Bigger Screens Drive More Transactions

To the extent that larger screens are more conducive to many types of commerce operations and transactions, it is not surprising that actual transactions seem to happen more frequently on tablets than smart phones.

Tablet and smart phone ads seem to lead to later transactions conducted on PCs. There are differences, though.  Tablet and smart phone owners in Germany, Italy and the U.K. are more likely than American device owners to make a purchase online using a PC, after viewing an ad on their tablet or smart phone, according to new research from Nielsen. 

Italian device owners are the most likely to click on an ad to seek out further information on a product advertised on their tablet or smart phone.

Americans are the least likely to make a purchase on their smart phone after viewing an ad. 

But U.S. tablet owners are more likely to click on a mobile ad or search for more information after viewing a mobile ad than U.S. smart phone owners.

AT&T Caps Unlimited Data Plans

Some 17 million AT&T subscribers might be affected by new AT&T bandwidth caps that end unlimited smart phone plans, even for customers that had been grandfathered under older plans. 


Subscribers who were grandfathered into $30-a-month unlimited plans will find that their download speeds will be cut back if they use more than three gigabytes of data a month. It also appears the new limits will apply to users on family plans as well. 

Retailers Want Their Own Mobile Payment System

As if the mobile payments business were not complicated enough, a consortium of about 24 major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores and Target, are developing their own mobile payments system.

That move illustrates the complex nature of the mobile payments business, where formerly distinct industries strive to grab leadership in a new business that necessarily has to include retailers and end users, but remains unsettled in terms of the roles of banks, transaction processors, devices, application and service providers. Retailers Join Payment Chase

Google: Wallet expanding to 10 more Sprint devices this year - FierceMobileContent

Sprint Nextel will introduce "at least 10 additional phones" with support for Google Wallet in 2012. That's important since mobile payments is a scale game, and limited availability of Google Wallet on specific and popular handsets inhibits attainment of scale. Google Wallet on 10 more Sprint devices

Some 22 of the largest U.S. retail chains now support the Google Wallet, Google says, implying a base of 300,000-plus MasterCard PayPass-enabled merchant terminals able to accept Google Wallet.

Still, there is some element of the dot com frenzy to "get bigger faster."

U.S. Smart Phone Ownership 46%

Some 46 percent of American adults are smartphone owners as of February 2012, an increase of 11 percentage points over the 35 percent of Americans who owned a smartphone in May 2011, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.


Some 20 percent of cell owners now describe their phone as an Android device, up from 15 percent in May 2011. About 19 percent of cell owners now describe their phone as an iPhone, up from 10% in May 2011.


Some six percent of mobile device owners now describe the phone as a Blackberry, down from 10 percent in May 2011. 

The proportion of cell owners describing their phone as a Windows (two percent) or Palm (one percent) device is unchanged since the last time we asked this question in May 2011.

What's the "Best" Way to Charge for Bandwidth?

Comcast recently reiterated that it has no current interest in usage-based billing for consumer broadband access. Time Warner Cable has tended to support the notion. Telco executives tend to favor usage-based billing, as that is the industry legacy and mainstay.


But there are differences. Tier one service providers tend to be much more strongly favor in favor of charging customers for data on a usage basis than tier two and tier three service providers.

In large part, such discussion of retail packaging is happening because volume growth for broadband access services, especially on mobile networks, threatens to outstrip supply.


That's one compelling reason why mobile service providers might like to manage peak-hour traffic more gracefully, possibly by using charging mechanisms to create incentives for off-peak consumption.

In principle, one might argue that capacity upgrades “solve” the problem. That might be true, but only to the extent that capital investment is offset by revenue gains. If not, service providers ultimately will fail. And consumers have proven highly resistant to price hikes. 


Mobile service providers almost universally are moving to data usage caps, as one immediate step.
If data caps do not work to manage mobile network peak hour traffic loads, what does? The answers will vary from country to country, and are different on mobile and fixed networks.

U.S. mobile operators have different tools, including Wi-Fi and small-cell offload, policy, content optimization and QoS-based tiering. Those tools are not available to fixed-network operators, at least if current “network neutrality” rules survive legal challenge.

In some markets, “transparency” is required, but traffic management, including traffic shaping, can be employed. Ofcom rules

In Canada, both fixed line and mobile service providers have more freedom than U.S. ISPs. Though regulators say “the best remedy for network congestion is investment in new infrastructure,” the second choice is economic incentives.


Internet traffic management practices such as charging more for higher speeds, are one way to generate incremental revenue to support incremental investment, says Konrad von Finckenstein, Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission chairman. But other tools likely will be required, as well.

Eventually, to fully benefit from traffic management tools, mobile operators will have to move to real-time, cell-level traffic management in the radio access network, Monica Paolini of Senza Fili Consulting argues. Policy-based management will be needed

U.S. network neutrality rules do not absolutely prohibit such measures in the mobile network, though fixed-line operators basically are stuck with rules that mandate complete “best effort only” access.

Paolini argues that mobile operators will need to actually act ahead of time, using predictive data to prevent congestion, especially when due to unexpected traffic spikes. That sounds appealing in principle, but adds new cost and complexity to carrier operations

“Most mobile operators I talked to would rather avoid this and reasonably so,” she says. “Tracking and acting traffic in real-time at the cell level inevitably adds complexity.”

Such are the tensions between the desire for operational simplicity, consumer friendly pricing and packaging, and the desire for more-sophisticated end-user features. Likewise, there is a tension between the ability to manage networks simply, and the desire to manage them with greater sophistication.

In truth, consumers, regulators and service providers are “conflicted” to some degree about balancing simplicity and variety. Users want understandable plans, fair pricing and clear billing statements. But they also might want differentiated experiences.

Service providers want simpler operations, but also greater sophistication in terms of ability to create and package new and existing products. The tension probably cannot be eliminated.

Mobile Search is Universal, Local Shopping is Going to Be

Google is big on mobile commerce, for any number of reasons, Mobile represents the biggest advertising revenue stream nobody yet dominates. And mobile commerce represents potentially the biggest change in retailing since the advent of online shopping. 

Across most of six markets, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain and Japan, roughly 60 percent of smart phone users are searching because of an ad they’ve seen offline or in a store.


Another reason is big on mobile and smart phones is that mobile users search while on smart phones. 



Some 99 percent of smart phone users in Japan have used a search engine on mobile.


This means that practically everyone who’s gone online on mobile has searched on their phone.


Mobile search is a frequent activity. In most of these six countries more than 75 percent of smartphone Internet users search at least once a week.

The study suggests 92 percent of Americans use their smart phones to look for information about local businesses or services.


More to the point, those searchers take action. Some 81 percent of French smart phone users who’ve looked for local information then acted on it with a quarter (26 percent) having called the business and 43 percent having visited the business.


Globally, one out if five smartphone users in all six countries made a purchase after looking for local information, whether in-store or online. Mobile commerce study

We Don't Have a Mobile Payment Problem; We Have a Mobile Shopping Problem

“Consumers don’t really have a mobile payment problem,” says Jack Stephenson, director of mobile, e-commerce and payments at JP Morgan Chase. “Ninety-five percent of the time, paying with cash and credit cards actually works pretty well. Consumers have a mobile shopping problem. There’s a difference. ” Mobile Shopping Problem

You might say roughly the same for retailers. They don't have a mobile payment problem, either. Retailers only have a mobile sales problem. And though it is a legitimate argument that no mobile payment scheme really succeeds without consumer adoption, neither does mobile payments succeed without retail merchant adoption. 


On the other hand, all existing stakeholders in the payments revenue stream are trying to figure out how to make themselves indispensable in a new mobile payments value chain, so that the risk of being relegated to a smaller role, or no role, is minimized.

That's one reason JPMorgan Chase & Co. might have invested in GoPago, a provider of a free smart phone application that allows consumers to browse, order, and pay for local goods and services. 

Businesses benefit by being able to easily set up mobile storefronts and the rich data and analytics GoPago provides helps them better target special offers to drive sales. The problem Chase is trying to solve, in other words, is brick and mortar retailer need to increase online sales.

Later in 2012, Chase’s customers will have the opportunity to create a free mobile storefront through GoPago, extending their reach to a broader audience and providing business tools once only afforded by large companies. In addition to the standard benefits of GoPago, Chase cardholders that use GoPago will receive exclusive offers and discounts from Chase merchants.

“Online commerce offers a number of opportunities to local business,” said Leo Rocco, CEO and founder, GoPago. 


The point here is that Chase is not trying to solve a "how do I pay by mobile phone in the store" problem. It is trying to solve a "how do I extend my retail sales into the online realm" problem. 

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HTC Jewel for Sprint?

HTC's new line of "One" devices coming to Verizon Wireless and AT&T networks obviously raises the question of what might be coming for Sprint, which has been selling HTC Evo devices for a couple of years.

Some speculate the device is codenamed the "HTC Jewel."

Presumably the Sprint version will feature the  large screen Evos have sported, with the same high-definition display.

Sprint has tended to release a new Evo model every year, about March, so it might not be unusual if any new "One" device appeared about that time.  HTC Jewel

Facebook, 30 Companies Want to Create Web Platform for Mobile Apps

A coalition of 30 technology companies hopes to turn the Web into a competitive platform for building mobile applications. They have launched a Core Mobile Web Platform (coremob) community group through the W3C to provide a venue for collaborating on next-generation mobile Web standards.


Facebook and Mozilla are among the leading members of the group. The effort to make the mobile Web a competitive app platform represents one more challenge to service provider and app store "control" or influence over mobile applications.

Facebook also announced the release of Ringmark, a test suite for evaluating the capabilities of mobile Web browsers. 


The tests will help developers make informed decisions about what features they can safely use in various mobile Web environments. Facebook hopes such information will help developers create browser-based apps that run as fast, and as well, as native apps. 


The business implications are clear enough. Mobile apps need app stores to succeed. App stores are run by "somebody else." By creating fast-executing mobile apps, application developers gain freedom from app stores, service providers or device manufacturers. 

Will IMS Fail? In Other Words, Does OTT Win?

If you have been in the telecom business long enough, you have seen a few different "next generation networks" come and go with somewhat mixed market success. 


ISDN was, for some, the first such network. Then there was B-ISDN, known better as "asynchronous transfer mode." 


Then there is IP Multimedia Subsystem, whose ultimate success seems yet uncertain, if its fundamental architecture and goals certainly will be a foundation of future networks. 


And now there is Rich Communications Suite, which builds on IMS. Observers might further note that picture messaging, essentially a broadband version of text messaging, likewise has failed to garner much success.


Pessimists might point out that, so far, none of the would-be "next generation networks" has been a raging success.

To be sure, the functions often are accomplished, but sometimes in other ways. Who would have guessed that a "legacy" protocol such as IP would become, as much as anything else, the "next generation network," in large part.

Optimists keep trying, as standards, whether created by the market, or by standards bodies, are crucial for the global telecom business.

Tyntec is the company Thorsten Trapp formed to provide products based on the mobile industry’s Signalling Connection Control Part protocol used by GSM networks.

Apparently, Tyntec's software is what allows Pinger to provide over the top text messaging services. And Trapp apparently doesn't have much confidence that some of the newer proposed architectures are going to succeed.

Specifically, he is doubtful that IMS or RCS will succeed. The issue is why he believes that. Without widespread handset support it’s not going to become ubiquitous, and even if it does, users will be hit by roaming costs and interoperability issues.

But OTT players merely need an IP connection for their apps.Will RCS Fail? It's a challenging notion, but not historically unprecedented.

There will be standards. The only issue is which standards, and how they eventually take hold. In recent decades it has been "the market" more than the standards bodies that have succeeded.

Vodafone, Visa Form Mobile Payment Partnership

Vodafone Group is launching a mobile payments venture with Visa, using near field communications and Visa prepaid accounts to let customers pay for goods and services with their mobile phones.


Vodafone, the world's largest telecom company by revenue, said the companies will work together to develop Vodafone-branded services to the U.K. company's base of 398 million customers in more than 30 countries. 


These services will be launched later this year in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Turkey and the U.K., with rollouts elsewhere in Vodafone's global portfolio to follow.



NFC-enabled phones currently on the market include Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s (005930.SE) Galaxy S II and Nokia Corp.'s (NOK) 700 model. Vodafone, Visa Form Mobile Payment Partnership

Mobile Banking Grows, Fiserv Finds

As other studies also have shown, consumer use of mobile banking, and willingness to use mobile banking services, continue to grow, a new study sponsored by Fiserv has found.

When asked if they had used a mobile banking service in the past month, one out of four online households stated they had, and those that use other digital services such as online banking, bill pay or e-bills, were even more likely to have used a mobile banking service.

Some 30 percent of both online banking and bill pay users had used mobile banking while 44 percent of e-bill recipients had used the service.

The majority (60 percent) of mobile bankers used the mobile browser on their phone to access their mobile banking service; 41 percent used a downloadable application (app); and 32 percent accessed the service through text messaging.

According to the survey, 40 percent of mobile banking users have paid a bill using their mobile phone as compared to 28 percent in 2010. Some 32 percent used their mobile phone to transfer money versus 25 percent in 2010.

As some other surveys have found, many users trust their financial institutions more than other entities. Some 40 percent of mobile phone users said they would trust their bank or credit union to handle mobile payments, followed by PayPal at 35 percent and Visa at 33 percent.

Nearly one in five consumers currently owns a tablet and this figure is expected to increase rapidly, which means tablets soon will be a bigger factor in mobile banking and transactions,  the study found.

According to the survey, 19 percent of online households currently own a tablet and another 20 percent expect to purchase a tablet, which means almost 40 percent of online households could own a tablet by mid 2012. In addition, multiple tablet households are emerging, with 37 percent of households that already own a tablet stating that they plan to buy another.

According to the survey, both current and future tablet owners are interested in using their tablet to access financial services. About 44  percent of existing tablet owners have used their tablet to access online banking, already.

In addition, 45 percent of existing tablet owners and future owners are interested in using their tablet for banking.

When Will Mobile Service Providers Get into Mobile Advertising?

By the end of 2011, eMarketer estimated late in 2011, 38 percent of US mobile users would have a smart phone and 41 percent  will use the mobile Internet at least once each month. Both of those trends are a necessary, but not sufficient foundation for mobile advertising, which is a fast-growing but highly fragmented and still small portion of overall ad spending and even of online ad spending.

That fragmentation explains why, even though many tier-one mobile service providers have undertaken internal reviews of growth opportunities, and have identified mobile advertising as among the handful of new businesses that could generate a significant new revenue stream for a tier one carrier, few have made significant moves yet.

The issue is simply that it is hard to "move the revenue needle" for any business already booking annual revenues in the scores of billions. When that is the case, a “small revenue opportunity” of scores of millions does not materially change business results. That necessarily means large tier-one service providers must look for new revenue opportunities that have the ability to produce $1 billion or more each year, for every major contestant.

Mobile advertising, though a logical “line extension” strategy for mobile service providers, does not yet make sense for a tier-one service provider. Even as mobile advertising hits the billion dollar mark, it remains below that threshold, at least for a tier-one mobile service provider.

That will change someday, but not really soon. A potential acquirer will want to see $100 million in current revenue, with a growth pattern suggesting $1 billion can be reached within five years, ideally.

eMarketer, for example, estimates that advertisers will spend nearly $1.23 billion on mobile advertising this year in the United States, up from $743 million last year and set to reach almost $4.4 billion by 2015.

This includes mobile display ad spending  (such as banners, rich media and video), search and messaging-based advertising, and covers ads viewed on both mobile phones and tablets.

This year, messaging-based formats still take the largest piece of the pie, accounting for $442.6 million in spending. But in 2012, banners and rich media will be even with search, each getting 33% of spending, or $594.8 million. That will put them ahead of messaging, which will fall to just 28.2% of all mobile ad spending next year. By 2015, banners and rich media and search will dominate further, and messaging will have shrunk to 14.4 percent of the total—though still growing in terms of dollars.

Video is the fastest-growing mobile ad format, but from the smallest base. Mobile video ad spending, at $57.6 million this year, will grow at a compound annual rate of 69% between 2010 and 2015 to reach $395.6 million.

Mobile advertising is growing really fast, at a 75-percent rate between 2009 and 2010, followed by socal media with a 32-percent growth rate over the same period, but from a very-low base. But television advertising continues to claim the greatest share of advertising spending, and had 11-percent growth between 2009 and 2010.

Who Wins Wallet Wars?

The existence of mobile wallet services operated by Google, PayPal and Isis raises an obvious question: which contestants will “win” the battle to become the dominant or leading wallet services? In principle, one might argue that over-the-top application providers, mobile service providers, clearinghouse networks such as Visa or MasterCard, banks or other payment specialists could emerge as the leading providers of such services.

Researchers at ABI Research say it is the likes of Google and Apple that ultimately will lead the market, though mobile service providers are highly likely to claim the most share initially.

While mobile service providers will havethe majority of NFC-based mobile wallet users early on, their market share will erode between 2012 and 2016 as Google and Apple assume greater share.

“By the end of 2012, Google will prove that Google Wallet is a hit with consumers,” says Mark Beccue, ABI Research senior analyst. “By 2014, we will see Google Wallets supported alongside competing MNO offerings globally.”

Mobile service providers might have 75 percent mobile wallet share in 2012, shrinking to 63 percent in 2016.  Over the top providers will win wallet war

Google Wallet also will succeed in markets where mobile service providers prefer not to spend capital to develop and support mobile wallet infrastructure. In such cases, application providers such as Google, Apple and others will have an advantage.

Though Apple is not yet in the market, ABI Research believes Apple will enter the market. “Apple will launch a mobile wallet product in 2012,” Beccue argues.

ABI Research also predicts that near field communications will support 594 million users in 2016.

That is not to say banks, payment providers or merchants will fail to attempt their own offerings. Starbucks, for example, operates one of the most-successful mobile wallet and payment programs in 2011.

In most cases, such efforts will have suffered in the face of successful programs offered by the likes of Google, Apple and the mobile service providers, ABI Research believes. Who wins wallet war?

Apple has yet to launch a mobile payment service, though it is widely believed from patents and whispers in the corners of the industry that the company will equip its iPhones with payment-enabling NFC sensors and software in 2012.

As with Google and its carrier partners, AT&T and Verizon will allow Apple to offer its mobile wallet to consumers who have iPhones, regardless of whether or not the carrier has a competing mobile wallet, Beccue noted.

Still, most observers believe PayPal says 2016 will be the year when some industry executives believe U.K. shoppers will be able to use their mobile phones to shop, instead of using cash, checks or credit and debit cards.

PayPal’s conclusions are based on a Forrester Consulting survey of 10 senior executives from major U.K. retailers and other businesses.

Some 49 percent of mobile buyers surveyed by Forrester Consulting use their mobile phones to purchase products at least once every three months.

“By 2016, you’ll be able to leave your wallet at home and use your mobile as the 21st century digital wallet,” says Carl Scheible, Managing Director of PayPal UK.

“We’re not saying cash will disappear entirely, but we’ll increasingly use our phones and other devices rather than our wallets to pay in-store as well as online,” argues Scheible. 2016 key for U.K. mobile payments

Some might even argue  that mobile wallet functions will have more substantial impact on the retail shopping experience, however. “Payment” using a mobile device might be the least-important new reason people use new mobile commerce applications.

In fact, some might argue, consumers will be using mobile payment apps because the value of the mobile wallet offers clear value.

“PayPal’s vision is a one-stop shop for retailers to engage their customers directly during every part of the shopping lifecycle, generating demand from consumers through location-based offers, making payments accessible from any device, not just from the mobile phone, and offering more flexibility to customers even after they’ve checked out,” Scheible says.

“As well as paying for goods without having to queue, the report reveals shoppers can look forward to being able to carry digital loyalty cards, promotional offers and receipts on their phones – keeping everything in one place creating a virtual shopping hub,” PayPal says.