enterprise class data center becomes a carrier switching center. You can then envision new ways for contestants to build the foundation for a communications business.
That doesn't mean the existing financial, legal and regulatory issues go away. Those key elements of the business context must be addressed. But core communications features might shift to a more software-focused mode, without the requirement for dedicated hardware. This probably is a longish sort of transition. But the direction increasingly is clear.
To the extent that the Cisco architecture incorporates a number of discrete networking protocols such as Storage Area Networking and LANs, the ecosystem further might create some new entry points for wide area network providers into the enterprise computing and LAN business as well.
That trend likewise will take some time to develop. In principle, though, it should in the future be easier to integrate "data center" and "central office" apps in a more unified way. Big stuff.
Cisco says it has designed an entirely new class of computing system incorporating the new Cisco UCS B-Series blades based on the Intel Nehalem processor families. The Cisco Unified Computing System also essentially consolidates what today are three separate networks: local area networks (LANs), storage area networks (SANs) and high performance computing networks, into a single fabric.
By supporting "virtualization," allowing multiple apps to run on a single server, Cisco's move also suggests some further changes. Though up to this point most important business applications have been run on dedicated hardware, in the future apps might typically run on standard hardware.
For those of you with some decades of experience in the communications business, that might suggest an evolution of most parts of the business towards "software" rather than dedicated machines. Where once a Class 5 switch was a discrete machine, in the future the equivalent applications might run much as other enterprise apps do: on standard hardware platforms, using Ethernet as the transmission layer.
That might lead to rather widespread repositioning. Many companies commonly thought of as "hardware" providers might come to be better known as enterprise or carrier "software" firms, with less direct bundling of the hardware on which the applications execute. At that point, an enterprise class data center becomes a carrier switching center. You can then envision new ways for contestants to build the foundation for a communications business.
That doesn't mean the existing financial, legal and regulatory issues go away. Those key elements of the business context must be addressed. But core communications features might shift to a more software-focused mode, without the requirement for dedicated hardware. This probably is a longish sort of transition. But the direction increasingly is clear.
To the extent that the Cisco architecture incorporates a number of discrete networking protocols such as Storage Area Networking and LANs, the ecosystem further might create some new entry points for wide area network providers into the enterprise computing and LAN business as well.
That trend likewise will take some time to develop. In principle, though, it should in the future be easier to integrate "data center" and "central office" apps in a more unified way. Big stuff.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Think You Qualify for Broadband Stimulus Funds?
Lots of companies and organizations believe they might be eligible to apply for funds to support broadband access services. Some of them are right. But the rules might be far-more restrictive in practice than most believe.
NTIA funds clearly favor non-profit and governmental agencies. RUS funds clearly favor firms that have received rural electrification funds in the past. So most actual firms that supply broadband access services will not be able to apply directly. Perhaps they can do so if they are participants in bids submitted by government or non-project agencies.
But it appears lots of firms will spend significant time, and some money, to learn that they don't actually have much of a chance to submit bids that meet the program guidelines very well.
Section 6001 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 requires the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) to establish the Broadband Technology Opportunities Program, responsible for disbursing some $7 billion or so for broadband projects of various sorts. The Act further establishes authority for the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) to make grants and loans for the deployment and construction of broadband systems.
NTIA will be disbursing about $4.7 billion while RUS will award some $2.5 billion. Applicants have been told they may apply for awards under both programs, but will receive awards from only one, should their proposals be accepted. But there is a dramatic difference between the two sets of programs.
Despite the exhortations to craft applications that apply under either set of program rules--rules that remain maddeningly vague--the NTIA and RUS programs are quite different in intent.
RUS is supposed to award grants, make loans and offer loan guarantees for broadband infrastructure in any area of the United States where at least 75 percent of the area to be served by a project is a rural area without sufficient access to high speed "broadband service to facilitate rural economic development." The emphasis for RUS funds clearly leans toward infrastructure deployment.
The NTIA program, in contrast, clearly is aimed at "new programs," not infrastructure, with a clear "non-profit" organization focus. In fact it remains unclear whether "for profit" entities will be allowed to submit applications, except for "economically or socially disadvantaged small businesses as defined in section 8(a) of the Small Business Act."
NTIA has to give some preference to projects supported by local authorities, especially state agencies. But it also has to give preference to public safety applications; health care providers, clinics, and facilities; schools and libraries; colleges, universities, or other higher education and research institutions; job training and job-creating facilities and community support organizations.
NTIA also is bound by statute to give preference to projects that increase broadband access to low-income, unemployed, aged, and other disadvantaged or "vulnerable" populations.
But NTIA also is directed to favor projects that provide educational or employment opportunities using broadband access/deployment/infrastructure; that stimulate demand for broadband and economic growth; and that are submitted by nonprofit organizations (for-profit firms can partner with such entities).
Projects must show that they would not be undertaken but for the grant. But such projects also should show how they increase affordability of, or subscribership to, broadband to the greatest populations.
Projects that offer high broadband speeds also will be favored, as well as projects that enhance healthcare, or serve education or children. The one area where commercial interests are allowed to bid, by statute, are "economically or socially disadvantaged small businesses as defined in section 8(a) of the Small Business Act."
Projects that feature the greatest "open access" to users might also be favored.
That's an awful messy set of priorities, with an awful lot of constituencies to satisfy, with no immediate indication how a commercial service provider might apply, except as a partner of a non-proift.
The RUS program rules give priority for awarding funds in ways "that will deliver end users a choice of more than one service
provider." So far, there is no language that clarifies what that means, but it might mean higher priority for projects that have a substantial "wholesale access" component.
The RUS program also favors projects submitted by "borrowers or former borrowers under title II of the Rural Electrification Act of 1936 and for project applications that include such borrowers or former borrowers." In practice, that means the inside track is held by firms now receiving, or who have received in the past, funds.
Much remains to be decided, so perhaps the finalized rules will open the doors a bit for most companies that actually sell broadband access to customers. Right now, that isn't the case.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Despite Video, Text Still Rules, So does Voice
There are some interesting parallels between "voice" and "text," and the relationships can illustrated by the difference between "telephony" and "IP communications," or "text" and "video."
Voice usage continues to increase, even as more text, blogging, video and conferencing occurs as well. But voice is not necessarily "telephony." Voice is used in many different ways, even as buying of traditional consumer voice lines continues to decline in favor of mobile or VoIP alternatives.
Likewise, lost of news, commentary and entertainment now is moving away from legacy print and towards online formats. But text seems to have grown in importance as legacy "print" channels have struggled. Again, what we see is a pattern similar to that of "voice" usage. More usage, but using new formats, media and channels.
But user behavior is quite complex. As Steve Rubel points out in this post, text remains key for Web-based and mobile communications, even as Web video has emerged as the next wave of Web media.
One can look at video growth, telephony "decline", and make the wrong forecast: that people mostly will communicate using video. Likewise, one can look at the demise of newspapers or magzines and assume people are not reading. They're reading, but it is tweets, blog posts, news feeds and Web pages. Text simply is used in different ways.
As Rubel notes, though, an argument can be made that text still "rules."
Voice usage continues to increase, even as more text, blogging, video and conferencing occurs as well. But voice is not necessarily "telephony." Voice is used in many different ways, even as buying of traditional consumer voice lines continues to decline in favor of mobile or VoIP alternatives.
Likewise, lost of news, commentary and entertainment now is moving away from legacy print and towards online formats. But text seems to have grown in importance as legacy "print" channels have struggled. Again, what we see is a pattern similar to that of "voice" usage. More usage, but using new formats, media and channels.
But user behavior is quite complex. As Steve Rubel points out in this post, text remains key for Web-based and mobile communications, even as Web video has emerged as the next wave of Web media.
One can look at video growth, telephony "decline", and make the wrong forecast: that people mostly will communicate using video. Likewise, one can look at the demise of newspapers or magzines and assume people are not reading. They're reading, but it is tweets, blog posts, news feeds and Web pages. Text simply is used in different ways.
As Rubel notes, though, an argument can be made that text still "rules."
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Thinking the Unthinkable: Telcos Have Done Better than Publishers
Over the course of some years I have on occasion used the airline analogy to look at structural issues faced by telecom service providers. Both are capital-intensive industries with huge economies of scale, multiple customer segments, important regulatory backdrop, and similar market entry and incumbent response patterns.
At other times I have used the analogy of how Internet Protocol is changing the telecom business to describe what is happening in the print media business, arguing that the underlying business impact is similar in both industries.
Neither the print nor the airline industries have performed as well as the telecom industry in coping with dramatic change.
Clay Shirkey's article is a provocative but largely accurate assessment of why print publishers--newspapers in this case--have failed to adapt as rapidly as telecom providers have.
At other times I have used the analogy of how Internet Protocol is changing the telecom business to describe what is happening in the print media business, arguing that the underlying business impact is similar in both industries.
Neither the print nor the airline industries have performed as well as the telecom industry in coping with dramatic change.
Clay Shirkey's article is a provocative but largely accurate assessment of why print publishers--newspapers in this case--have failed to adapt as rapidly as telecom providers have.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Friday, March 13, 2009
More than 77 percent of wireless subscribers in the U.S. subscribe to or purchase text-message capability, says Nielsen Mobile. And uers now send and receive more text messages than they do voice calls.In the United States, about 200 million of the 259 million wireless subscriber lines subscribe to or purchase text-message capability. Of these, 138 million--53 percent of all mobile subscribers--use text-messaging on a regular basis.
Nielsen recently reported that in the second quarter of 2008, mobile subscribers sent or received an average of 357 text-messages per month, compared with 204 phone calls. And while the average number of text-messages sent or received has increased 351 percent (from 79 text-messages sent or received last year), phone traffic have not become less popular.
In fact, phone useage has been constant, suggesting that text messaging adds to, rather than replaces, voice communications.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
U.S. and U.K. Users Represent Half of Mobile Web Browsing
About 29 percent of global mobile Web browsing traffic now happens in the United States, with about 20.3 percent happening in the United Kingdom. Between them, the United States and United Kingdom now represent about half of global mobile Web browsing, says bango.That might come as a surprise to many. What might be a bigger surprise is the number of people who now land on Web sites using a mobile. That could be an issue: sites not optimized for mobile access might not execute some expected functions at all, others poorly.
But most businesses do not have mobile-optimized websites.“Many people simply have no idea that they have visitors from mobile devices accessing their PC-optimized website, says Anil Malhotra, Bango SVP."These mobile visitors are simply invisible to them.”
The statistics also show that while some countries such as India and Indonesia have a good appetite for browsing on their mobiles, it doesn’t always convert into purchases. In fact, only five countries in the Top-10 browsing chart are also in the Top-10 payments chart. Those countries are the United States, United Kingdom, Portugal, South Africa and Spain.
“When it comes to payments though, the US is accelerating faster than any other country and now accounts for 57 percent of payments worldwide,” says Malhotra.
No matter how high the browsing rate, it is only converted into a high purchase rate where people have a good disposable income and can pay for content on their phone bills, bango says. In regions such as India, South Africa, Indonesia and Egypt the driver for mobile browsing is a lack of fixed-line broadband and PCs for accessing the Internet which means that the mobile device is the only way people can get onto the Internet.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Google Voice to Launch Within Days
Nearly two years after acquiring GrandCentral, Google is preparing to relaunch the service with lots of new features. GrandCentral has been in private beta for the last two years and over the next few days Google will be prompting existing beta users to upgrade to Google Voice before rolling out the service to new users in a few weeks.
GrandCentral was a Web-activated IP voice service that uses a single "public" number that points to other numbers and devices, providing a range of visual voice mail and Web message retrieval and call management features.
Google Voice will add the ability to make free calls to U.S. telephone numbers and cheap calls to other numbers, make conference calls, and send, receive, store, and search SMS messages and create transcripts of voice mails.
From my perspective, one of the best new features is the ability to deliver the Google Voice number, even when placing a call from some other real device. The reason for that is that Google Voice features are applied to inbound calls using the virtual number.
If anybody calls using the actual device's "delivered" number (caller ID), the features aren't available. So it now will be easier to deliver the Google Voice caller ID on outbound calls, which virtually assures that return calls will arrive in a way that allows call management features to work.
Also, voice mail now will more nearly resemble email, and users can create transcripts of calls, a useful feature for many call settings.
Hopefully, Google will make address book importation easier as well. That, and the inability to simply deliver the GrandCentral virtual phone number, have been my two biggest problems using the service.
GrandCentral was a Web-activated IP voice service that uses a single "public" number that points to other numbers and devices, providing a range of visual voice mail and Web message retrieval and call management features.
Google Voice will add the ability to make free calls to U.S. telephone numbers and cheap calls to other numbers, make conference calls, and send, receive, store, and search SMS messages and create transcripts of voice mails.
From my perspective, one of the best new features is the ability to deliver the Google Voice number, even when placing a call from some other real device. The reason for that is that Google Voice features are applied to inbound calls using the virtual number.
If anybody calls using the actual device's "delivered" number (caller ID), the features aren't available. So it now will be easier to deliver the Google Voice caller ID on outbound calls, which virtually assures that return calls will arrive in a way that allows call management features to work.
Also, voice mail now will more nearly resemble email, and users can create transcripts of calls, a useful feature for many call settings.
Hopefully, Google will make address book importation easier as well. That, and the inability to simply deliver the GrandCentral virtual phone number, have been my two biggest problems using the service.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Comcast Passes Qwest as Phone Provider
Comcast Corp, the largest U.S. cable television company, says it now has become the third-largest provider of primary home phone service in the United States, overtaking telephone company Qwest Communications International.
Comcast, which started offering phone services in the spring of 2005, said it now has 6.47 million subscribers.
Comcast, which started offering phone services in the spring of 2005, said it now has 6.47 million subscribers.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
RCN Metro Has "Nice Problems"
Here's a problem any service provider sales staff would like to have: trying to figure out why sales are running ahead of projections for four months in a row. But that's precisely the issue Phil Alvarez, RCN Metro Optical Networks president, says he has been "grappling" with over the last four months.
"Gven our sales across all markets, we were trying to figure out why we are doing so well," says Alvarez. "You
question yourself." When RCN Metro dug into the numbers, it found very strong activity in wireless, a result of wireless providers really shoring up their backbones to support wireless broadband services. Need for more route diversity and the ability to provision very quickly also were factors.
You might think any provider with exposure to the financial services industry might face some exposure. Sure, there's some churn, says Alvarez. But "our services address trading requirements, data center connectivity and connections to customers and trading partners," Alvarez says.
So they still are buying. The financial services industry is used to periodic downturns, Alvarez says. They know business will pick up again so they have to keep moving. Their core business plans require capacity investments.
That said, RCN has seen some minimal recession impact. Some customers say they might substitute new providers for some services, on some routes, in some areas, in part because, on some selected routes, and for some services, a great deal of very-aggressive pricing is going on, in areas such as transit services. What is more obvious is pricing pressure on high-traffic routes, though. In other areas, on a highly route dependent basis, prices are relatively firm, or firming.
Generally, on routes where there is pricing pressure, it is Ethernet capacity pricing that is most exposed, not SONET capacity, which Maura Mahoney, RCN VP, says is quite strong.
That isn't to say the recession is haivng no impact at all. It is reasonable to assume that, industrywide, customers are asking for, and might be getting, more capacity for any given level of payment, especially when contracts are renegotiated early, locked in for more years or when upgrades from 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps, or 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps services occur.
That does not seem to be the case for10-Gbps and wavelength purchases, though, says Alvarez.
To be sure, lower prices wouldn't be much unusual in the capacity business, which is used to virtually annual decreases in price-per-megabit-per-second pricing.
In some cases, customers are asking for shorter contract intervals. Where customers might have been buying contracts of five to seven years' length, they are in some cases making three-year commitments. Historically, longer commitments have been associated with a belief that prices would be climbing, shorter commitements with a belief that prices will be falling. That might not be the primary driver at the moment, but could be playing a factor.
Crowded routes are being hammered by low price competitors, though, and Alvarez believes that is not sustainable.
Still, Alvarez says he has been "surprised" at the levels of demand.
A nice problem to have, these days.
"Gven our sales across all markets, we were trying to figure out why we are doing so well," says Alvarez. "You
question yourself." When RCN Metro dug into the numbers, it found very strong activity in wireless, a result of wireless providers really shoring up their backbones to support wireless broadband services. Need for more route diversity and the ability to provision very quickly also were factors.
You might think any provider with exposure to the financial services industry might face some exposure. Sure, there's some churn, says Alvarez. But "our services address trading requirements, data center connectivity and connections to customers and trading partners," Alvarez says.
So they still are buying. The financial services industry is used to periodic downturns, Alvarez says. They know business will pick up again so they have to keep moving. Their core business plans require capacity investments.
That said, RCN has seen some minimal recession impact. Some customers say they might substitute new providers for some services, on some routes, in some areas, in part because, on some selected routes, and for some services, a great deal of very-aggressive pricing is going on, in areas such as transit services. What is more obvious is pricing pressure on high-traffic routes, though. In other areas, on a highly route dependent basis, prices are relatively firm, or firming.
Generally, on routes where there is pricing pressure, it is Ethernet capacity pricing that is most exposed, not SONET capacity, which Maura Mahoney, RCN VP, says is quite strong.
That isn't to say the recession is haivng no impact at all. It is reasonable to assume that, industrywide, customers are asking for, and might be getting, more capacity for any given level of payment, especially when contracts are renegotiated early, locked in for more years or when upgrades from 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps, or 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps services occur.
That does not seem to be the case for10-Gbps and wavelength purchases, though, says Alvarez.
To be sure, lower prices wouldn't be much unusual in the capacity business, which is used to virtually annual decreases in price-per-megabit-per-second pricing.
In some cases, customers are asking for shorter contract intervals. Where customers might have been buying contracts of five to seven years' length, they are in some cases making three-year commitments. Historically, longer commitments have been associated with a belief that prices would be climbing, shorter commitements with a belief that prices will be falling. That might not be the primary driver at the moment, but could be playing a factor.
Crowded routes are being hammered by low price competitors, though, and Alvarez believes that is not sustainable.
Still, Alvarez says he has been "surprised" at the levels of demand.
A nice problem to have, these days.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
AT&T to Add 3,?000 Jobs, Reduce CapEx $2-$3 Billion
AT&T plans to invest $17 billion to $18 billion in 2009, in line with its 2007 capital expenditures of $17.7 billion, though not as much as the almost $20 billion it spent in 2008.
About two thirds of AT&T's 2009 investment will go to its wireless and wired broadband networks The company also says it will add almost 3,000 jobs in 2009, primarily to support mobility, broadband and video services.
AT&T also expects to reduce jobs in other areas, primarily wireline. Some of the investment is in more than 2,100 new cell sites across the country, as well as an expansion of 3G service to 20 new markets in 2009. .
AT&T also says it will invest in its IP/MPLS backbone networks, U-verse, more DSL coverage.
About two thirds of AT&T's 2009 investment will go to its wireless and wired broadband networks The company also says it will add almost 3,000 jobs in 2009, primarily to support mobility, broadband and video services.
AT&T also expects to reduce jobs in other areas, primarily wireline. Some of the investment is in more than 2,100 new cell sites across the country, as well as an expansion of 3G service to 20 new markets in 2009. .
AT&T also says it will invest in its IP/MPLS backbone networks, U-verse, more DSL coverage.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
NTIA Broadband Stimulus Meeting: Little Meat on Bones
The National Telecommunications and Information Agency held a public meeting on how the broadband stimulus programs will work, and attendees emerged with little more concrete detail than they entered with, with a couple of suggestive bits of guidance.
Bernadette McGuire-Rivera, NTIA associate administrator, suggested the agency will try to allot its $4.7 billion for broadband programs in three rounds of grants, with the first round coming between April and June. The NTIA is required to allocate all the money by September 2010.
The Rural Utilities Service, with about $2.5 billion to allocate, also likely have three rounds of grants and possibly loans, with a funding notice coming out within 60 to 90 days, said David Villano, USDA assistant administrator for telecommunications programs.
Bernadette McGuire-Rivera, NTIA associate administrator, suggested the agency will try to allot its $4.7 billion for broadband programs in three rounds of grants, with the first round coming between April and June. The NTIA is required to allocate all the money by September 2010.
The Rural Utilities Service, with about $2.5 billion to allocate, also likely have three rounds of grants and possibly loans, with a funding notice coming out within 60 to 90 days, said David Villano, USDA assistant administrator for telecommunications programs.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Yes, Follow the Data. Even if it Does Not Fit Your Agenda
When people argue we need to “follow the science” that should be true in all cases, not only in cases where the data fits one’s political pr...
-
We have all repeatedly seen comparisons of equity value of hyperscale app providers compared to the value of connectivity providers, which s...
-
It really is surprising how often a Pareto distribution--the “80/20 rule--appears in business life, or in life, generally. Basically, the...
-
One recurring issue with forecasts of multi-access edge computing is that it is easier to make predictions about cost than revenue and infra...