AT&T Purchase of T-Mobile USA "Highly Likely" to be Approved

In the end, the U.S. Government is highly-likely to approve the AT&T/T-Mobile merger, despite the significant opposition, because of three over-riding realities: 1) market/financial realities, 2)DOJ legal/precedent realities, and 3) FCC public-interest realities, argues Scott Cleland of the Precursor Group. 

http://goo.gl/Op9GH

iPhone 5 to Come With Mobile Payment? With PayPal?

Apple's iPhone 5 not only will include mobile payments and near field communications capabilities, but also will feature a service offered in conjunction with PayPal, argues. Rod Farmer, co-founder of Mobile Experience.

PayPal has already extended its NFC support to Google’s Android while Google has already entered into an alliance with MasterCard and Citi for its Google Wallet service. PayPal has been talking more, of late, about the importance of retail mobile payments as a driver of its future growth.

iPhone 5 to Come With Mobile Payment, Working with PayPal?

Steve Perlman’s white paper explains “impossible” wireless tech | VentureBeat

With the caveat that when a talented engineer says something is "impossible," it means the speaker honestly believes something cannot be done, because "we cannot, with our known technology, do so." That might not be the same thing as saying "nobody else can do this." That might be the case for a new mobile bandwidth grooming approach championed by

Steve Perlman, who believes a different approach to bandwidth management could exceed "Shannon's Law" by about an order of magnitude.

Shannon’s Law is a rule of thumb about the theoretical capacity of any communications channel. But some might quip that "Shannon was wrong."

Perlman’s “distributed input distributed output” technology allows each wireless user on a network to use the full data capacity of shared spectrum, simultaneously with a bunch of other users. It claims to do so by eliminating interference between users sharing the same spectrum.

Critics will say it violates the laws of physics. But some of us have heard the best engineers in a field say such things in the past, only to be proven wrong. I was once at a meeting of top engineers from the broadcast and cable TV industry hear a proposal from Telecommunications Inc. (TCI) that would allow delivery of high-definition television in 6 megahertz of bandwidth. The room essentially exploded into disbelief, as the current proposals then in circulation suggested it would take 20 MHz to deliver HDTV.

As it turned out, TCI was right, and HDTV now is delivered in 6 MHz.

On another occasion, I was quietly informed by some very senior Bell Laboratories engineers that an analog fiber optic access network "could not" deliver 40 cable TV signals, as cable industry engineers were saying was a minimum requirement for cable network fiber optic access systems. The reason for the belief was that lasers capable of doing so could not be produced.

As it turns out, it was entirely possible to produce lasers with characteristics that would allow delivery of 40 channels of analog TV on a single laser, at reasonable distances. When those engineers said "it could not be done," what they meant was that "we cannot do so."

That doesn't mean that all such "impossible feats" actually result in commercially-significant deployments. But one has to translate. When somebody says "something cannot be done," that sometimes only means "we cannot do that." There's a big difference. Sometimes, the smart guys just aren't aware that somebody else might be able to do something formerly regarded as "impossible" or a violation of the laws of physics.

Steve Perlman’s white paper explains “impossible” wireless tech

PayPal: 12M monthly users are paying for Facebook games

More than 12 million unique users pay for games each month on Facebook, according to data released for the first time today by digital payments vendor PayPal. That’s about 1.6 percent of the 750 million users on Facebook, but it’s enough to create a big social game industry with giants such as Zynga, which generates hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue per quarter.

PayPal: 12M monthly users are paying for Facebook games

Apple Lawsuit Delays Samsung Galaxy Tab Launch in Australia

Apple and Samsung are battling it out in court in several jurisdictions, including the United States, South Korea and now, Australia, over claims that certain Samsung devices, such as the Galaxy Tab 10.1, violate a number of Apple patents. 

Samsung has agreed to hold off bringing the Galaxy Tab 10.1 to Australia until it resolves its patent lawsuit with Apple. Given the time it typically takes to resolve such disputes, and the limited time any particular device or software load can be sold in any market, it is conceivable that the unresolved lawsuit could mean only subsequent generations of the device will be available in Australia or other markets.

No matter what the ultimate outcome, the lawsuit already is delaying Samsung product launches. Patent infringement lawsuits are a weapon of business warfare in several ways. Long term, such lawsuits can create revenue streams for one set of contestants, while raising manufacturing costs for rivals. In the short term, the lawsuits can upset product launch plans, and impede or destroy revenue prospects for a device, or generation of software.

Apple Lawsuit Delays Samsung Galaxy Tab Launch in Australia

U.K. Already Heading for "Double Dip" Recession, Will U.S. Follow?

Some people continue to insist the U.S. economy is not headed into another recession, creating a "double dip" recession. Others say a new recession is coming.

We can't say yet, but there's bad news from the United Kingdom, where the "Retail Health Index" already shows business activity dropping, which if replicated for the entire U.K. economy, would trigger a formal recession condition. UK Retail is now firmly back in recession says Retail Think Tank 

So far, the U.S. economy has not actually fallen for one full quarter, let along two, but it is growing at a historically weak level, compared to past recessions. And some already think the U.S. economy is headed for a double dip.

"Amid all the absurd posturing over raising the debt ceiling comes some real news—and it’s very bad," says the New Yorker. "According to new government figures, the economy has hardly grown at all in 2011."

"The recovery that began in early 2009 is now officially stalled," the New Yorker says. "Some economists will quibble, but I think it is fair to say that the dreaded double-dip recession is at hand," argues John Cassidy.

When healthy, the American economy grows at an annual rate of close to three per cent. The Commerce Department’s latest report on the gross domestic product shows that between April and June 2011, it expanded at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, and between January and March it grew at an annual rate of just 0.4 per cent.

The first-quarter figure is particularly stunning. Previously, the Commerce Department had estimated growth in the period at 1.9 per cent. Some think there will be a similar downward revision to the second-quarter figures.
Read more here.

it may turn out that we’re already in one, according to a pair of economists at Moody's Capital Markets Research Group. Read more here.

U.K. retail executives expect the trend to continue in the third quarter. The most recent quarterly reports from a number of European telecom providers also could suggest economic softening.

U.S. Steps Up Probe of Nortel Patent Deal

Apparently the U.S. Justice Department thinks there might be anti-competitive implications in the recent sale of Nortel patents to a consortium of firms including Apple, Microsoft and Research in Motion, the Wall Street Journal reports.

A consortium of six companies last month paid $4.5 billion to acquire a portfolio of 6,000 patents auctioned by the bankrupt Canadian telecom equipment maker Nortel Networks Corp. Google had made an initial bid of $900 million.

The Wall Street Journal says some observers were "stunned" at the sales price, which has raised Justice Department concern about what return the bidders expect on the investment.

U.S. Steps Up Probe of Nortel Patent Deal - WSJ.com (subscription required)

Recently, some Android handset manufacturers reportedly have agreed to pay Microsoft $5 per device in licensing fees, perhaps raising speculation that Google's rivals think they can impose more costs on Android handset manufacturers. http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2011/07/patent-issues-for-android-growing.html.

The Nortel patents cover an extensive array of mobile-related functions, especially related to fourth-generation mobile networks and devices, apparently. http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2011/05/nortel-nears-libuidation.html

Wired Looks at Who Wins Social Media Wars

How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?

In 2016, ABI Research forecasts that there will be 103 million 4G wholesale subscribers, served by mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) that buy capacity and services from a facilities-based provider and then retail services under their own brand names.

ABI Research estimates there were about 3.8 million 4G wholesale subscribers in 2010.

Other forecasts suggest lower adoption. Separately, Ovum forecasts that global MVNO connections will reach 85.6 million by 2015, and revenues are expected to be $9.5 billion. In other words, ABI Research believes there will be more 4G MVNO customers than Ovum believes will exist in the entire MVNO market, including the much-larger 3G market.

Over the next five years, new MVNO markets are expected to open up in South and Central America, Asia-Pacific, and in the Middle East. However, there are still regulatory and market challenges to overcome before these markets can offer an environment that can sustain MVNO activity.

Therefore, Ovum expects the bulk of MVNO connections and revenue growth from 2010 to 2015 will come from established MVNO markets in Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America.

How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?

Why You Should Switch to GMail

Application Usage Rules of Thumb

"One fairly common 'law of web and mobile physics' is the ratio of registered users or downloads to monthly actives, daily actives, and max concurrent users (for services that have a real time component to them), says venture capitalist Fred Wilson. "I call this ratio 30/10/10 and so many services that we see exhibit it within a few percentage points here and there."

What Wilson sees is that, for most providers, 30 percent of the registered users or number of downloads (if its a mobile app) will use the service each month. About 10 percent of the registered users or number of downloads (if its a mobile app) will use the service each day.

The maximum number of concurrent users of a real-time service will be 10 percent of the number of daily users.

A VC: 30/10/10

Mobile Has To Re-Think The "Ad"

Necessity is the mother of invention, and that is likely to be true for mobile advertising as well. Because of constraints on-screen size, display ads will not be the preferred or logical format, many would argue. That might explain why there is so much activity around e-commerce, coupons, promotional messages and other "non-traditional" marketing and advertising formats being tried in the mobile business.

Mobile Has The Opportunity To Re-Think The Ad

A Brief History of Apple Not Buying Things

For years, Apple has confounded the rest of us by not buying things that it should clearly be buying. Not purchasing other well-known companies is so core to Apple’s strategy that it must have a whole department devoted to non-mergers and un-acquisitions, whimsically argues Harry McCracken, editor of Technologizer

It's just part of Apple's culture, as making and integrating acquisitions is part of Cisco's culture, or how some other companies seem to make acquisitions whose value is destroyed after the acquisitions.

So a recent speculation that Apple might buy Barnes & Noble would likely wind up being the latest rumor not to prove accurage.

A Brief History of Apple Not Buying Things

Microsoft Spoofs Gmail

 Microsoft is sparring with Google about email privacy.

The purpose of this spoof video, apparently, is position Office 365 as more secure in the email area.

Why 'Apps' Will Not be a Major Opportunity for Telcos

To give you some idea of how hard it actually is for a large communications carrier to create a new line of business that has a meaningful impact on revenue, consider an analysis Tristan Louis at TNL.net recently conducted.

He took a look at valuations and implied average revenue per user for some of the leading Internet companies, including Pandora, LinkedIn, Groupon, LivingSocial and Zynga.

His analysis suggests it is possible to generate between $3.57 and $4.58 per user per year. By the same token, it could be possible that a user is worth between $106.46 and $126.24 over the user’s lifetime to a publicly traded web 2.0 company.

But assuming such deals were contemplated, you can see the problem. Even if a telco could somehow create enough value for any of these services to create a role in the revenue stream, the net result is that the effort is more trouble than it really is worth.

Assume an average of $4.25 annual revenue per user. Assume a telco could create enough value to warrant a revenue share of five percent of gross revenue. That would imply annual incremental revenue of 21 cents a year, or less than two cents a month, per subscriber.

If one assumes a large telco has to see a top-line revenue opportunity of roughly $1 billion to bother chasing the opportunity, one typically has to assume revenue potential in the dollars a month per subscriber range, ranging in many cases from $10 to $20 per user, per month, to be reach that level of significance.

Why 'Apps' Will Not be a Major Opportunity for Telcos