Global Telecom Industry Has Made a Historic Leap in Serving People in Developing Regions

 A high-level study sponsored by Alcatel-Lucent and conducted by the ENPC (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech) illustrates an important and historic change in global communications, especially the decades-long effort to figure out how to provide communications to billions of human beings who had not previously “made a phone call,” much less “used the Internet.”

In recent years, the concern has shifted dramatically to mobile service for the “next billion” people, or Internet for the next billion people, where in the 1960s and 1970s the issue was providing “phone service” to the “next billion” users in developing countries.

What has gone somewhat unnoticed is the truly stunning progress, globally, in getting communications services to users in developing regions, where once policy makers struggled to anticipate how that could be done with legacy technology, namely fixed networks.

Without too much fanfare, the answers have emerged organically from use of mobile and Internet technologies.

With six billion mobile users globally in 2011, usage of mobile phones has become a truly planetary phenomenon, and has largely erased the “divide” between people in developed countries and people in developing countries, in terms of ability to use communications.

Call Volumes Fall, on Both Fixed and Mobile Networks in U.K.

Overall time spent using voice communications fell by five percent in 2011, Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, reports.

“This reflects a 10 percent fall in the volume of calls from landlines, and for the first time, ever, a fall in the volume of mobile calls by just over one percent, in 2011,” Ofcom says.

According to Ofcom, 96 percent users 16 to 24 are using some form of text based application on a daily basis to communicate with friends and family; with 90 percent using texts and nearly three quarters (73 percent) using social networking sites.

By comparison, talking on the phone is less popular among this younger age group, with 67 percent making mobile phone calls on a daily basis, and only 63 percent talking face to face.

Is Cablevision Clearband or OMGFast the Opening Gambit of a Historic Move?

Cablevision apparently is selling a fixed wireless broadband Internet and telephone service in Florida, using the Clearband or OMGFast brand names, charging subscribers $29.95 monthly for a 50 Mbps Internet connection that competes with Comcast and Time Warner Cable, at least in the voice and broadband access areas.  


Moreover, Cablevision also appears to own  licenses in 45 total markets. Cablevision acquired MVDDS licenses in 45 markets in 2004, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Miami, Cleveland, Nashville, and Tampa-St. Petersburg. 


Federal Communications Commission cross-ownership rules likely would require that Cablevision sell the New York license, or limit its broadband wireless service to parts of the market in which it doesn't market its Optimum digital cable, phone and Internet products to subscribers.

Cablevision, almost singularly among top U.S. cable operators, thus appears ready to break ranks in a major way with its other top U.S. cable operators in respecting an informal "we don't compete with each other" understanding.


It wouldn't be the first time. Cablevision in the past has backed satellite direct broadcasting efforts that would similarly have competed with cable operators around the United States.  


It isn't clear what Cablevision might be thinking about operations elsewhere. But if Cablevision decides to "overbuild" in some or all of its other areas, it would be historic, marking the first time a top-10 U.S. cable operator has decided to compete with other cable operators in their franchise areas. 

U.K. Service Provider Revenue Shows Need for New Lines of Business

Industry trends in the United Kingdom illustrate just how important new revenue sources already have become, in a business some of us expect will lose fully half its current revenue over about a decade’s time.You might argue that U.K. service provider revenue has been largely flat since about 2006, for example.

Total U.K. telecom service revenue declined for the third successive year in 2011, falling by £0.8 billion (1.9 percent) to £39.7 billion, Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, reports.

In large part, that might be because household spend on communication services fell from £110.50 in 2006 to £97.62 in 2011, representing a monthly decline of £12.88, or £154.56 per year. Average monthly household spend on telecoms services fell to £65.04 in 2011, a £3.02 a month (4.4 percent) fall in real terms.

Retail revenues increased by £0.1 billion to £31.0 billion during the year, despite a £0.2 billion increase in fixed internet revenues. Neither of those changes is particularly large in magnitude, but the key figure is the increase in fixed network Internet revenues, since broadband access has been the most-recent “new service” added to fixed network menus.

A similar rise in corporate data service revenues and a £0.1 billion increase in retail revenues from mobile voice and data services were offset by a £0.5 billion fall in fixed network calling and access revenues.

Much of the shortfall came from the wholesale segment, as revenues fell by £0.9 billion (8.9 percent) in 2011. That illustrates the near-term impact regulatory changes can have. The European Commission, for example, recently has mandated reductions in wholesale roaming charges for mobile services. 

Gmail by Text Message in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya

Google has launched Gmail SMS in Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya. Users in those countries now can send and receive emails as SMS messages using a mobile phone, regardless of whether or not your phone has an Internet connection of any kind.

Gmail SMS works on any phone, even the most basic ones which only support voice and SMS.

AT&T to Offer Family Mobile Data Plans in August 2012

AT&T is introducing family mobile data plans, as expected, starting in late August 2012. As Verizon Wireless already has done, AT&T is executing a bit of a historic shift in retail packaging.

Where once it was voice and texting services that were offered on a usage basis, now under both Verizon Wireless and AT&T plans, both domestic texting and voice services are unlimited and usage insensitive.

Instead, it is mobile broadband that becomes the primary usage-sensitive service, using the same “bucket of use” concept long used for voice and text messaging services.

That shift reflects the historic shift of revenue opportunities within the mobile and fixed network businesses. For starters, there now are growing numbers of over the top voice and messaging options that do not require purchase of a “voice” or “texting” plan from a service provider. That means voice and messaging revenue is going to decline, over time.

Also, as consumers shift their communications patterns from voice to text and other Internet mechanisms, actual consumption of voice is declining. Overall time spent using voice communications, for example,  fell by five percent in 2011, Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, reports. “This reflects a 10 percent fall in the volume of calls from landlines, and for the first time ever, a fall in the volume of mobile calls (by just over one percent, in 2011.”

In other words, for the first time ever, fewer phone calls are being made on both fixed and mobile phones, Ofcom reports.

At the same time, where usage of voice is flat to declining, usage of bandwidth is climbing as much as 50 percent a year.

Under such circumstances, capital investment increasingly is dictated by broadband products, not voice or messaging, so revenue recognition also must shift to match the drivers of capital investment, as well.

As was the case for family plans for voice and data, the new plans will, over time, lead to accounts adding more revenue-generating devices. For the new Verizon and AT&T plans, that will mean more data devices to be added to plans, especially tablets. But the new plans also will encourage users to convert to smart phones as well.

The actual revenue impact will be hard to discern, at first, as the plans are constructed in ways that make them revenue neutral, for the most part. Only over time, as more mobile broadband cards and tablets get connected will the changes in data revenues be clearly seen.

Twice as Many Mobile Broadband as Fixed Broadband Accounts in Service Globally

Fixed wired broadband subscriptions reached 314 million in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries at the end of 2011.


Wireless broadband subscriptions reached 667 million, up from 590 million in June 2011. 

The overall share of DSL subscriptions continues to decrease (55.8 percent), to the benefit of cable (30 percent) and fiber-to-the-home subscriptions that now represent 13.7 percent of the total number of fixed broadband subscriptions, OECD says.

Precisely what all that means is not as obvious as it might seem. Some have questioned the methodology, and have for some time. The ranking "per capita" obviously is affected by typical numbers of people living in a household, for example.

 

PayPal Acquires card.io

PayPal has acquired card.io, a San Francisco-based company that provides technology for developers to capture credit card information by using the camera on a smart phone.

Card.io’s client include Uber, LevelUp, TaskRabbit, Lemon and 1-800-Contacts. Developers pay $0.15 for every card they scan.

Using the camera is an easy way to free users from the need to type in strings of digits when they want to enter card information.

Netflix is Cannibalizing Video on Demand

According to researchers at Parks Research, Netflix is gaining momentum, especially in terms of the value-price relationship. While Netflix doesn't lead in terms of picture and sound quality, it clearly is viewed as providing better value for money.

TiVo, PayPal, TRA Tighten Link Between Ad Message and Purchase

The traditional quip about advertising is that "half of it is wasted; I just don't know which half." But the entire movement of advertising these days is towards targeting, tracking and measurement of return on that investment.

Now TiVo, PayPal and TRA will be working together to provide not only a tighter link between message and action, but also a better way to measure those results. TiVo is working with PayPal so users can easily click to buy products they see in TV ads.

Users who like an advertised product can do so with a few clicks of their remote after they set up their accounts. Such ads are not ones that typically run during broadcasts but instead pop up during various interactions such as when shows are paused.

Separately, TiVo has purchased TRA, which supplies a platform that directly links information from the same households as to what viewers watch and what they buy. The idea is for PayPal to use TRA to matche television exposures from 1.5 million TV homes with specific purchase transactions, which then are anonymized.

The result, again, should be better data on advertising effectiveness.

Viacom and DirecTV Eventually Will Settle; Will Consumers Win?

The contract dispute between DirecTV and Viacom that has at least temporarily yanked Viacom content from DirecTV customers will be solved, eventually. What isn't so clear is whether customers will win. Viacom wants to be paid more; DirecTV wants to pay less. Any eventual settlement will result in DirecTV paying more than at present, though not as much as Viacom wants.

But prices will rise. And that means consumer retail prices will rise, as well. And that is the strategic problem TV distributors have been able to resolve. Programmers understandably want to be paid more. But those desires are meeting a growing wall of opposition from consumers, some of whom just don't want the product at all, and others who want only some of the programming.

To be sure, TV distributors are trying to change the "value" part of the value-price equation by adding additional viewing options on PCs, tablets and smart phones. But "price," in an absolute sense, is becoming a bigger problem every year.

One potential solution is for distributors to pay lower fees, one way or the other, either by offering fewer channels, or paying networks less. The former is more likely than the latter, though.

That is why the preferred network practice of requiring distributors to take a "bundle" of channels, rather than allowing distributors to buy single channels, is a key issue. As consumers indicate they want a la carte options, so do video distributors want a la carte.

No matter how the contracts eventually are structured, consumers will "lose," to the extent that prices will climb, as DirecTV is unlikely to want to do without the Viacom networks forever, and will wind up paying more to Viacom for the right to carry the channels.

It always is possible that this particular set of negotiations is the one that will break the recent industry practices by starting to unravel the way networks get carriage on the distribution networks. Someday it will happen. Whether it happens here, or not, is the issue.

Will AT&T Charge Users of FaceTime?

AT&T appears to be testing a method to charge Apple FaceTime users when they use mobile network bandwidth, 9to5mac.com reports. There is no charge when users are on Wi-Fi networks.

Of course, in some cases that will add value for end users. Nor, it should be noted, is such charging a formal violation of existing network neutrality rules, which apply only to fixed network broadband access.

What Mobile Service Providers Can, and Have Done, To Protect Voice and Messaging Revenues

For many years and in many countries, SMS has been an excellent source of revenue for mobile operators, often generating almost 20 percent of revenue, according to Strand Consult. But those days are almost over, many would suggest. The question is whether there is anything at all that  mobile service providers can do about the situation.

In part, the answer always is to find another new revenue source to replace a source that is in decline. The other, short term answer is to try and shore up the value of the endangered product, or change the way the product is packaged and priced. Service providers will probably try to accomplish both tasks: finding replacement sources for the long term and shoring up the value proposition in the short term.

Data Tsunami Could Wipe Out All Telco Profits

Telecom service provider “costs per gigabyte must decrease by 90 percent every three to four years” just to keep service provider revenues and costs in the same relationship as they are now, according to Norman Fekrat, IBM Global Business Services partner and VP. That illustrates the magnitude of changes many believe must be made in the global telecom business.

And the bad news, says Fekrat, is that, at the moment, service provider costs are “increasing when it needs to decrease.”

“The cost structures need to be reduced significantly,” not incrementally, he says.

Whether DirecTV or Viacom Can "Win" in the Long Term is the Real Issue

You can take your pick about which partner--DirecTV or Viacom--has more leverage in the programming dispute that has taken all the Viacom channels off DirecTV, at least temporarily.

Some might argue it is a mistake for DirecTV to risk consumer irritation when some popular channels “go dark,” the theory being that it is the programming people pay for, so one distributor risks losing customers, eventually, should a major network such as Viacom be dropped on a permanent basis.

Some might argue that no matter the outcome, the whole video ecosystem is becoming unworkable. That, at least, was what Robert Johnson, founder of the BET cable channel, recently warned.