Smart Phones Outsell Feature Phones in U.S. Market

It was only a matter of time before sales of smart phones eclipsed sales of feature phones, and according to Nielsen Wire, that time is now. It will take a while before the installed base of smart phones becomes a majority, but that, too, is inevitable.

$4 Billion North American Backhaul Market in 2015

The market for wholesale backhaul services in North America will grow from $2.45 billion in 2010 to $3.9 billion in 2015, with the majority of this growth coming from Ethernet backhaul, according to Yankee Group analyst Jennifer Pigg.

Average macrocell backhaul requirements were 10 Mbps in 2008 (seven T1s, five E1s). Today’s requirements are 35 Mbps in 2011, and by 2015, Yankee Group predicts they will demand 100 Mbps.
The Yankee Group analysis suggests 66 percent of rural cell towers support at least two mobile operators while suburban towers house up to six antennas, while urban towers can house 12 to 20 antennas, belonging to multiple operators and networks.

LightSquared GPS, Aeronautical Communications Interference Could Easily be Fatal

If you have been around spectrum policy long enough, you will early have learned that existing licensed users have enormous political leverage. So the fact that LightSquared interferes with both aeronautical communications and the GPS system could be a fatal problem. A spectrum owner simply will not be allowed to launch a new service that is shown to disrupt existing users, and given the public safety angles to both GPS and aeronautical communications, the demonstrated interference to both types of applications will continue to face a very-high burden of proof.

LightSquared believes it has solutions, but it will have to prove those solutions work to the satisfaction of the existing users who want certainty there will be no interference. Vacating spectrum closest to the GPS frequencies should help, in principle. The issue is that the transmitted power differences between LightSquared signals and GPS satellites is so enormous that even that protection could be problematic.

If adjacent signals transmit at equivalent levels, filters and spacing are effective. The issue for LightSquared is highly unequal transmitted power levels. Cellular networks such as LightSquared's transmit at much higher power than do satellite-based systems, as much as one billion times as high, according to some critics. In tests, the LTE network overwhelmed GPS receivers, such as in-car navigation systems, that were trying to lock on to weaker signals coming from GPS satellites.

GPS device sales total $20 billion per year, and about $3 trillion worth of commerce each year relies on the U.S.-built system, said Roy Kienitz, under secretary for policy at the U.S. Department of Transportation.

One initiative that would be endangered by LightSquared is NextGen, a new air traffic control system designed to improve safety that relies on GPS, Kienitz said. The Federal Aviation Administration and airline industry have already invested $8 billion in NextGen, he said.

LightSquared faces more turbulence over GPS - Computerworld

"Insane Demand" for Google+

Google wants a controlled launch of Google+, its suite of social applications. On June 29, 2011 it was allowing some users to give "invites" to people. Apparently so many people were signing up that Google had to close the invite process.

“We’ve shut down invite mechanism for the night. Insane demand,” Google’s head of social Vic Gundotra said. “We need to do this carefully, and in a controlled way.”

Google launched on June 28, 2011 to a small cadre of users. That the demand was strong enough for Google to turn off invites is telling. For Google, a company that has previously failed with social projects like Buzz and Wave, it’s a sign that consumers haven’t yet written it off when it comes to social services.

Google opens up, then closes Google invites due to “insane demand” | VentureBeat

U.S. Smart Phone Sales Eclipse Feature Phones

It was only a matter of time before sales of smart phones eclipsed sales of feature phones, and according to Nielsen Wire, that time is now. It will take a while before the installed base of smart phones becomes a majority, but that, too, is inevitable.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28237

Okay, You've Got "Google+": Now What?

Thanks to my daughter, I now have Google+. So the next issue is to figure out how to use it in a way that is different from Facebook, right after I get thorough all the hygenic stuff of loading up profile information and navigating a bit.

One thing is clear: I don't need another "Facebook" experience, where there is no ability easily to create natural groups around friends, family, work, interests and so forth.  That is what Google+ is supposed to fix. So before I start with "circles," I've got to figure out what "circles" make sense to me, and aren't already taken care of on Facebook.

Since Facebook now seems to be the repository for most friend, family, high school and college buddies and work associates, I'm not sure it makes sense to try and move those contacts over to Google+. But I can think of natural circles that I haven't pursued on Facebook that relate more to hobbies, intellectual interests and so forth, that might make much-better sense on Google+, as Google clearly intends.

I already notice a feature that reminds me of the way I track stuff I'm interested in, largely for work, up to this point. I rely heavily on RSS feeds for that sort of thing, but I notice Google+ has a "Sparks" function that allows a user to set up topics and subjects of interest, and then Sparks automatically creates a feed. Sort of like RSS, but drop-dead simple.

Now Banks are Worried About "Dumb Pipe"

Dickson Chu, who is leading Citi’s participation in the Google Wallet effort, says the bank understands its role in the coming era of mobile commerce. Citi intends to provide the secure payment piece to mobile wallets and other m-commerce offerings.

This “bank grade” payment service would be combined with the new mobile advertising-funded models planned by emerging m-commerce players, such as its partner Google.

Chu noted that banks are not the most innovative of organizations, something that sounds familiar if you work in the telecom business. He also warned that the evolving m-commerce landscape “must not relegate us to becoming a dumb pipe." That also sounds familiar.

Citi Exec: Banks Must Not Get Left Behind in Coming Era of M-Commerce

Businesses boost their Facebook Markeiting

Online advertising channels, ranging from search engines to social networks, are attracting larger budgets from businesses across the country, a recent report from IgnitionOne indicates. But it is Facebook that seems to be getting outsized traction. Facebook advertising spend is up 22 percent year over year on a same-client-basis, with impressions up 11 percent.

Facebook advertising also has experienced high rates of growth due to new marketer adoption in the past year, which contributed to a 280 percent increase in spend across all clients and 200 percent increase in impressions year over year.  Read more here.

While companies already using the popular social network for marketing purposes have increased budgets allocated to Facebook by 22 percent compared to last year, a growing number of companies have begun to integrate the social network into their marketing mix for the first time. Overall, IgnitionOne observed a 280 percent year-over-year increase in advertising spend. See Businesses boost their Facebook marketing efforts

Google "Transparency Report" Shows How Often Governments Ask Google to Remove Content, or Block Google Entirely

Sometimes Google has to remove content from its domain because government agencies around the world ask Google to do so.

Jun 2, 2011	Syria	All Google services inaccessible. [Source: Renesys]
Mar 28, 2011	Armenia	All Google services partially accessible. [Source: Guardian]
Mar 28, 2011	Georgia	All Google services partially accessible. [Source: Guardian]
Mar 3, 2011	Libya	All Google services inaccessible.
Mar 1, 2011	Turkey	Blogger partially accessible. [Source: TurkishPress]
Feb 18, 2011	Libya	All Google services inaccessible.
Feb 17, 2011	Libya	YouTube inaccessible.
Feb 8, 2011	Syria	YouTube accessible. [Source: BBC]
Jan 30, 2011	Iran	Google Videos inaccessible.
Jan 27, 2011	Egypt	All Google services inaccessible for 5 days during protests. [Source: Renesys]
Jan 26, 2011	Sudan	YouTube was partially accessible for 3 days.
Jun 3, 2010	Turkey	Adwords, Analytics and Docs inaccessible for a week during attempt to block YouTube. [Source: ONI]
May 20, 2010	Pakistan	YouTube inaccessible for 6 days due to concerns around the "Everyone Draw Mohammad Day" competition organized by a Facebook user. [Source: CNN]
Jun 13, 2009	Iran	YouTube inaccessible following disputed Presidential election. [Source: ONI]
Mar 23, 2009	China	YouTube inaccessible.
Mar 6, 2009	Bangladesh	YouTube inaccessible for 4 days due to controversial content. [Source: BBC]

All dates are given in Pacific time.

Read more here

Why Do People "Follow" or "Like" Brands on Social Networks?

Google's Zero Moment of Truth

The "zero moment of truth" is a marketing concept that deals with the amount of time that lapses between an advertising message and a consumer taking action on the message.

Here's an ebook Google put together about the concept and what it means for marketing and advertising.

Zero Moment of Truth E-Book

You can figure out why Google thinks the concept is important. To the extent there is latency between ad and action, Google thinks it can create quite a nice business reducing latency.

PayPal Sees End of Physical Wallets by 2015

"We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S., from your local corner store to Walmart," says Scott Thompson, PayPal president. "We will no longer need to carry a wallet."

The prediction came as PayPal announced it has reached 100 million active accounts.

PayPal believes that as the lines between online and offline commerce continue to blur, the payment industry’s model for is looking more and more like PayPal’s, says Sam Shrauger, PayPal VP. PayPal has been handling mobile payments since 2006, he says.

PayPal Crosses First 100 Million Active Accounts

Debit Card Fee Rules Issued by Federal Reserve

In a move that apparently settles a nettlesome issue directly affecting the fortunes of retail merchants and banks that issue debit cards (and which indirectly affects the attractiveness of new mobile payment systems built on a transaction fee revenue model), the Federal Reserve Board issued the final version of Regulation II, which sets new rules for debit card transactions. Retail trade groups and banking trade groups have been at odds over the final rules for months.

The “Final Rule” implements Section 1075 of the “Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act,” known as the Durbin Amendment.

The rules will go into effect on October 1, 2011 and sets a cap of 21 cents on transactions. That rate essentially lessens the financial sting for card-issuing banks, but also lowers fees for retailers. The original rules might have resulted in limits as low as seven cents per transaction, or as high as 12 cents per transaction.

The rule as adopted allows card issuers to charge up to 21 cents per transaction, plus five basis points of the transaction value. On a $40 transaction, this represents a 48 percent cut in revenue from current rates.

On the other hand, the worst-case scenario for banks would have called for a, which is a 75 percent cut in transaction revenues.

Aside from the direct impact on retailers and card-issuing banks, the rules also create a differently dimensioned revenue stream for any contestants in the mobile payments business that hope to make a business out of transaction fees.

Read more here

Wireless: Where We are Going

There weren’t any surprises in the Federal Communications Commission’s recent report on wireless competition, but one tidbit, already made available by the National Health Interview Survey, is an indicator of where things are going.

The number of adults who rely exclusively on mobile wireless for voice service has increased significantly in recent years. According to the January to June 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 24.9 percent of adults, or one in every four, lived in households with wireless phones only during the first half of 2010.

In its most recent study, the NHIS found that 30 percent of respondents only used mobile phones during the last half of 2010, an increase of three percentage points since the first half of 2010. In addition, about 16 percent of respondents indicated they received all or almost all calls on wireless telephones despite having a landline phone in the home as well.

More than half of adults aged 25 to 29 (54 percent) lived in households with only wireless telephones. This rate is greater than the rates for adults aged 18 to 24 (46 percent) or 30 to 34 (44 percent), according to the NHIS survey.

Read more here

Tablets Are Changing User Behavior

Today’s early tablet adopters are using print media, PCs, and other devices less often than they used to, according to Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst. Some 31 percent of tablet owners surveyed report they are using their PCs less, while 26 percent are using their notebooks or laptops less.

Of the tablet owners surveyed, 23 percent reported using their portable game player less, while 20 percent said they are using their iPod or MP3 player less. About 15 percent reported using their mobile phone less than they used to.

E-reader use seemed to be lower in about 11 percent of cases, while nine percent reported lower use of their game consoles. Some nine percent say they use television less.

Tablet early adopters, though arguably different from tomorrow’s mainstream adopters, nevertheless seemingly are changing their content habits as well, not just their hardware habits.

Of tablet owners surveyed by Forrester Research, 32 percent reported that their tablet use has been accompanied by less use of print newspapers. About 28 percent say they have reduced use of printed books, while 23 percent indicated they use print magazines less.

Tablets Are Changing User Behavior