Thursday, July 8, 2010

65% of Mobile Users "Text;" 30% Download Apps

About 65 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers used text messaging on their mobile device in May 2010, up 1.4 percentage points compared to the prior three month period, while browsers were used by 32 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers (up 2.3 percentage points).

About 30 percent of the mobile audience downloaded apps, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous period. Accessing of social networking sites or blogs also saw significant growth, increasing 2.6 percentage points to 21 percent of mobile subscribers.

49 Million U.S. Smartphones in Service

49.1 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in May 2010, up 8.1 percent from the corresponding February period.

Research in Motion was the leading mobile smartphone platform in the U.S. with 41.7 percent share of U.S. smartphone subscribers, followed by Apple with 24.4 percent share and Microsoft with 13.2 percent.

Google saw significant growth during the period, up four percentage points to 13 percent of smartphone subscribers, while Palm rounded out the top five with 4.8 percent.

Cable Chills in Advance of Potential Net Neutrality Ruling

Regulation has a huge impact on communications and multi-channel video entertainment companies (telcos and cable), and the reason is quite simple: regulation creates, conditions or damages the business opportunity. Lots of observers would predict that imposition of strong network neutrality rules, by limiting growth options, would have clear negative impact on equity values, ability to raise capital and ultimately revenue, cash flow and profit.

It appears some of the damage is caused simply by raising the specter of such changes. "'The FCC has voted itself a loaded gun, pointed it at the carriers (cable and telco alike) and then promised not to shoot," said Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research analyst.

'What is clear ... is that we are now facing a protracted period -- likely years long -- of enormous uncertainty,' Moffett said.

"The bull case for cable stocks is a simple one," Moffett wrote. "Cable wins the broadband wars. But the prospect for broadband price regulation cuts to the heart of that thesis."

100 Million Mobile YouTube Playbacks Every Day

YouTube Mobile now receives more than 100 million video playbacks a day. This is roughly the number of daily playbacks that YouTube.com was streaming when YouTube was acquired by Google in 2006.

YouTube Adds HTML5 Site




YouTube is launching a new mobile site optimized for HTML5, m.youtube.com, as well as a new mobile app pointed at the site.

The web app apparently has superior video quality when compared to native applications on the iPhone and will soon feature more content as well. Both iPhone and Android devices will get the new app.

Does Information Really "Want to be Free"?

"On the one hand, information wants to be expensive, because it's so valuable,' said writer Stewart Brand in 1984. 'The right information in the right place just changes your life. On the other hand, information wants to be free, because the cost of getting it out is getting lower and lower all the time. So you have these two fighting against each other."

All information is not equal. Some types of information are so valuable (the current price of lots of commodities) that spending huge amounts of money to discover price, and act on it, are justifiable. Other sorts of information do not have these characteristics.

But there is no single rule that adequately describes information economics.

Sigmoid Curves and Network Effects Drive Scale and, Usually, Profit Margins

Ultimately, businesses live and die on three simple dynamics: distributions, network effects and  sigmoid curves (S curves), says Niel Robertson, Trada CEO.

Distributions tell you how much you can afford to spend selling a product, he says. Accounts worth $1,000 each cannot be sold the same way as accounts worth $1 million each. Mass media advertising or distributors might work for the former, but direct sales is feasible for the latter. 

S curves determine how far you can scale a business, he says. S curves also illustrate product life cycles and the strategy of creating the next new wave of products before the current revenue driver begins to decline. 

Network effects account for the out-sized returns when a business can achieve huge market share.

Almost all problems (and most opportunities) come from understanding how to take advantage of these functions – rather than fight against them, he says.

There's a Difference Between a "Search Query" and a Robo Call

Twitter's search query numbers include 'searches' from Twitter apps such as TweetDeck and Seesmic that are actually just automated calls those apps send out every few minutes to populate columns users have set up to see tweets on certain topics.

So maybe recent Twitter "search volume" figures are a bit inflated?

Differing iPhone Demographics in France, U.K., Germany

Apparently iPhone owners in several European countries have distinct and non-similar age profiles.

The key segment in France is 16-to 24-year-olds, who represent 36 percent of France’s iPhone owners; in the UK, it’s 25- to 34-year-olds, who account for 40 percent of the U.K.’s iPhone owners; and it’s 35- to 44-year-olds in Germany, who make up 33 percent of Germany’s iPhone owners.

In France, which has the highest adoption of iPhones in Europe, only 57 percent of the total iPhone installed base is male; in Germany, it’s 76 percent.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Where Google Might Go Next

Taking a look at places users go immediately after visiting Google to search for something suggests the next area Google might explore, after its recent move into travel: gaming.

The table shows the top 20 downstream industries visited after a Google visit during the month of June 2010.

Google's presence is obvious in most: Search Engines (Google.com), Entertainment (YouTube), Shopping and Classifieds (Google Shopping, Google Base), Business and Finance (Google Finance). Google's presence is perhaps less obvious in others: Social Networking and Forums (YouTube, Orkut, Google Talk), Education (Knol, Google Book Search, Google Scholar), Lifestyle (Blogger).

After travel, gaming is the next area where Google does not arguably already have a presence.

Anybody Can Make a Mistake: This Doesn't Exactly Sound Like a Mistake

Late last month, lobbyists for the pro-net neutrality movement began circulating a letter on Capitol Hill demanding the immediate passage of a law that would allow the Federal Communications Commission to regulate broadband access as a common carrier service. The letter featured over 160 signatories, among them the Dr. Pepper Museum, Planned Parenthood of North Texas, and Operation Catnip, a spay-and-neuter clinic in Gainesville, Florida.

One signatory doesn’t remember signing anything related to net neutrality, and the other signatories contacted by The Daily Caller could not explain their support for Title II reclassification. In fact, they didn’t even attempt to explain their support.

Legislators vote on bills they haven't read. Apparently groups sometimes "support" issues they don't necessarily understand.

The Web is Getting More Social, Google Says


No surprise then that Google, one way or the other, will "get more social" in response.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Some might argue that Apple's invention of an amazing new product will prove to be "deja vu all over again."

Though any such analysis has to account for the intervening success of the iPod, which completely dominates market share in the MP3 player market, what happened in the PC business could happen in the tablet PC market, some will argue.

Namely, Apple could wind up a niche supplier of high-end devices, rather than the dominant provider in the segment, because of its insistence on a "closed" model.

Mobile Access: People are Rational

One of the issues when looking at broadband access is the role of demand. People sometimes assume that more people would use broadband if more were available, which ignores the fact that most people do have access, and choose not to buy fixed broadband service, for example, much as most people choose not to buy the fastest-possible speed service.

The point is that consumers are rational: they buy services and products that have value.

Consider use of mobile Internet services. According to researchers at Pew Internet & American Life Project, minority Americans lead the way when it comes to mobile access, especially mobile access using handheld devices. Does that mean there is a "mobile broadband digital divide?" Hardly. The same percentage of European-descended Americans have mobile phones.

Sometimes, different segments of the consumer population will use some services, features or applications more than others. That does not necessarily mean there is a "divide" of any sort that is driven by disparate access to assets. It does mean some people find some services and applications more useful than others do.

Nearly two-thirds of African-descendedAmericans (64 percent) and Latinos (63 percent) are wireless Internet users, for example, a higher percentage than European-descended Americans. More Latinos and African Americans own mobile phones than European-descended Americans.

"Minority" Americans are significantly more likely to own a cell phone than their white counterparts (87 percent of blacks and Hispanics own a cell phone, compared with 80 percent of whites). Additionally, black and Latino cell phone owners take advantage of a much wider array of their phones’ data functions compared to white cell phone owners.

Statistical variances, in other words, are just that--variances--and not necessarily evidence of disparity of access.

60% of U.S. Adults Use Mobile Internet

About 60 percent of adult American adults are now wireless Internet users, and mobile data applications have grown more popular over the last year, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Pew defines "wireless Internet use" as going online with a laptop using a Wi-Fi connection or mobile broadband card, or using the Internet, email or instant messaging on the mobile phone.

Roughly half of all adults (47 percent) say they use a Wi-Fi connection, up from the 39 percent who did so at a similar point in 2009.

About 40 percent of adults use the mobile Internet, email or IM from a mobile device, an increase from the 32 percent of adults who did so in 2009.

Will AI "Eat Enterprise Software?"

If you are an investor in enterprise software , you are aware there is a fear that language models are going to disrupt the traditional ent...