Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Bacteria rush in to gobble up oil plumes from Deepwater

Researchers have discovered a large contingent of silent partners in the Deepwater oil spill cleanup—bacteria. Two samples of a deep-sea oil plume show that a high number of microbes have populated the oily area and are hacking away at the hydrocarbon concentration.

The bacteria also seem to be using relatively little oxygen to metabolize parts of the oil, minimizing their own environmental impact.

One doesn't have to agree about how well the containment or clean-up efforts were handled to note that large, complex systems sometimes can heal themselves rather well, despite our human failures.

$4B Cut in Verizon, AT&T Wireline Spending

Analyst Dan Burstein is a smart guy. He's taken a look at Verizon and AT&T capital spending and finds Verizon's wireline capital spending in the first six months of 2010 was $3.35 billion, down nearly $1billion from last year.

The numbers at AT&T are similar, he guesses. AT&T cut U-Verse spending by a third last year.

Dan says lots of carriers reduced capital investment in hopes the broadband stimulus funds could be used, instead of their own capital. That's undoubtedly true in many cases, but likely not for AT&T and Verizon, neither of which, as far as I can tell, applied for any funds.

Some of us might suggest other, entirely rational reasons for why that lower rate of investment might be happening.

A rational executive looking at where growth prospects are highest would logically conclude it lies in wireless, not wireline services. A rational investor might argue the returns are higher overseas than in the U.S. market.

A rational executive might conclude that users screaming for better mobile coverage for their iPhones have a valid point, and that investment has to be targeted in better facilities where those congestion problems are occurring.

Investment analysts for years have been pointing out that financial returns from fiber-to-customer investments do not appear high enough to justify too much investment. Analysts have pounded cable executives for years on that score, frowned on Verizon's fiber-to-home approach and generally have concluded that a less-intensive investment approach makes more sense.

One might argue that reasons such as those are substantial enough for prudence on the wireline investment front, without any need for nefarious motives.

One might also reasonably conclude that firms such as Verizon have concluded the financial return from such upgrades will in fact not provide a payback that is reasonable, leading to divestiture of rural lines and customers.

All of that lies within the realm of a normal strategic review of expected financial returns from capital investments, not to mention the need to raise cash for spectrum acquisitions and then construction of new fourth-generation networks.

Nobody has abundant and extra capital laying around, these days. Hard choices have to be made, and who could fault an executive for concluding their firms would do better shifting capital into the wireless network and services?

We might all agree on the facts, though we might disagree on how to explain the facts. 

Global mobile data traffic nearly triples over last year

Ericsson's latest measurements show mobile data grew 10 times faster than voice over the last year.

Mobile broadband currently accounts for only 10 percent of total mobile subscriptions but a rapidly increasing majority of the traffic.

Ericsson's measurement of actual traffic in networks around the world show that global mobile data has nearly tripled in the last year, growing more than 10 times faster than voice.

Mobile data traffic continues to grow exponentially even after the historic cross over point in December 2009 when data first exceeded voice.

According to Ericsson statistics, global measured mobile data traffic stands at nearly 225,000 terabytes per month as of the second quarter of 2010.

US energy use is dropping and shifting to renewables

Analysts at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore Labs have run the numbers on the US energy use in 2009, and come up with similar results to those obtained when examining the country's carbon emissions: energy use is dropping at a pace that is faster than would be expected based on the slowing economy alone.

Even better, the growth in renewable energy, coupled with increased use of natural gas, is displacing significant amounts of coal.

It seems not to be fashionable at this moment to argue people and organizations will act, on their own, to "go green," "recycle" or take any other set of desirable actions we might think of.

Yet, that is what people and organizations do, in markets where people are free to deploy their own resources, and where incentives exist to encourage the desired behaviors.

Voice Usage Relatively Stable in Most Age Cohorts, Except Those 34 and Younger

Voice usage per person is roughly stable in most age categories 35 and above, data from Nielsen suggests, at between 400 minutes to 900 minutes a month.

But voice usage per month seems to be dropping in the 34 and younger cohorts, even though younger users tend to have the highest usage, with activity declining steadily in every older age cohort.

Intensity of Texting Grows Over Time


The amount of texting people in just about every age category is increasing over time, as more messages originate and are responded to it that format, data from Nielsen suggests.

Voice Usage and Texting Trends Headed in Opposite Directions

You can see where this is going. Younger users text more than they talk, and though today's users 25 and above still talk more than they text, the usage pattern is uniform: younger age cohorts text more than older age cohorts.

So as each age cohort advances, one might predict that texting behavior will grow over time. How much it grows is the only real question.

Users 18 or younger actually"talk" about as much as users 55 to 64. One suspects an awful lot of "voice" activity is of the coordination and collaboration sort, so that younger and mid-life workers might be in work groups that require more coordination than workers 55 to 64.

Samsung's First Tablet is Coming

It's Fine to Disagree with Google-Verizon Net Neutrality Agreement, But Disagree with the Actual Agreement

Many critics are wrongly deriding the Google-Verizon agreement on network neutrality as a "two-tiered Internet," which he called "dead wrong," says Tom Tauke, Verizon's executive vice president of public affairs.

Tauke pointed out the the deal explictly prevents Verizon from offering anything other than "best effort" Internet, with no packet prioritization, on its fixed network.

Internet access then would remain a simple best effort access, with no "better" tiers of service allowable on Verizon's part. If application providers decide that is something they want to do, all initiative rests with them.

On the other hand, one can imagine many useful managed services that would benefit from quality-of-service measures. Broadband, in other words, is more than simple Internet access. It also is the platform for "tele-work, health-care monitoring, smart grids, smart transportation" and other services, Tauke said.

Some will argue the rules need to extend to wireless networks as well. It's fine to disagree with that part of the agreement. But it isn't correct to label the deal some sort of "tiered access" regime where it comes to the fixed network. That just isn't correct.

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Hulu Serves Up Most Video Ads

Hulu is where the most video ads are viewed, according to comScore. In fact, all of the top-10 sites where the most video ads are delivered feature professionally-produced content.

Dedicated Mobile TV Networks Losing to Web Delivery?

Disappointing adoption levels of existing mobile TV services, in large part because of competition from streamed mobile services, might indicate that special-purpose mobile TV networks do not have the appeal mobile Internet services and applications do, say researchers at Juniper Research.

The Juniper Research report found that the number of paying subscribers to networks based on standards such as DVB-H, DMB, CMMB and MediaFLO were not expected to exceed 10 million globally until 2013 at the earliest, by which time more than 180 million mobile customers will be subscribing to 3G/4G/WiFi enabled mobile TV services.

Kickstand for Smartphones

No kickstand on the back of your smartphone? Use a pair of glasses. It works if you are near-sighted. It probably won't work for the far-sighted unless the kickstand uses a separate pair.

New technology and applications require new physical capabilities. This helps when watching video. Or you could buy an HTC with a kickstand. A bit more elegant, but this is a great impromptu "retrofit."

How Many Screens Now are Relevant?

Not so long ago, "three screens" were the foundation of consumer multichannel video strategy, those screens being the TV, the PC and the mobile device. With the advent of the e-book reader, perhaps one can add a fourth screen. One can argue that the tablet PC now becomes a viable fifth screen.

There are probably other ways to conceive of "screens," some based on behavioral metrics or applications, rather than devices. Right now, though, it is virtually every other screen than the TV that is getting most of the attention, and rightly so.

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Virgin Mobile USA Aims Prepaid Mobile Broadband at Self Employed Workers

Virgin Mobile USA is aiming its new nationwide prepaid service at self-employed and independent workers.

The Broadband2Go family of mobile broadband products now includes a new $40 unlimited mobile broadband plan. The new offer replaces the previous $20, $40 and $60 plans, allowing consumers to access unlimited internet use at home or on-the-go for $40 per month. The $10 option for 100 MB, good for 10 days from purchase, remains for less frequent internet users.

A recent study from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the self-employed and independent workers represent approximately 30 percent of the nation’s workforce, Virgin Mobile USA notes. The study determined that this segment of the self-employed population, consisting mainly of small business owners and freelancers, represents a large market of consumers who need to stay connected, mainly with email and internet browsing, without the constraints of a contract.

That's one way to segment a market.

Multichannel Video Entertainment Business Loses Subscribers

Is it time to start talking about "plain old television" service, as we talk about "plain old telephone service"?

It might be just a bit early to say. We will need several more quarters of reports until we can say for sure.

But is seems likely something has changed. Multichannel video has been a legacy service for some time, as has POTS, but video has continued to grow subscriber counts, while landline voice lines have been contracting since about 2000 or 2001.

Magnifica Humanitis: Balancing AI and its Human Ends

Pope Leo XIV’s first encyclical Magnifica Humanitas , concerning artificial intelligence, already is widely compared to Rerum Novarum , iss...